SWFL PREMIER FC
ECNL Regional League Boys · Florida BU17 · 10 teams · Florida Premier FC (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 12:00 PM
Festival Park, Field 2 ↗ far trip
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.4 for, 1.2 against · 1.50 expected points)
| Season so far | SWFL PREMIER FC | Cape Coral SA |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 8th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-2-3 | 2-0-6 |
| Points per game | 1.56 | 0.75 |
| Goals for / game | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Goals against / game | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 3 | 4 |
| Form (recent first) | L L W L W | L L L L W |
| Biggest win | 4–1 at Fort Lauderdale United FC | 5–0 at Wellington SC |
| Worst loss | 0–3 vs Strikers Miami FC | 0–2 at SWFL PREMIER FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.13 | -0.24 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.01 | +0.02 |
Already played this season: Sun Aug 30 2–0 vs Cape Coral SA (W)
Common opponents: Davie United SC — we 0–0; they 2–1. Fort Lauderdale United FC — we 4–1; they 0–1. Parkland Soccer Club — we 1–1; they 1–2. Wellington SC — we 4–1; they 5–0. Strikers Miami FC — we 0–3; they 1–3. Doral Soccer Club — we 1–0; they 0–2. AC Florida Tropical — we 1–3; they 0–1.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–0 at Davie United SC, 0–3 vs Strikers Miami FC, 0–2 vs Athletic Club Florida.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 41%; a draw (26%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Confidence is low on their side
Cape Coral SA have lost 4 straight (form: WLLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
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Away game
Kickoff 12:00 PM at Festival Park.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Athletic Club Florida sit 3rd on 1.67 PPG; we are on 1.56.A point moves us above Athletic Club Florida on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Cape Coral SA game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SWFL PREMIER FC – Cape Coral SA) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.50 PPG |
5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.70 PPG |
3rd▲ up 1 | 3rd▲ up 1 | 4th— holds |
| Draw 1.50 PPG |
5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.40 PPG |
5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd 14%
- 4th 27%
- 5th 34%
- 6th 20%
- 7th 4%
- 8th 1%
- 9th <1%
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.28 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Strikers Miami FC | 2.50 (+0.94) | 1st (2.38) | 31 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | AC Florida Tropical | 2.29 (+0.73) | 2nd (2.26) | 28 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 3 | Athletic Club Florida | 1.67 (+0.11) | 4th (1.56) | A point next game |
How the results connect
47 chains · 10 teams
Paths of results that link SWFL PREMIER FC to Cape Coral SA through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
13 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.03 · 6th hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 12:00 PM |
Cape Coral SA 8th · 2-0-6 · GD -3 |
Away far trip
Festival Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
1–1 | 1.50 | 1.55 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 27 09:00 AM |
Athletic Club Florida 3rd · 3-1-2 · GD +2 |
Away far trip
Mullins Park · turf |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–1 | 1.20 | 1.52 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 28 11:30 AM |
AC Florida Tropical 2nd · 5-1-1 · GD +12 |
Away far trip
Amelia Earhart |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
0–1 | 0.58 | 1.44 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 01:00 PM |
Fort Lauderdale United FC 7th · 3-1-5 · GD -12 |
Home Lakewood Ranch Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
2–0 | 2.20 | 1.50 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 14 09:00 AM |
Davie United SC 9th · 1-1-4 · GD -7 |
Home Lakewood Ranch Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 62% |
1–0 | 2.06 | 1.54 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 11:00 AM |
Wellington SC 10th · 1-0-5 · GD -16 |
Home Lakewood Ranch Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 79% |
3–1 | 2.49 | 1.60 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 4 09:00 AM |
Parkland Soccer Club 5th · 3-6-1 · GD +8 |
Home Lakewood Ranch Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
1–1 | 1.10 | 1.57 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
Doral Soccer Club 6th · 2-2-3 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–1 | 1.28 | 1.55 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
Strikers Miami FC 1st · 6-2-0 · GD +14 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
0–2 | 0.59 | 1.50 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Strikers Miami FC | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 5 | +14 | 20 | 2.50 | WWWWW | -0.07 | -0.28 | 100% | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Doral Soccer Club · Sun Feb 7 at Davie United SC · Sun Feb 28 vs Fort Lauderdale United FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | AC Florida Tropical | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 2 | +12 | 16 | 2.29 | WWDWW | +0.01 | -0.26 | 100% | 1.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Wellington SC · Sun Oct 25 at Davie United SC · Sun Nov 1 vs Parkland Soccer Club See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Athletic Club Florida | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 10 | 1.67 | WLLWW | -0.27 | +0.05 | 55% | 4.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Cape Coral SA · Sat Dec 5 at AC Florida Tropical · Sat Feb 20 at Doral Soccer Club See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | SWFL PREMIER FC | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 14 | 1.56 | WLWLL | +0.01 | -0.03 | 42% | 4.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Cape Coral SA · Sat Feb 27 at Athletic Club Florida · Sun Feb 28 at AC Florida Tropical See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Parkland Soccer Club | 10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 15 | 1.50 | DDWDL | +0.11 | -0.37 | 84% | 3.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Davie United SC · Sun Nov 1 at AC Florida Tropical · Sat Mar 6 vs Davie United SC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Doral Soccer Club | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 8 | +0 | 8 | 1.14 | LWLDW | +0.06 | -0.10 | 18% | 5.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Strikers Miami FC · Sun Nov 1 at Wellington SC · Sat Feb 6 vs Davie United SC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Fort Lauderdale United FC | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 19 | -12 | 10 | 1.11 | LLDLL | +0.12 | +0.09 | 0% | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Feb 27 vs Wellington SC · Sun Feb 28 at Strikers Miami FC · Sat Mar 6 vs Doral Soccer Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Cape Coral SA | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 6 | 0.75 | WLLLL | +0.02 | +0.03 | 1% | 7.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Athletic Club Florida · Sun Oct 25 vs SWFL PREMIER FC · Sat Feb 27 at AC Florida Tropical See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Davie United SC | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 4 | 0.67 | DLLWL | +0.10 | +0.07 | 0% | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Parkland Soccer Club · Sun Oct 25 vs AC Florida Tropical · Sat Feb 6 at Doral Soccer Club See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Wellington SC | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 22 | -16 | 3 | 0.50 | LLWLL | +0.19 | +0.17 | 0% | 9.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at AC Florida Tropical · Sun Nov 1 vs Doral Soccer Club · Sun Feb 7 at Doral Soccer Club See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.43 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.