Kernow Storm FC

ECNL Regional League Boys · Frontier BU18/19 · 10 teams · Kernow Storm FC (all teams)

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8th

1-0-8 record · 9 played

0.33 points per game

-25 goal diff · 10–35

LLLLLlast 5

0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 8.7

+0.59 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM

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Kernow Storm FC
8th · 0.33 PPG

Arkansas Comets FC
10th · 0.00 PPG

Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex, Field 2 ↗ far trip

33% 19% 48%

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.1 for, 2.6 against · 1.18 expected points)

Season so far	Kernow Storm FC	Arkansas Comets FC
Position	8th	10th
Record (W-D-L)	1-0-8	0-0-11
Points per game	0.33	0.00
Goals for / game	1.1	1.4
Goals against / game	3.9	4.3
Clean sheets	0	0
Held scoreless	3	3
Form (recent first)	L L L L L	L L L L L
Biggest win	3–2 vs Oklahoma Celtic	—
Worst loss	0–6 vs Broken Arrow Soccer Club	1–8 at Arkansas Rising
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-1.96	-1.99
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.59	+0.65

Common opponents: Oklahoma Celtic — we 3–2; they 0–3. Oklahoma Cosmos — we 0–3; they 0–4. FC Tulsa Academy — we 2–4; they 1–4. Arkansas Rising — we 1–5; they 2–8, 1–8. West Side Alliance — we 0–5; they 3–4. Broken Arrow Soccer Club — we 1–3, 0–6; they 2–3, 2–3. OK Energy FC Frontier — we 2–3; they 2–3, 2–4. Tulsa SC — we 1–4; they 0–3.

Game plan

They leak goals — be greedy
Arkansas Comets FC concede 4.3/game; worst result 1–8 at Arkansas Rising.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–3 vs Oklahoma Cosmos, 0–5 at West Side Alliance, 0–6 vs Broken Arrow Soccer Club.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 33%; a draw (19%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Confidence is low on their side
Arkansas Comets FC have lost 11 straight (form: LLLLL).
Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
Away game
Kickoff 01:00 PM at Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Arkansas Comets FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Kernow Storm FC – Arkansas Comets FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 0.40 PPG	8th— holds	8th— holds	8th— holds
Win 0.60 PPG	8th— holds	8th— holds	8th— holds
Draw 0.40 PPG	8th— holds	8th— holds	8th— holds
Loss 0.30 PPG	9th▼ down 1	9th▼ down 1	10th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 8th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

0% top 4

100% below the top 4

8.7 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th <1%
8th 51%
9th 28%
10th 20%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 1.67 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Arkansas Rising	3.00 (+2.67)	1st (2.78)	51 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 48 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	FC Tulsa Academy	2.67 (+2.34)	2nd (2.51)	46 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	Broken Arrow Soccer Club	2.20 (+1.87)	3rd (1.96)	37 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4	Tulsa SC	2.00 (+1.67)	4th (1.86)	33 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5	OK Energy FC Frontier	1.67 (+1.34)	6th (1.34)	28 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
6	West Side Alliance	1.60 (+1.27)	5th (1.63)	26 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
7	Oklahoma Cosmos	1.00 (+0.67)	7th (1.25)	15 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection

How the results connect

96 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Kernow Storm FC to Arkansas Comets FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

42 favour us

12 even

42 favour them

+0.1 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

16 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.10 · 6th hardest of 10

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 01:00 PM	Arkansas Comets FC 10th · 0-0-11 · GD -32	Away far trip Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex	●●●●○ Tough	33%	2–2	1.18	0.42	Upside
Sun Oct 25 01:00 PM	Arkansas Rising 1st · 10-0-0 · GD +40	Away far trip Burns Park	●●●●● Very tough	1%	0–6	0.03	0.38	Upside
Sat Oct 31 02:00 PM	Tulsa SC 4th · 6-2-2 · GD +9	Away far trip Jenks Sports Complex	●●●●● Very tough	6%	0–3	0.29	0.38	Upside
Sun Nov 1 09:00 AM	Oklahoma Cosmos 7th · 3-0-6 · GD -5	Away far trip South Lakes Soccer Complex	●●●●● Very tough	13%	1–3	0.52	0.39	Upside
Sat Nov 14 04:00 PM	West Side Alliance 6th · 5-1-4 · GD +10	Home Rolling Hills Complex	●●●●● Very tough	9%	1–3	0.37	0.39	Upside
Sat Dec 5 04:00 PM	Arkansas Comets FC 10th · 0-0-11 · GD -32	Home Gateway Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	44%	2–2	1.50	0.46	Swing game
Sat Dec 12 03:00 PM	FC Tulsa Academy 2nd · 8-0-1 · GD +24	Away far trip Scheels Sports Complex	●●●●● Very tough	1%	0–5	0.07	0.44	Upside
Sat Feb 6 03:00 PM	OK Energy FC Frontier 5th · 5-0-4 · GD -6	Away far trip North Oklahoma City FC	●●●●● Very tough	14%	1–3	0.55	0.44	Upside
Sun Feb 7 12:00 PM	Oklahoma Celtic 9th · 1-0-8 · GD -28	Away far trip Oklahoma Celtic	●●●○○ Toss-up	43%	1–1	1.50	0.50	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Arkansas Rising

+40

3.00

WWWWW

-0.52

-0.11

100%

1.1

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (10th)	8–1
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (3rd)	5–3
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Tulsa SC (4th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Oklahoma Cosmos (7th)	6–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Kernow Storm FC (8th)	5–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Oklahoma Celtic (9th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	OK Energy FC Frontier (5th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Arkansas Comets FC (10th)	8–2
W	Sun Aug 30	at	FC Tulsa Academy (2nd)	2–0
W	Sat Aug 29	at	West Side Alliance (6th)	4–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs West Side Alliance · Sun Oct 25 vs Kernow Storm FC · Sat Oct 31 at OK Energy FC Frontier See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	West Side Alliance (6th)	4–1	82%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Kernow Storm FC (8th)	6–0	98%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	OK Energy FC Frontier (5th)	4–1	88%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Oklahoma Celtic (9th)	5–0	97%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Oklahoma Cosmos (7th)	4–1	89%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (3rd)	3–1	68%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	Tulsa SC (4th)	2–1	64%
·	Sat Dec 19	vs	FC Tulsa Academy (2nd)	2–1	56%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Tulsa Academy

+24

2.67

WWWWW

-0.03

-0.43

100%

1.9

W	Sun Oct 11	at	Oklahoma Cosmos (7th)	3–1
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	OK Energy FC Frontier (5th)	6–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Oklahoma Cosmos (7th)	4–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (3rd)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Kernow Storm FC (8th)	4–2
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Tulsa SC (4th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	West Side Alliance (6th)	4–0
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Arkansas Rising (1st)	0–2
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (10th)	4–1

Next: Sat Oct 31 at West Side Alliance · Sun Nov 1 vs Broken Arrow Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 vs Oklahoma Celtic See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	West Side Alliance (6th)	2–1	61%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (3rd)	2–1	66%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Oklahoma Celtic (9th)	5–0	96%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	OK Energy FC Frontier (5th)	3–1	80%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Tulsa SC (4th)	2–1	62%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Arkansas Comets FC (10th)	4–1	92%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Kernow Storm FC (8th)	5–0	95%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	Oklahoma Celtic (9th)	4–0	93%
·	Sat Dec 19	at	Arkansas Rising (1st)	1–2	26%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Broken Arrow Soccer Club

+13

2.20

WWWLW

-0.49

+0.35

89%

3.5

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Kernow Storm FC (8th)	6–0
L	Sun Oct 11	at	Arkansas Rising (1st)	3–5
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Arkansas Comets FC (10th)	3–2
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Kernow Storm FC (8th)	3–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (10th)	3–2
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Tulsa Academy (2nd)	1–3
W	Sun Aug 30	at	OK Energy FC Frontier (5th)	4–1
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Oklahoma Celtic (9th)	3–0
W	Sun Aug 23	vs	West Side Alliance (6th)	3–2
D	Sat Aug 22	at	Tulsa SC (4th)	1–1

Next: Sun Nov 1 at FC Tulsa Academy · Sat Nov 7 at West Side Alliance · Sun Dec 6 vs Oklahoma Celtic See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	FC Tulsa Academy (2nd)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	West Side Alliance (6th)	2–2	39%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	Oklahoma Celtic (9th)	4–0	90%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Arkansas Rising (1st)	1–3	17%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	Oklahoma Cosmos (7th)	2–1	55%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	OK Energy FC Frontier (5th)	3–1	71%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	Oklahoma Cosmos (7th)	2–1	65%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Tulsa SC (4th)	1–1	44%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tulsa SC

2.00

DWLWW

-0.31

+0.19

78%

3.9

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Kernow Storm FC (8th)	4–1
W	Sun Oct 11	at	Arkansas Comets FC (10th)	3–0
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Arkansas Rising (1st)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Oklahoma Celtic (9th)	2–0
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	West Side Alliance (6th)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	FC Tulsa Academy (2nd)	0–5
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Oklahoma Celtic (9th)	4–0
W	Sat Aug 29	at	OK Energy FC Frontier (5th)	3–1
W	Sun Aug 23	at	Oklahoma Cosmos (7th)	1–0
D	Sat Aug 22	vs	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (3rd)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Oklahoma Cosmos · Sun Oct 25 vs OK Energy FC Frontier · Sat Oct 31 vs Kernow Storm FC See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Oklahoma Cosmos (7th)	2–1	60%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	OK Energy FC Frontier (5th)	2–1	67%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Kernow Storm FC (8th)	3–0	83%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (10th)	3–0	84%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	FC Tulsa Academy (2nd)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	West Side Alliance (6th)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Arkansas Rising (1st)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (3rd)	1–1	34%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

OK Energy FC Frontier

-6

1.67

WWWLW

-0.29

+0.36

6.3

W	Sat Oct 10	at	Kernow Storm FC (8th)	3–2
L	Sun Oct 4	at	FC Tulsa Academy (2nd)	1–6
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Oklahoma Celtic (9th)	4–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (10th)	4–2
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Arkansas Comets FC (10th)	3–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Arkansas Rising (1st)	0–4
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Oklahoma Cosmos (7th)	4–3
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (3rd)	1–4
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Tulsa SC (4th)	1–3

Next: Sat Sep 26 at West Side Alliance · Sun Oct 25 at Tulsa SC · Wed Oct 28 at Oklahoma Celtic See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 26 (no score yet)	at	West Side Alliance (6th)	2–3	17%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Tulsa SC (4th)	1–2	17%
·	Wed Oct 28	at	Oklahoma Celtic (9th)	3–1	69%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Arkansas Rising (1st)	1–4	5%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	FC Tulsa Academy (2nd)	1–3	10%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	West Side Alliance (6th)	2–3	26%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	Oklahoma Cosmos (7th)	2–2	31%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (3rd)	1–3	15%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Kernow Storm FC (8th)	3–1	73%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

West Side Alliance

+10

1.60

DWWWL

-0.35

+0.15

29%

4.8

L	Sat Oct 10	at	Oklahoma Cosmos (7th)	1–3
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Oklahoma Celtic (9th)	6–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Kernow Storm FC (8th)	5–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Oklahoma Celtic (9th)	7–0
D	Sat Sep 19	at	Tulsa SC (4th)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 12	at	FC Tulsa Academy (2nd)	0–4
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (10th)	4–3
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Arkansas Rising (1st)	1–4
L	Sun Aug 23	at	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (3rd)	2–3
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	Oklahoma Cosmos (7th)	3–2

Next: Sat Sep 26 vs OK Energy FC Frontier · Sat Oct 24 at Arkansas Rising · Sun Oct 25 at Arkansas Comets FC See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 26 (no score yet)	vs	OK Energy FC Frontier (5th)	3–2	70%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Arkansas Rising (1st)	1–4	9%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Arkansas Comets FC (10th)	4–1	81%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC Tulsa Academy (2nd)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (3rd)	2–2	42%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Kernow Storm FC (8th)	3–1	81%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	OK Energy FC Frontier (5th)	3–2	58%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Tulsa SC (4th)	1–1	42%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Oklahoma Cosmos

-5

1.00

WLLWL

+0.54

-0.42

6.5

L	Sun Oct 11	vs	FC Tulsa Academy (2nd)	1–3
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	West Side Alliance (6th)	3–1
L	Sat Oct 3	at	FC Tulsa Academy (2nd)	1–4
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Arkansas Rising (1st)	0–6
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (10th)	4–0
L	Sun Sep 13	at	OK Energy FC Frontier (5th)	3–4
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Kernow Storm FC (8th)	3–0
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	Tulsa SC (4th)	0–1
L	Sat Aug 22	at	West Side Alliance (6th)	2–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Tulsa SC · Sun Nov 1 vs Kernow Storm FC · Sat Nov 21 at Arkansas Rising See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Tulsa SC (4th)	1–2	20%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Kernow Storm FC (8th)	3–1	74%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Arkansas Rising (1st)	1–4	4%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Arkansas Comets FC (10th)	3–1	63%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	OK Energy FC Frontier (5th)	2–2	50%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (3rd)	1–2	27%
·	Sun Jan 24	at	Oklahoma Celtic (9th)	2–1	70%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (3rd)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Oklahoma Celtic (9th)	3–1	78%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Kernow Storm FC

-25

0.33

LLLLL

+0.59

-0.10

8.7

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (3rd)	0–6
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Tulsa SC (4th)	1–4
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	OK Energy FC Frontier (5th)	2–3
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (3rd)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 3	at	West Side Alliance (6th)	0–5
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Arkansas Rising (1st)	1–5
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Tulsa Academy (2nd)	2–4
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Oklahoma Cosmos (7th)	0–3
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	Oklahoma Celtic (9th)	3–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sun Oct 25 at Arkansas Rising · Sat Oct 31 at Tulsa SC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Arkansas Comets FC (10th)	2–2	33%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Arkansas Rising (1st)	0–6	1%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Tulsa SC (4th)	0–3	6%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Oklahoma Cosmos (7th)	1–3	13%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	West Side Alliance (6th)	1–3	9%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (10th)	2–2	44%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	FC Tulsa Academy (2nd)	0–5	1%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	OK Energy FC Frontier (5th)	1–3	14%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	Oklahoma Celtic (9th)	1–1	43%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Oklahoma Celtic

-28

0.33

LLLLL

+0.23

+0.28

9.1

L	Sun Oct 4	vs	West Side Alliance (6th)	0–6
L	Sat Oct 3	at	OK Energy FC Frontier (5th)	1–4
L	Sun Sep 27	at	West Side Alliance (6th)	0–7
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Tulsa SC (4th)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Arkansas Rising (1st)	0–5
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Arkansas Comets FC (10th)	3–0
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Tulsa SC (4th)	0–4
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (3rd)	0–3
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Kernow Storm FC (8th)	2–3

Next: Wed Oct 28 vs OK Energy FC Frontier · Sat Oct 31 vs Arkansas Comets FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Arkansas Rising See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Wed Oct 28	vs	OK Energy FC Frontier (5th)	1–3	16%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (10th)	1–2	34%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Arkansas Rising (1st)	0–5	1%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	FC Tulsa Academy (2nd)	0–5	1%
·	Sun Dec 6	at	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (3rd)	0–4	3%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	FC Tulsa Academy (2nd)	0–4	2%
·	Sun Jan 24	vs	Oklahoma Cosmos (7th)	1–2	14%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Oklahoma Cosmos (7th)	1–3	9%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Kernow Storm FC (8th)	1–1	36%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Arkansas Comets FC

-32

0.00

LLLLL

+0.65

-0.44

9.3

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Arkansas Rising (1st)	1–8
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Tulsa SC (4th)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (3rd)	2–3
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (3rd)	2–3
L	Sun Sep 27	at	OK Energy FC Frontier (5th)	2–4
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Oklahoma Cosmos (7th)	0–4
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	OK Energy FC Frontier (5th)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Oklahoma Celtic (9th)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Arkansas Rising (1st)	2–8
L	Sun Aug 30	at	West Side Alliance (6th)	3–4
L	Sat Aug 29	at	FC Tulsa Academy (2nd)	1–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Kernow Storm FC · Sun Oct 25 vs West Side Alliance · Sat Oct 31 at Oklahoma Celtic See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Kernow Storm FC (8th)	2–2	48%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	West Side Alliance (6th)	1–4	10%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Oklahoma Celtic (9th)	2–1	46%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Tulsa SC (4th)	0–3	6%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	FC Tulsa Academy (2nd)	1–4	3%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Oklahoma Cosmos (7th)	1–3	20%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	Kernow Storm FC (8th)	2–2	37%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.36 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.