Wellington SC

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Tropical Park, South ↗ far trip

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.6 for, 1.1 against · 2.25 expected points)

Common opponents: Cape Coral SA — we 1–3; they 1–2. SWFL PREMIER FC — we 1–1; they 2–4. Fort Lauderdale United FC — we 0–2; they 0–4. Strikers Miami FC — we 0–1; they 0–0. Parkland Soccer Club — we 2–0; they 0–2.

• They struggle to score
  AC Florida Tropical average 0.7 goals/game (league avg 1.5); blanked in 4 of 7.

  A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  AC Florida Tropical concede 2.7/game; worst result 0–5 vs Davie United SC.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–2 vs Fort Lauderdale United FC, 0–1 at Strikers Miami FC.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Swing game — small margins
  Win 69% / draw 16% / loss 14%.

  Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

• Confidence is low on their side
  AC Florida Tropical have lost 5 straight (form: LLLLL).

  Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

• Away game
  Kickoff 11:30 AM at Tropical Park.

  Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

• What a win does
  Davie United SC sit 5th on 1.40 PPG; we are on 1.17.

  A point moves us above Davie United SC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the AC Florida Tropical game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Wellington SC – AC Florida Tropical) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

1. 1st 1%
2. 2nd 2%
3. 3rd 6%
4. 4th 13%
5. 5th 22%
6. 6th 32%
7. 7th 16%
8. 8th 6%
9. 9th 2%
10. 10th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.39 PPG if we win out).