AC Florida Tropical
ECNL Regional League Boys · Florida BU17 · 10 teams · Athletic Club Florida (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:30 AM
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 4–0 (expected goals 4.0 for, 0.5 against · 2.86 expected points)
| Season so far | AC Florida Tropical | Wellington SC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2nd | 10th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-1-1 | 1-0-5 |
| Points per game | 2.29 | 0.50 |
| Goals for / game | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.3 | 3.7 |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | W W D W W | L L W L L |
| Biggest win | 5–0 vs Davie United SC | 3–0 vs Fort Lauderdale United FC |
| Worst loss | 0–1 vs Strikers Miami FC | 1–7 vs Parkland Soccer Club |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.20 | -1.72 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.01 | +0.19 |
Common opponents: Strikers Miami FC — we 0–1; they 0–3. Fort Lauderdale United FC — we 3–0; they 3–0. Parkland Soccer Club — we 0–0; they 1–7. Cape Coral SA — we 1–0; they 0–5. SWFL PREMIER FC — we 3–1; they 1–4.
Game plan
-
They leak goals — be greedy
Wellington SC concede 3.7/game; worst result 1–7 vs Parkland Soccer Club.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
-
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–1 vs Strikers Miami FC, 0–0 at Parkland Soccer Club.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 94% chance; likely score 4–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Wellington SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (AC Florida Tropical – Wellington SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.38 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Win 2.38 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Draw 2.13 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Loss 2.00 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 4–0 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 35%
- 2nd 62%
- 3rd 4%
- 4th <1%
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.72 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Strikers Miami FC | 2.50 (+0.21) | 1st (2.38) | 29 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
How the results connect
40 chains · 10 teams
Paths of results that link AC Florida Tropical to Wellington SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
13 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.26 · 8th hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 11:30 AM |
Wellington SC 10th · 1-0-5 · GD -16 |
Home Tropical Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 94% |
4–0 | 2.86 | 2.36 | Bank it |
| Sun Oct 25 03:15 PM |
Davie United SC 9th · 1-1-4 · GD -7 |
Away far trip
Bamford Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 77% |
2–0 | 2.46 | 2.37 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 1 11:45 AM |
Parkland Soccer Club 5th · 3-6-1 · GD +8 |
Home Tropical Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
1–0 | 1.84 | 2.32 | Swing game |
| Sat Dec 5 11:45 AM |
Athletic Club Florida 3rd · 3-1-2 · GD +2 |
Home Tropical Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
1–0 | 2.19 | 2.30 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 27 11:30 AM |
Cape Coral SA 8th · 2-0-6 · GD -3 |
Home Amelia Earhart |
●●○○○ Lean win | 73% |
2–0 | 2.38 | 2.31 | Bank it |
| Sun Feb 28 11:30 AM |
SWFL PREMIER FC 4th · 4-2-3 · GD +2 |
Home Amelia Earhart |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
1–0 | 2.20 | 2.30 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 6 11:00 AM |
Athletic Club Florida 3rd · 3-1-2 · GD +2 |
Away far trip
North Community Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 58% |
1–0 | 1.99 | 2.28 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
Strikers Miami FC 1st · 6-2-0 · GD +14 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
1–1 | 1.34 | 2.22 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 09:00 AM |
Fort Lauderdale United FC 7th · 3-1-5 · GD -12 |
Away far trip
Autonation Field at U School |
●○○○○ Favorable | 80% |
2–0 | 2.54 | 2.24 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 4 04:00 PM |
Doral Soccer Club 6th · 2-2-3 · GD +0 |
Away Morgan Levy Park Doral |
●●○○○ Lean win | 58% |
1–0 | 2.01 | 2.22 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 02:00 PM |
Wellington SC 10th · 1-0-5 · GD -16 |
Away far trip
Village Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 90% |
3–0 | 2.77 | 2.26 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Strikers Miami FC | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 5 | +14 | 20 | 2.50 | WWWWW | -0.07 | -0.28 | 100% | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Doral Soccer Club · Sun Feb 7 at Davie United SC · Sun Feb 28 vs Fort Lauderdale United FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | AC Florida Tropical | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 2 | +12 | 16 | 2.29 | WWDWW | +0.01 | -0.26 | 100% | 1.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Wellington SC · Sun Oct 25 at Davie United SC · Sun Nov 1 vs Parkland Soccer Club See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Athletic Club Florida | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 10 | 1.67 | WLLWW | -0.27 | +0.05 | 54% | 4.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Cape Coral SA · Sat Dec 5 at AC Florida Tropical · Sat Feb 20 at Doral Soccer Club See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | SWFL PREMIER FC | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 14 | 1.56 | WLWLL | +0.01 | -0.03 | 39% | 4.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Cape Coral SA · Sat Feb 27 at Athletic Club Florida · Sun Feb 28 at AC Florida Tropical See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Parkland Soccer Club | 10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 15 | 1.50 | DDWDL | +0.11 | -0.37 | 84% | 3.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Davie United SC · Sun Nov 1 at AC Florida Tropical · Sat Mar 6 vs Davie United SC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Doral Soccer Club | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 8 | +0 | 8 | 1.14 | LWLDW | +0.06 | -0.10 | 21% | 5.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Strikers Miami FC · Sun Nov 1 at Wellington SC · Sat Feb 6 vs Davie United SC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Fort Lauderdale United FC | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 19 | -12 | 10 | 1.11 | LLDLL | +0.12 | +0.09 | 0% | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Feb 27 vs Wellington SC · Sun Feb 28 at Strikers Miami FC · Sat Mar 6 vs Doral Soccer Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Cape Coral SA | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 6 | 0.75 | WLLLL | +0.02 | +0.03 | 1% | 7.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Athletic Club Florida · Sun Oct 25 vs SWFL PREMIER FC · Sat Feb 27 at AC Florida Tropical See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | Davie United SC | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 4 | 0.67 | DLLWL | +0.10 | +0.07 | 0% | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Parkland Soccer Club · Sun Oct 25 vs AC Florida Tropical · Sat Feb 6 at Doral Soccer Club See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | Wellington SC | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 22 | -16 | 3 | 0.50 | LLWLL | +0.19 | +0.17 | 0% | 9.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at AC Florida Tropical · Sun Nov 1 vs Doral Soccer Club · Sun Feb 7 at Doral Soccer Club See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.43 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.