Wellington SC
ECNL Regional League Boys · Florida BU17 · 10 teams · Wellington SC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:30 AM
Tropical Park, North ↗ far trip
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 0–4 (expected goals 0.5 for, 4.0 against · 0.10 expected points)
| Season so far | Wellington SC | AC Florida Tropical |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 10th | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-0-5 | 5-1-1 |
| Points per game | 0.50 | 2.29 |
| Goals for / game | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Goals against / game | 3.7 | 0.3 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 5 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | L L W L L | W W D W W |
| Biggest win | 3–0 vs Fort Lauderdale United FC | 5–0 vs Davie United SC |
| Worst loss | 1–7 vs Parkland Soccer Club | 0–1 vs Strikers Miami FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.72 | +1.20 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.19 | +0.01 |
Common opponents: Cape Coral SA — we 0–5; they 1–0. SWFL PREMIER FC — we 1–4; they 3–1. Fort Lauderdale United FC — we 3–0; they 3–0. Strikers Miami FC — we 0–3; they 0–1. Parkland Soccer Club — we 1–7; they 0–0.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
AC Florida Tropical score 2.0/game — well above the league's 1.4.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Hard to break down
AC Florida Tropical concede only 0.3/game with 5 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–5 vs Cape Coral SA, 0–3 at Strikers Miami FC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 2%; a draw (5%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 11:30 AM at Tropical Park.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Davie United SC sit 9th on 0.67 PPG; we are on 0.50.A point moves us above Davie United SC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the AC Florida Tropical game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Wellington SC – AC Florida Tropical) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.43 PPG |
10th— holds | 10th— holds | 10th— holds |
| Win 0.86 PPG |
8th▲ up 2 | 8th▲ up 2 | 10th— holds |
| Draw 0.57 PPG |
10th— holds | 9th▲ up 1 | 10th— holds |
| Loss 0.43 PPG |
10th— holds | 10th— holds | 10th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–4 loss we stay 10th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th <1%
- 7th 1%
- 8th 4%
- 9th 13%
- 10th 82%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.17 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Strikers Miami FC | 2.50 (+2.00) | 1st (2.38) | 42 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | AC Florida Tropical | 2.29 (+1.79) | 2nd (2.26) | 39 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Athletic Club Florida | 1.67 (+1.17) | 4th (1.56) | 28 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection |
| 4 | SWFL PREMIER FC | 1.56 (+1.06) | 5th (1.50) | 26 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
| 5 | Parkland Soccer Club | 1.50 (+1.00) | 3rd (1.70) | 24 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
| 6 | Doral Soccer Club | 1.14 (+0.64) | 6th (1.35) | 18 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 7 | Fort Lauderdale United FC | 1.11 (+0.61) | 8th (0.92) | 17 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection |
| 8 | Cape Coral SA | 0.75 (+0.25) | 7th (1.01) | A point next game |
| 9 | Davie United SC | 0.67 (+0.17) | 9th (0.80) | A point next game |
How the results connect
40 chains · 10 teams
Paths of results that link Wellington SC to AC Florida Tropical through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
13 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.17 · 1st hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 11:30 AM |
AC Florida Tropical 2nd · 5-1-1 · GD +12 |
Away far trip
Tropical Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
0–4 | 0.10 | 0.44 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 10:00 AM |
Doral Soccer Club 6th · 2-2-3 · GD +0 |
Home Village Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
1–2 | 0.61 | 0.46 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 7 03:00 PM |
Doral Soccer Club 6th · 2-2-3 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Divine Savior Academy |
●●●●● Very tough | 10% |
0–2 | 0.44 | 0.46 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 20 04:30 PM |
Davie United SC 9th · 1-1-4 · GD -7 |
Away far trip
Bamford Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–2 | 0.87 | 0.50 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 27 01:00 PM |
Fort Lauderdale United FC 7th · 3-1-5 · GD -12 |
Away far trip
Autonation Field at U School |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
1–2 | 1.06 | 0.55 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 10:00 AM |
Strikers Miami FC 1st · 6-2-0 · GD +14 |
Home Village Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
0–4 | 0.14 | 0.52 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 7 11:00 AM |
Athletic Club Florida 3rd · 3-1-2 · GD +2 |
Away far trip
North Community Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
1–3 | 0.34 | 0.50 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 11:00 AM |
SWFL PREMIER FC 4th · 4-2-3 · GD +2 |
Away far trip
Lakewood Ranch Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
1–3 | 0.39 | 0.50 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 03:00 PM |
Cape Coral SA 8th · 2-0-6 · GD -3 |
Away far trip
Cape Coral Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–2 | 0.58 | 0.50 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 02:00 PM |
AC Florida Tropical 2nd · 5-1-1 · GD +12 |
Home Village Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
0–3 | 0.16 | 0.48 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 02:00 PM |
Davie United SC 9th · 1-1-4 · GD -7 |
Home Village Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
1–2 | 1.13 | 0.52 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 01:30 PM |
Parkland Soccer Club 5th · 3-6-1 · GD +8 |
Away far trip
Terramar Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
0–3 | 0.21 | 0.50 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Strikers Miami FC | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 5 | +14 | 20 | 2.50 | WWWWW | -0.07 | -0.28 | 100% | 1.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Doral Soccer Club · Sun Feb 7 at Davie United SC · Sun Feb 28 vs Fort Lauderdale United FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | AC Florida Tropical | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 2 | +12 | 16 | 2.29 | WWDWW | +0.01 | -0.26 | 100% | 1.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Wellington SC · Sun Oct 25 at Davie United SC · Sun Nov 1 vs Parkland Soccer Club See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Athletic Club Florida | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 10 | 1.67 | WLLWW | -0.27 | +0.05 | 53% | 4.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Cape Coral SA · Sat Dec 5 at AC Florida Tropical · Sat Feb 20 at Doral Soccer Club See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | SWFL PREMIER FC | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 14 | 1.56 | WLWLL | +0.01 | -0.03 | 43% | 4.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Cape Coral SA · Sat Feb 27 at Athletic Club Florida · Sun Feb 28 at AC Florida Tropical See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Parkland Soccer Club | 10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 15 | 1.50 | DDWDL | +0.11 | -0.37 | 85% | 3.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Davie United SC · Sun Nov 1 at AC Florida Tropical · Sat Mar 6 vs Davie United SC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Doral Soccer Club | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 8 | +0 | 8 | 1.14 | LWLDW | +0.06 | -0.10 | 18% | 5.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Strikers Miami FC · Sun Nov 1 at Wellington SC · Sat Feb 6 vs Davie United SC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Fort Lauderdale United FC | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 19 | -12 | 10 | 1.11 | LLDLL | +0.12 | +0.09 | 0% | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Feb 27 vs Wellington SC · Sun Feb 28 at Strikers Miami FC · Sat Mar 6 vs Doral Soccer Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Cape Coral SA | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 6 | 0.75 | WLLLL | +0.02 | +0.03 | 1% | 7.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Athletic Club Florida · Sun Oct 25 vs SWFL PREMIER FC · Sat Feb 27 at AC Florida Tropical See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Davie United SC | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 4 | 0.67 | DLLWL | +0.10 | +0.07 | 0% | 8.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Parkland Soccer Club · Sun Oct 25 vs AC Florida Tropical · Sat Feb 6 at Doral Soccer Club See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Wellington SC | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 22 | -16 | 3 | 0.50 | LLWLL | +0.19 | +0.17 | 0% | 9.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at AC Florida Tropical · Sun Nov 1 vs Doral Soccer Club · Sun Feb 7 at Doral Soccer Club See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.43 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.