Arkansas Rising
ECNL Regional League Boys · Frontier BU18/19 · 10 teams · Arkansas Rising Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:00 PM
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 4–1 (expected goals 4.2 for, 1.5 against · 2.54 expected points)
| Season so far | Arkansas Rising | West Side Alliance |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 10-0-0 | 5-1-4 |
| Points per game | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| Goals for / game | 4.9 | 3.1 |
| Goals against / game | 0.9 | 2.1 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 3 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W W | L W W W D |
| Biggest win | 8–1 vs Arkansas Comets FC | 7–0 vs Oklahoma Celtic |
| Worst loss | — | 0–4 at FC Tulsa Academy |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +2.82 | +0.70 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.52 | -0.35 |
Already played this season: Sat Aug 29 4–1 at West Side Alliance (W)
Common opponents: FC Tulsa Academy — we 2–0; they 0–4. Arkansas Comets FC — we 8–2, 8–1; they 4–3. Oklahoma Celtic — we 5–0; they 7–0, 6–0. Kernow Storm FC — we 5–1; they 5–0. Oklahoma Cosmos — we 6–0; they 3–2, 1–3. Tulsa SC — we 2–1; they 2–2. Broken Arrow Soccer Club — we 5–3; they 2–3.
Game plan
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 82% chance; likely score 4–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the West Side Alliance game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Arkansas Rising – West Side Alliance) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.82 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Loss 2.73 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 4–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 90%
- 2nd 10%
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
81 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link Arkansas Rising to West Side Alliance through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
16 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.11 · 7th hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 02:00 PM |
West Side Alliance 6th · 5-1-4 · GD +10 |
Home Burns Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 82% |
4–1 | 2.54 | 2.96 | Bank it |
| Sun Oct 25 01:00 PM |
Kernow Storm FC 8th · 1-0-8 · GD -25 |
Home Burns Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 98% |
6–0 | 2.96 | 2.96 | Bank it |
| Sat Oct 31 11:00 AM |
OK Energy FC Frontier 5th · 5-0-4 · GD -6 |
Away far trip
Edmond Soccer Club |
●○○○○ Favorable | 88% |
4–1 | 2.71 | 2.94 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 1 02:00 PM |
Oklahoma Celtic 9th · 1-0-8 · GD -28 |
Away far trip
Oklahoma Celtic |
●○○○○ Favorable | 97% |
5–0 | 2.93 | 2.94 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 21 09:00 AM |
Oklahoma Cosmos 7th · 3-0-6 · GD -5 |
Home Burns Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 89% |
4–1 | 2.74 | 2.93 | Bank it |
| Sat Dec 12 01:00 PM |
Broken Arrow Soccer Club 3rd · 7-1-2 · GD +13 |
Away far trip
Indian Springs Soccer Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
3–1 | 2.18 | 2.88 | Swing game |
| Sun Dec 13 02:00 PM |
Tulsa SC 4th · 6-2-2 · GD +9 |
Away far trip
Jenks Sports Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
2–1 | 2.10 | 2.83 | Swing game |
| Sat Dec 19 01:00 PM |
FC Tulsa Academy 2nd · 8-0-1 · GD +24 |
Home Burns Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
2–1 | 1.86 | 2.78 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Arkansas Rising | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 49 | 9 | +40 | 30 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.52 | -0.11 | 100% | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs West Side Alliance · Sun Oct 25 vs Kernow Storm FC · Sat Oct 31 at OK Energy FC Frontier See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | FC Tulsa Academy | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 33 | 9 | +24 | 24 | 2.67 | WWWWW | -0.03 | -0.43 | 100% | 1.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at West Side Alliance · Sun Nov 1 vs Broken Arrow Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 vs Oklahoma Celtic See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Broken Arrow Soccer Club | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 30 | 17 | +13 | 22 | 2.20 | WWWLW | -0.49 | +0.35 | 89% | 3.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at FC Tulsa Academy · Sat Nov 7 at West Side Alliance · Sun Dec 6 vs Oklahoma Celtic See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Tulsa SC | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 12 | +9 | 20 | 2.00 | DWLWW | -0.31 | +0.19 | 78% | 3.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Oklahoma Cosmos · Sun Oct 25 vs OK Energy FC Frontier · Sat Oct 31 vs Kernow Storm FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | OK Energy FC Frontier | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 27 | -6 | 15 | 1.67 | WWWLW | -0.29 | +0.36 | 2% | 6.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 at West Side Alliance · Sun Oct 25 at Tulsa SC · Wed Oct 28 at Oklahoma Celtic See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | West Side Alliance | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 31 | 21 | +10 | 16 | 1.60 | DWWWL | -0.35 | +0.15 | 29% | 4.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 vs OK Energy FC Frontier · Sat Oct 24 at Arkansas Rising · Sun Oct 25 at Arkansas Comets FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Oklahoma Cosmos | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 22 | -5 | 9 | 1.00 | WLLWL | +0.54 | -0.42 | 1% | 6.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Tulsa SC · Sun Nov 1 vs Kernow Storm FC · Sat Nov 21 at Arkansas Rising See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Kernow Storm FC | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 10 | 35 | -25 | 3 | 0.33 | LLLLL | +0.59 | -0.10 | 0% | 8.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sun Oct 25 at Arkansas Rising · Sat Oct 31 at Tulsa SC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Oklahoma Celtic | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 34 | -28 | 3 | 0.33 | LLLLL | +0.23 | +0.28 | 0% | 9.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Wed Oct 28 vs OK Energy FC Frontier · Sat Oct 31 vs Arkansas Comets FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Arkansas Rising See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Arkansas Comets FC | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 15 | 47 | -32 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.65 | -0.44 | 0% | 9.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Kernow Storm FC · Sun Oct 25 vs West Side Alliance · Sat Oct 31 at Oklahoma Celtic See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.36 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.