Broken Arrow Soccer Club
ECNL Regional League Boys · Frontier BU18/19 · 10 teams · Broken Arrow Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 1, 03:00 PM
Scheels Sports Complex, Field 7 (11v11) ↗
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.5 for, 2.9 against · 0.69 expected points)
| Season so far | Broken Arrow Soccer Club | FC Tulsa Academy |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 7-1-2 | 8-0-1 |
| Points per game | 2.20 | 2.67 |
| Goals for / game | 3.0 | 3.7 |
| Goals against / game | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W L W W W | W W W W W |
| Biggest win | 6–0 at Kernow Storm FC | 5–0 at Tulsa SC |
| Worst loss | 1–3 vs FC Tulsa Academy | 0–2 vs Arkansas Rising |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.84 | +1.95 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.49 | -0.03 |
Already played this season: Sat Sep 26 1–3 vs FC Tulsa Academy (L)
Common opponents: Tulsa SC — we 1–1; they 5–0. West Side Alliance — we 3–2; they 4–0. OK Energy FC Frontier — we 4–1; they 6–1. Arkansas Comets FC — we 3–2, 3–2; they 4–1. Kernow Storm FC — we 3–1, 6–0; they 4–2. Arkansas Rising — we 3–5; they 0–2.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
FC Tulsa Academy score 3.7/game — well above the league's 2.4.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Hard to break down
FC Tulsa Academy concede only 1.0/game with 2 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 18%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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They arrive in form
FC Tulsa Academy have won 7 straight.Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
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Away game
Kickoff 03:00 PM at Scheels Sports Complex.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the FC Tulsa Academy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Broken Arrow Soccer Club – FC Tulsa Academy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 2.00 PPG |
3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 |
| Win 2.27 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Draw 2.09 PPG |
3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 2.00 PPG |
3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd 1%
- 3rd 59%
- 4th 30%
- 5th 9%
- 6th 1%
- 7th <1%
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.56 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arkansas Rising | 3.00 (+0.80) | 1st (2.78) | 32 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | FC Tulsa Academy | 2.67 (+0.47) | 2nd (2.51) | 27 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
How the results connect
75 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link Broken Arrow Soccer Club to FC Tulsa Academy through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
16 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.35 · 2nd hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 1 03:00 PM |
FC Tulsa Academy 2nd · 8-0-1 · GD +24 |
Away Scheels Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
1–2 | 0.69 | 2.06 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 03:00 PM |
West Side Alliance 6th · 5-1-4 · GD +10 |
Away RiverCity Parks |
●●●●○ Tough | 39% |
2–2 | 1.36 | 2.00 | Upside |
| Sun Dec 6 12:00 PM |
Oklahoma Celtic 9th · 1-0-8 · GD -28 |
Home Indian Springs Soccer Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 90% |
4–0 | 2.77 | 2.06 | Bank it |
| Sat Dec 12 01:00 PM |
Arkansas Rising 1st · 10-0-0 · GD +40 |
Home Indian Springs Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 17% |
1–3 | 0.67 | 1.96 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 23 11:00 AM |
Oklahoma Cosmos 7th · 3-0-6 · GD -5 |
Away far trip
South Lakes Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 55% |
2–1 | 1.83 | 1.95 | Swing game |
| Sat Jan 30 03:00 PM |
OK Energy FC Frontier 5th · 5-0-4 · GD -6 |
Home Indian Springs Soccer Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 71% |
3–1 | 2.28 | 1.97 | Bank it |
| Sun Jan 31 03:00 PM |
Oklahoma Cosmos 7th · 3-0-6 · GD -5 |
Home Indian Springs Soccer Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 65% |
2–1 | 2.11 | 1.98 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 6 03:00 PM |
Tulsa SC 4th · 6-2-2 · GD +9 |
Home Indian Springs Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
1–1 | 1.54 | 1.96 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arkansas Rising | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 49 | 9 | +40 | 30 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.52 | -0.11 | 100% | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs West Side Alliance · Sun Oct 25 vs Kernow Storm FC · Sat Oct 31 at OK Energy FC Frontier See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | FC Tulsa Academy | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 33 | 9 | +24 | 24 | 2.67 | WWWWW | -0.03 | -0.43 | 100% | 1.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at West Side Alliance · Sun Nov 1 vs Broken Arrow Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 vs Oklahoma Celtic See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Broken Arrow Soccer Club | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 30 | 17 | +13 | 22 | 2.20 | WWWLW | -0.49 | +0.35 | 90% | 3.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at FC Tulsa Academy · Sat Nov 7 at West Side Alliance · Sun Dec 6 vs Oklahoma Celtic See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Tulsa SC | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 12 | +9 | 20 | 2.00 | DWLWW | -0.31 | +0.19 | 79% | 3.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Oklahoma Cosmos · Sun Oct 25 vs OK Energy FC Frontier · Sat Oct 31 vs Kernow Storm FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | OK Energy FC Frontier | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 27 | -6 | 15 | 1.67 | WWWLW | -0.29 | +0.36 | 2% | 6.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 at West Side Alliance · Sun Oct 25 at Tulsa SC · Wed Oct 28 at Oklahoma Celtic See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | West Side Alliance | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 31 | 21 | +10 | 16 | 1.60 | DWWWL | -0.35 | +0.15 | 28% | 4.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 vs OK Energy FC Frontier · Sat Oct 24 at Arkansas Rising · Sun Oct 25 at Arkansas Comets FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Oklahoma Cosmos | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 22 | -5 | 9 | 1.00 | WLLWL | +0.54 | -0.42 | 1% | 6.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Tulsa SC · Sun Nov 1 vs Kernow Storm FC · Sat Nov 21 at Arkansas Rising See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Kernow Storm FC | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 10 | 35 | -25 | 3 | 0.33 | LLLLL | +0.59 | -0.10 | 0% | 8.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sun Oct 25 at Arkansas Rising · Sat Oct 31 at Tulsa SC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Oklahoma Celtic | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 34 | -28 | 3 | 0.33 | LLLLL | +0.23 | +0.28 | 0% | 9.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Wed Oct 28 vs OK Energy FC Frontier · Sat Oct 31 vs Arkansas Comets FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Arkansas Rising See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Arkansas Comets FC | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 15 | 47 | -32 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.65 | -0.44 | 0% | 9.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Kernow Storm FC · Sun Oct 25 vs West Side Alliance · Sat Oct 31 at Oklahoma Celtic See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.36 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.