Cape Coral SA
ECNL Regional League Boys · Florida BU16 · 10 teams · Cape Coral Soccer (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.7 for, 0.9 against · 2.37 expected points)
| Season so far | Cape Coral SA | Athletic Club Florida |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 9th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-2-1 | 1-1-3 |
| Points per game | 1.83 | 0.80 |
| Goals for / game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Goals against / game | 0.7 | 3.6 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | W D L W W | L W D L L |
| Biggest win | 3–1 at Wellington SC | 3–1 at Fort Lauderdale United FC |
| Worst loss | 0–1 vs Doral Soccer Club | 2–8 at Wellington SC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.42 | -1.16 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.05 | +0.32 |
Common opponents: Wellington SC — we 3–1; they 2–8. Parkland Soccer Club — we 2–0; they 0–0. Strikers Miami FC — we 0–0; they 2–5.
Game plan
-
They leak goals — be greedy
Athletic Club Florida concede 3.6/game; worst result 2–8 at Wellington SC.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–1 vs Doral Soccer Club, 0–0 vs Strikers Miami FC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 74% chance; likely score 2–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Athletic Club Florida game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Cape Coral SA – Athletic Club Florida) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.00 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Win 2.00 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Draw 1.71 PPG |
3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.57 PPG |
4th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 2 | 5th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–0 win we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 7%
- 2nd 19%
- 3rd 27%
- 4th 23%
- 5th 15%
- 6th 7%
- 7th 2%
- 8th <1%
- 9th
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.61 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Doral Soccer Club | 2.43 (+0.60) | 1st (2.09) | 33 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 2 | Strikers Miami FC | 2.14 (+0.31) | 2nd (1.94) | 28 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
How the results connect
26 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link Cape Coral SA to Athletic Club Florida through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
13 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.04 · 8th hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM |
Athletic Club Florida 9th · 1-1-3 · GD -11 |
Home Festival Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 74% |
2–0 | 2.37 | 1.91 | Bank it |
| Sun Oct 25 02:00 PM |
SWFL PREMIER FC 8th · 1-4-3 · GD -3 |
Home Festival Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
1–0 | 1.93 | 1.91 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 1 01:00 PM |
Fort Lauderdale United FC 4th · 3-2-2 · GD +5 |
Away far trip
Wolf Field at U School |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
0–1 | 1.30 | 1.84 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 21 12:00 PM |
Davie United SC 5th · 2-1-2 · GD +6 |
Away far trip
Bamford Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
1–1 | 1.24 | 1.78 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 27 11:30 AM |
AC Florida Tropical 10th · 0-2-5 · GD -14 |
Away far trip
Amelia Earhart |
●●○○○ Lean win | 69% |
2–0 | 2.25 | 1.83 | Swing game |
| Sun Feb 28 01:00 PM |
Athletic Club Florida 9th · 1-1-3 · GD -11 |
Away far trip
Mullins Park · turf |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
2–1 | 2.16 | 1.86 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 03:00 PM |
Davie United SC 5th · 2-1-2 · GD +6 |
Home Pelican Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
1–1 | 1.48 | 1.83 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 11:00 AM |
Fort Lauderdale United FC 4th · 3-2-2 · GD +5 |
Home Cape Coral Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
1–0 | 1.50 | 1.80 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 11:00 AM |
Parkland Soccer Club 7th · 2-4-4 · GD -7 |
Home Cape Coral Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 58% |
1–0 | 2.01 | 1.82 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 4 01:00 PM |
Wellington SC 6th · 2-1-3 · GD +3 |
Home Cape Coral Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
1–1 | 1.68 | 1.81 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
Strikers Miami FC 2nd · 4-3-0 · GD +9 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 24% |
0–1 | 1.04 | 1.76 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 05:00 PM |
Doral Soccer Club 1st · 5-2-0 · GD +8 |
Away far trip
Divine Savior Academy |
●●●●○ Tough | 27% |
0–1 | 1.10 | 1.73 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Doral Soccer Club | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 17 | 2.43 | WWWDW | -0.14 | -0.03 | 98% | 1.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Wellington SC · Sun Nov 22 at Strikers Miami FC · Sat Feb 6 vs Davie United SC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Strikers Miami FC | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 15 | 2.14 | DWDWW | -0.40 | +0.14 | 94% | 2.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at Fort Lauderdale United FC · Sun Nov 22 vs Doral Soccer Club · Sun Feb 7 at Davie United SC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Cape Coral SA | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 11 | 1.83 | WWLDW | -0.05 | -0.04 | 75% | 3.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Athletic Club Florida · Sun Oct 25 vs SWFL PREMIER FC · Sun Nov 1 at Fort Lauderdale United FC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Fort Lauderdale United FC | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 11 | 1.57 | LWWDL | -0.22 | +0.08 | 46% | 4.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Cape Coral SA · Sat Nov 14 vs Strikers Miami FC · Sat Feb 27 vs Wellington SC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Davie United SC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 7 | 1.40 | LDWLW | -0.35 | +0.03 | 59% | 4.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Parkland Soccer Club · Sun Oct 25 vs AC Florida Tropical · Sat Feb 6 at Doral Soccer Club See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Wellington SC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 7 | 1.17 | LDLLW | -0.03 | -0.01 | 23% | 5.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at AC Florida Tropical · Sun Nov 1 vs Doral Soccer Club · Sun Feb 7 at Doral Soccer Club See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Parkland Soccer Club | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 10 | 1.00 | WDLDL | +0.16 | -0.05 | 0% | 7.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Davie United SC · Sun Nov 1 at AC Florida Tropical · Sat Mar 6 vs Davie United SC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | SWFL PREMIER FC | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 7 | 0.88 | LDLLW | +0.15 | -0.09 | 3% | 7.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Athletic Club Florida · Sun Oct 25 at Cape Coral SA · Sat Feb 27 at Athletic Club Florida See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Athletic Club Florida | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 4 | 0.80 | LLDWL | +0.32 | +0.07 | 0% | 8.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at SWFL PREMIER FC · Sat Oct 24 at Cape Coral SA · Sat Dec 5 at AC Florida Tropical See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | AC Florida Tropical | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 19 | -14 | 2 | 0.29 | LLLLL | +0.31 | +0.04 | 0% | 9.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Wellington SC · Sun Oct 25 at Davie United SC · Sun Nov 1 vs Parkland Soccer Club See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.53 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.