Tulsa SC

ECNL Regional League Boys · Frontier BU18/19 · 10 teams · Tulsa Soccer Club (all teams)

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4th

6-2-2 record · 10 played

2.00 points per game

+9 goal diff · 21–12

DWLWWlast 5

77% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.0

-0.31 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM

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Tulsa SC
4th · 2.00 PPG

Oklahoma Cosmos
7th · 1.00 PPG

Jenks Sports Complex , Field 7 ↗

60% 20% 20%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.3 for, 1.2 against · 2.00 expected points)

Season so far	Tulsa SC	Oklahoma Cosmos
Position	4th	7th
Record (W-D-L)	6-2-2	3-0-6
Points per game	2.00	1.00
Goals for / game	2.1	1.9
Goals against / game	1.2	2.4
Clean sheets	4	2
Held scoreless	1	2
Form (recent first)	W W L W D	L W L L W
Biggest win	4–0 at Oklahoma Celtic	4–0 vs Arkansas Comets FC
Worst loss	0–5 vs FC Tulsa Academy	0–6 vs Arkansas Rising
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.62	-0.26
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.31	+0.54

Already played this season: Sun Aug 23 1–0 at Oklahoma Cosmos (W)

Common opponents: OK Energy FC Frontier — we 3–1; they 3–4. FC Tulsa Academy — we 0–5; they 1–4, 1–3. West Side Alliance — we 2–2; they 2–3, 3–1. Arkansas Rising — we 1–2; they 0–6. Arkansas Comets FC — we 3–0; they 4–0. Kernow Storm FC — we 4–1; they 3–0.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–5 vs FC Tulsa Academy.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Swing game — small margins
Win 60% / draw 20% / loss 20%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Oklahoma Cosmos game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Tulsa SC – Oklahoma Cosmos) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.09 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds
Win 2.09 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds
Draw 1.91 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds
Loss 1.82 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	5th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 4th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

77% top 4

23% below the top 4

4.0 average finish

1st
2nd 1%
3rd 29%
4th 48%
5th 20%
6th 2%
7th <1%
8th
9th
10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.44 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Arkansas Rising	3.00 (+1.00)	1st (2.78)	34 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	FC Tulsa Academy	2.67 (+0.67)	2nd (2.51)	29 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	Broken Arrow Soccer Club	2.20 (+0.20)	3rd (1.96)	20 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection

How the results connect

74 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Tulsa SC to Oklahoma Cosmos through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

35 favour us

11 even

28 favour them

+0.3 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

16 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.19 · 4th hardest of 10

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 01:00 PM	Oklahoma Cosmos 7th · 3-0-6 · GD -5	Home Jenks Sports Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	60%	2–1	2.00	2.00	Swing game
Sun Oct 25 01:00 PM	OK Energy FC Frontier 5th · 5-0-4 · GD -6	Home Jenks Sports Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	67%	2–1	2.16	2.01	Swing game
Sat Oct 31 02:00 PM	Kernow Storm FC 8th · 1-0-8 · GD -25	Home Jenks Sports Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	83%	3–0	2.60	2.06	Bank it
Sun Nov 1 02:00 PM	Arkansas Comets FC 10th · 0-0-11 · GD -32	Home Jenks Sports Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	84%	3–0	2.61	2.10	Bank it
Sun Nov 15 03:00 PM	FC Tulsa Academy 2nd · 8-0-1 · GD +24	Away Scheels Sports Complex	●●●●● Very tough	18%	1–2	0.75	2.01	Upside
Sat Dec 5 03:00 PM	West Side Alliance 6th · 5-1-4 · GD +10	Away RiverCity Parks	●●●●○ Tough	37%	1–1	1.33	1.97	Upside
Sun Dec 13 02:00 PM	Arkansas Rising 1st · 10-0-0 · GD +40	Home Jenks Sports Complex	●●●●● Very tough	18%	1–2	0.72	1.89	Upside
Sat Feb 6 03:00 PM	Broken Arrow Soccer Club 3rd · 7-1-2 · GD +13	Away Indian Springs Soccer Complex	●●●●○ Tough	34%	1–1	1.24	1.86	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Arkansas Rising

+40

3.00

WWWWW

-0.52

-0.11

100%

1.1

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (10th)	8–1
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (3rd)	5–3
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Tulsa SC (4th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Oklahoma Cosmos (7th)	6–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Kernow Storm FC (8th)	5–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Oklahoma Celtic (9th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	OK Energy FC Frontier (5th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Arkansas Comets FC (10th)	8–2
W	Sun Aug 30	at	FC Tulsa Academy (2nd)	2–0
W	Sat Aug 29	at	West Side Alliance (6th)	4–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs West Side Alliance · Sun Oct 25 vs Kernow Storm FC · Sat Oct 31 at OK Energy FC Frontier See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	West Side Alliance (6th)	4–1	82%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Kernow Storm FC (8th)	6–0	98%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	OK Energy FC Frontier (5th)	4–1	88%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Oklahoma Celtic (9th)	5–0	97%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Oklahoma Cosmos (7th)	4–1	89%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (3rd)	3–1	68%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	Tulsa SC (4th)	2–1	64%
·	Sat Dec 19	vs	FC Tulsa Academy (2nd)	2–1	56%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Tulsa Academy

+24

2.67

WWWWW

-0.03

-0.43

100%

1.9

W	Sun Oct 11	at	Oklahoma Cosmos (7th)	3–1
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	OK Energy FC Frontier (5th)	6–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Oklahoma Cosmos (7th)	4–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (3rd)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Kernow Storm FC (8th)	4–2
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Tulsa SC (4th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	West Side Alliance (6th)	4–0
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Arkansas Rising (1st)	0–2
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (10th)	4–1

Next: Sat Oct 31 at West Side Alliance · Sun Nov 1 vs Broken Arrow Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 vs Oklahoma Celtic See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	West Side Alliance (6th)	2–1	61%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (3rd)	2–1	66%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Oklahoma Celtic (9th)	5–0	96%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	OK Energy FC Frontier (5th)	3–1	80%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Tulsa SC (4th)	2–1	62%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Arkansas Comets FC (10th)	4–1	92%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Kernow Storm FC (8th)	5–0	95%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	Oklahoma Celtic (9th)	4–0	93%
·	Sat Dec 19	at	Arkansas Rising (1st)	1–2	26%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Broken Arrow Soccer Club

+13

2.20

WWWLW

-0.49

+0.35

91%

3.5

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Kernow Storm FC (8th)	6–0
L	Sun Oct 11	at	Arkansas Rising (1st)	3–5
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Arkansas Comets FC (10th)	3–2
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Kernow Storm FC (8th)	3–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (10th)	3–2
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Tulsa Academy (2nd)	1–3
W	Sun Aug 30	at	OK Energy FC Frontier (5th)	4–1
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Oklahoma Celtic (9th)	3–0
W	Sun Aug 23	vs	West Side Alliance (6th)	3–2
D	Sat Aug 22	at	Tulsa SC (4th)	1–1

Next: Sun Nov 1 at FC Tulsa Academy · Sat Nov 7 at West Side Alliance · Sun Dec 6 vs Oklahoma Celtic See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	FC Tulsa Academy (2nd)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	West Side Alliance (6th)	2–2	39%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	Oklahoma Celtic (9th)	4–0	90%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Arkansas Rising (1st)	1–3	17%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	Oklahoma Cosmos (7th)	2–1	55%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	OK Energy FC Frontier (5th)	3–1	71%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	Oklahoma Cosmos (7th)	2–1	65%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Tulsa SC (4th)	1–1	44%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tulsa SC

2.00

DWLWW

-0.31

+0.19

77%

4.0

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Kernow Storm FC (8th)	4–1
W	Sun Oct 11	at	Arkansas Comets FC (10th)	3–0
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Arkansas Rising (1st)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Oklahoma Celtic (9th)	2–0
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	West Side Alliance (6th)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	FC Tulsa Academy (2nd)	0–5
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Oklahoma Celtic (9th)	4–0
W	Sat Aug 29	at	OK Energy FC Frontier (5th)	3–1
W	Sun Aug 23	at	Oklahoma Cosmos (7th)	1–0
D	Sat Aug 22	vs	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (3rd)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Oklahoma Cosmos · Sun Oct 25 vs OK Energy FC Frontier · Sat Oct 31 vs Kernow Storm FC See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Oklahoma Cosmos (7th)	2–1	60%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	OK Energy FC Frontier (5th)	2–1	67%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Kernow Storm FC (8th)	3–0	83%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (10th)	3–0	84%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	FC Tulsa Academy (2nd)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	West Side Alliance (6th)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Arkansas Rising (1st)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (3rd)	1–1	34%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

OK Energy FC Frontier

-6

1.67

WWWLW

-0.29

+0.36

6.3

W	Sat Oct 10	at	Kernow Storm FC (8th)	3–2
L	Sun Oct 4	at	FC Tulsa Academy (2nd)	1–6
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Oklahoma Celtic (9th)	4–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (10th)	4–2
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Arkansas Comets FC (10th)	3–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Arkansas Rising (1st)	0–4
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Oklahoma Cosmos (7th)	4–3
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (3rd)	1–4
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Tulsa SC (4th)	1–3

Next: Sat Sep 26 at West Side Alliance · Sun Oct 25 at Tulsa SC · Wed Oct 28 at Oklahoma Celtic See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 26 (no score yet)	at	West Side Alliance (6th)	2–3	17%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Tulsa SC (4th)	1–2	17%
·	Wed Oct 28	at	Oklahoma Celtic (9th)	3–1	69%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Arkansas Rising (1st)	1–4	5%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	FC Tulsa Academy (2nd)	1–3	10%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	West Side Alliance (6th)	2–3	26%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	Oklahoma Cosmos (7th)	2–2	31%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (3rd)	1–3	15%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Kernow Storm FC (8th)	3–1	73%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

West Side Alliance

+10

1.60

DWWWL

-0.35

+0.15

29%

4.8

L	Sat Oct 10	at	Oklahoma Cosmos (7th)	1–3
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Oklahoma Celtic (9th)	6–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Kernow Storm FC (8th)	5–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Oklahoma Celtic (9th)	7–0
D	Sat Sep 19	at	Tulsa SC (4th)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 12	at	FC Tulsa Academy (2nd)	0–4
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (10th)	4–3
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Arkansas Rising (1st)	1–4
L	Sun Aug 23	at	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (3rd)	2–3
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	Oklahoma Cosmos (7th)	3–2

Next: Sat Sep 26 vs OK Energy FC Frontier · Sat Oct 24 at Arkansas Rising · Sun Oct 25 at Arkansas Comets FC See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 26 (no score yet)	vs	OK Energy FC Frontier (5th)	3–2	70%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Arkansas Rising (1st)	1–4	9%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Arkansas Comets FC (10th)	4–1	81%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC Tulsa Academy (2nd)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (3rd)	2–2	42%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Kernow Storm FC (8th)	3–1	81%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	OK Energy FC Frontier (5th)	3–2	58%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Tulsa SC (4th)	1–1	42%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Oklahoma Cosmos

-5

1.00

WLLWL

+0.54

-0.42

6.5

L	Sun Oct 11	vs	FC Tulsa Academy (2nd)	1–3
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	West Side Alliance (6th)	3–1
L	Sat Oct 3	at	FC Tulsa Academy (2nd)	1–4
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Arkansas Rising (1st)	0–6
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (10th)	4–0
L	Sun Sep 13	at	OK Energy FC Frontier (5th)	3–4
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Kernow Storm FC (8th)	3–0
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	Tulsa SC (4th)	0–1
L	Sat Aug 22	at	West Side Alliance (6th)	2–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Tulsa SC · Sun Nov 1 vs Kernow Storm FC · Sat Nov 21 at Arkansas Rising See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Tulsa SC (4th)	1–2	20%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Kernow Storm FC (8th)	3–1	74%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Arkansas Rising (1st)	1–4	4%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Arkansas Comets FC (10th)	3–1	63%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	OK Energy FC Frontier (5th)	2–2	50%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (3rd)	1–2	27%
·	Sun Jan 24	at	Oklahoma Celtic (9th)	2–1	70%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (3rd)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Oklahoma Celtic (9th)	3–1	78%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Kernow Storm FC

-25

0.33

LLLLL

+0.59

-0.10

8.7

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (3rd)	0–6
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Tulsa SC (4th)	1–4
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	OK Energy FC Frontier (5th)	2–3
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (3rd)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 3	at	West Side Alliance (6th)	0–5
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Arkansas Rising (1st)	1–5
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Tulsa Academy (2nd)	2–4
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Oklahoma Cosmos (7th)	0–3
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	Oklahoma Celtic (9th)	3–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sun Oct 25 at Arkansas Rising · Sat Oct 31 at Tulsa SC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Arkansas Comets FC (10th)	2–2	33%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Arkansas Rising (1st)	0–6	1%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Tulsa SC (4th)	0–3	6%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Oklahoma Cosmos (7th)	1–3	13%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	West Side Alliance (6th)	1–3	9%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (10th)	2–2	44%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	FC Tulsa Academy (2nd)	0–5	1%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	OK Energy FC Frontier (5th)	1–3	14%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	Oklahoma Celtic (9th)	1–1	43%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Oklahoma Celtic

-28

0.33

LLLLL

+0.23

+0.28

9.1

L	Sun Oct 4	vs	West Side Alliance (6th)	0–6
L	Sat Oct 3	at	OK Energy FC Frontier (5th)	1–4
L	Sun Sep 27	at	West Side Alliance (6th)	0–7
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Tulsa SC (4th)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Arkansas Rising (1st)	0–5
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Arkansas Comets FC (10th)	3–0
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Tulsa SC (4th)	0–4
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (3rd)	0–3
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Kernow Storm FC (8th)	2–3

Next: Wed Oct 28 vs OK Energy FC Frontier · Sat Oct 31 vs Arkansas Comets FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Arkansas Rising See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Wed Oct 28	vs	OK Energy FC Frontier (5th)	1–3	16%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (10th)	1–2	34%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Arkansas Rising (1st)	0–5	1%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	FC Tulsa Academy (2nd)	0–5	1%
·	Sun Dec 6	at	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (3rd)	0–4	3%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	FC Tulsa Academy (2nd)	0–4	2%
·	Sun Jan 24	vs	Oklahoma Cosmos (7th)	1–2	14%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Oklahoma Cosmos (7th)	1–3	9%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Kernow Storm FC (8th)	1–1	36%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Arkansas Comets FC

-32

0.00

LLLLL

+0.65

-0.44

9.2

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Arkansas Rising (1st)	1–8
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Tulsa SC (4th)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (3rd)	2–3
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (3rd)	2–3
L	Sun Sep 27	at	OK Energy FC Frontier (5th)	2–4
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Oklahoma Cosmos (7th)	0–4
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	OK Energy FC Frontier (5th)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Oklahoma Celtic (9th)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Arkansas Rising (1st)	2–8
L	Sun Aug 30	at	West Side Alliance (6th)	3–4
L	Sat Aug 29	at	FC Tulsa Academy (2nd)	1–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Kernow Storm FC · Sun Oct 25 vs West Side Alliance · Sat Oct 31 at Oklahoma Celtic See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Kernow Storm FC (8th)	2–2	48%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	West Side Alliance (6th)	1–4	10%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Oklahoma Celtic (9th)	2–1	46%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Tulsa SC (4th)	0–3	6%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	FC Tulsa Academy (2nd)	1–4	3%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Oklahoma Cosmos (7th)	1–3	20%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	Kernow Storm FC (8th)	2–2	37%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.36 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.