TableChase Clubs

Tulsa SC

ECNL Boys · Texas BU14 · 20 teams · Tulsa Soccer Club (all teams)

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3rd
7-3-1 record · 11 played
2.18 points per game
+18 goal diff · 29–11
WWWDWlast 5
86% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.2
-0.30 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:00 PM

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Tulsa SC
3rd · 2.18 PPG
vs
Dallas Texans Academy
1st · 3.00 PPG

Jenks Sports Complex , Field 10 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.4 for, 2.8 against · 0.67 expected points)

Season so farTulsa SCDallas Texans Academy
Position3rd1st
Record (W-D-L)7-3-17-0-0
Points per game2.183.00
Goals for / game2.65.7
Goals against / game1.00.6
Clean sheets35
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W D W W WW W W W W
Biggest win5–0 vs San Antonio City SC9–0 vs FC Dallas Youth White
Worst loss1–2 vs HTX—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.20+3.43
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.30-0.29

Common opponents: DKSC — we 1–1; they 7–0.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Dallas Texans Academy score 5.7/game — well above the league's 1.9.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    Dallas Texans Academy concede only 0.6/game with 5 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 17%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    Dallas Texans Academy have won 7 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Dallas Texans Academy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Tulsa SC – Dallas Texans Academy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 11 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 2.00 PPG
3rd— holds 3rd— holds 4th▼ down 1
Win
2.25 PPG
3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Draw
2.08 PPG
3rd— holds 3rd— holds 4th▼ down 1
Loss
2.00 PPG
3rd— holds 3rd— holds 4th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–2 loss we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
86% top 4
15% below the top 4
3.2 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 35%
  3. 3rd 33%
  4. 4th 17%
  5. 5th 9%
  6. 6th 4%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th
  18. 18th
  19. 19th
  20. 20th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.53 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Dallas Texans Academy 3.00 (+0.82) 1st (2.82) 33 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Lonestar ATX Red 2.44 (+0.26) 2nd (2.17) 23 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection

How the results connect

25 chains · 16 teams

Paths of results that link Tulsa SC to Dallas Texans Academy through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
1 even
22 favour them
-4.2 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–1 0–7 2–0 2–3 0–1 3–1 5–1 0–7 2–2 1–0 0–3 5–0 0–0 5–1 2–2 1–7 4–0 2–7 3–0 1–0 1–2 1–1 0–2 1–2 2–1 3–6 Tulsa SC 3rd DKSC 12th Lonestar ATX Royal 11th Sting 8th Real Colorado Acade… 13th San Antonio City SC 19th SAFC 9th OK Energy FC Academy 14th Lonestar ATX Red 2nd HTX 4th FC Dallas Youth Red 6th Dallas Texans 16th RISE SC 18th Albion Hurricanes FC 10th Solar SC Academy 5th Dallas Texans Acade… 1st

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

14 game days

1st 10th 20th Sep 5 Sep 13 Sep 26 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.19 · 2nd hardest of 20

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
03:00 PM
Dallas Texans Academy
1st · 7-0-0 · GD +36
Home
Jenks Sports Complex
●●●●● Very tough
17%
1–2 0.67 2.06 Upside
Sun Oct 25
01:00 PM
Dallas Texans
16th · 1-2-4 · GD -13
Home
Jenks Sports Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
86%
3–0 2.67 2.10 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
11:00 AM
Albion Hurricanes FC
10th · 2-3-2 · GD -5
Away far trip
Campbell Road Sports Park
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
3–1 2.24 2.11 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
09:00 AM
RISE SC
18th · 1-1-5 · GD -10
Away far trip
South Campus
●●○○○ Lean win
74%
2–0 2.39 2.13 Bank it
Sat Nov 14
11:00 AM
Solar SC Academy
5th · 4-1-2 · GD +10
Home
Jenks Sports Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
2–1 1.74 2.11 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
09:00 AM
SOLAR SC
7th · 4-0-3 · GD +1
Home
Jenks Sports Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
72%
2–1 2.30 2.12 Bank it
Sun Feb 7
01:00 PM
FC Dallas Youth White
17th · 1-2-4 · GD -14
Away far trip
Toyota Soccer Center
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
3–1 2.46 2.14 Bank it
Sun Feb 21
11:00 AM
FC Dallas Youth Red
6th · 4-2-2 · GD +7
Home
Jenks Sports Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
1–1 1.75 2.12 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Dallas Texans Academy 7700 404+36 213.00 WWWWW -0.29 -0.16 100% 1.0
2 Lonestar ATX Red 9711 218+13 222.44 DWWLW -0.18 +0.05 87% 3.1
3 Tulsa SC 11731 2911+18 242.18 WWWDW -0.30 +0.19 86% 3.2
4 HTX 8431 1914+5 151.88 WDLWW +0.01 -0.04 20% 6.2
5 Solar SC Academy 7412 2010+10 131.86 LWWWL +0.08 -0.14 50% 4.8
6 FC Dallas Youth Red 8422 1710+7 141.75 WWWLW +0.16 -0.22 39% 5.1
7 SOLAR SC 7403 1413+1 121.71 WWWLL -0.56 +0.33 1% 10.7
8 Sting 10523 2113+8 171.70 WDWWW -0.05 -0.05 13% 6.5
9 SAFC 6231 129+3 91.50 DDLWW -0.39 +0.12 4% 8.6
10 Albion Hurricanes FC 7232 1621-5 91.29 DWDLW +0.37 -0.18 0% 11.4
11 Lonestar ATX Royal 9324 1313+0 111.22 WLLLL -0.05 +0.05 0% 11.5
12 DKSC 10334 1922-3 121.20 LWWWL +0.47 -0.55 1% 9.9
13 Real Colorado Academy 8224 1416-2 81.00 DLLDW +0.02 -0.03 0% 12.0
14 OK Energy FC Academy 12246 1636-20 100.83 LWLDL -0.01 +0.11 0% 16.5
15 FC Westlake 8134 1012-2 60.75 DLLLW +0.01 +0.02 0% 13.5
16 Dallas Texans 7124 922-13 50.71 LLLWL +0.33 -0.12 0% 16.1
17 FC Dallas Youth White 7124 923-14 50.71 DLWLL +0.62 -0.32 0% 14.6
18 RISE SC 7115 414-10 40.57 LLDLL +0.16 -0.01 0% 17.0
19 San Antonio City SC 6024 117-16 20.33 DDLLL -0.09 +0.16 0% 19.2
20 Colorado Storm 6015 218-16 10.17 LLLDL +0.24 -0.01 0% 19.2

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.88 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.