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Dallas Texans Academy

ECNL Boys · Texas BU14 · 20 teams · Dallas Texans (all teams)

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1st
7-0-0 record · 7 played
3.00 points per game
+36 goal diff · 40–4
WWWWWlast 5
100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.0
-0.29 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:00 PM

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Dallas Texans Academy
1st · 3.00 PPG
at
Tulsa SC
3rd · 2.18 PPG

Jenks Sports Complex , Field 10 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.8 for, 1.4 against · 2.17 expected points)

Season so farDallas Texans AcademyTulsa SC
Position1st3rd
Record (W-D-L)7-0-07-3-1
Points per game3.002.18
Goals for / game5.72.6
Goals against / game0.61.0
Clean sheets53
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W W W W WW D W W W
Biggest win9–0 vs FC Dallas Youth White5–0 vs San Antonio City SC
Worst loss—1–2 vs HTX
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+3.43+1.20
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.29-0.30

Common opponents: DKSC — we 7–0; they 1–1.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Tulsa SC score 2.6/game — well above the league's 1.9.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 67% / draw 16% / loss 17%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 03:00 PM at Jenks Sports Complex .

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Tulsa SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Dallas Texans Academy – Tulsa SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 11 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Win
3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Draw
2.75 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Loss
2.63 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

100% finish 1st
100% top 4
0% below the top 4
1.0 average finish
  1. 1st 100%
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th
  18. 18th
  19. 19th
  20. 20th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

25 chains · 15 teams

Paths of results that link Dallas Texans Academy to Tulsa SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

22 favour us
1 even
2 favour them
+4.2 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
7–0 1–1 1–0 3–2 0–2 7–0 1–5 1–3 3–0 0–1 2–2 0–0 0–5 7–1 2–2 1–5 0–3 7–2 0–4 0–1 2–1 2–2 6–3 1–0 2–3 Dallas Texans Acade… 1st DKSC 12th FC Dallas Youth Red 6th Dallas Texans 16th RISE SC 18th Albion Hurricanes FC 10th Solar SC Academy 5th Lonestar ATX Royal 11th Sting 8th Real Colorado Acade… 13th San Antonio City SC 19th SAFC 9th OK Energy FC Academy 14th FC Westlake 15th Tulsa SC 3rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

14 game days

1st 10th 20th Sep 5 Sep 13 Sep 26 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.16 · 16th hardest of 20

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
03:00 PM
Tulsa SC
3rd · 7-3-1 · GD +18
Away far trip
Jenks Sports Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
67%
2–1 2.17 2.90 Swing game
Sun Oct 25
01:00 PM
OK Energy FC Academy
14th · 2-4-6 · GD -20
Away far trip
North Oklahoma City FC
●○○○○ Favorable
98%
6–0 2.95 2.90 Bank it
Sat Oct 31
12:00 PM
Lonestar ATX Royal
11th · 3-2-4 · GD +0
Home
Beacon Park
●○○○○ Favorable
91%
4–0 2.79 2.89 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
11:00 AM
Lonestar ATX Red
2nd · 7-1-1 · GD +13
Home
Beacon Park
●○○○○ Favorable
76%
2–1 2.42 2.85 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
12:00 PM
FC Westlake
15th · 1-3-4 · GD -2
Home
Centennial HS
●○○○○ Favorable
92%
4–0 2.80 2.84 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
11:00 AM
HTX
4th · 4-3-1 · GD +5
Home
Centennial HS
●○○○○ Favorable
90%
4–1 2.76 2.84 Bank it
Sat Nov 14
11:15 AM
Real Colorado Academy
13th · 2-2-4 · GD -2
Away far trip
Real Colorado Soccer Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
90%
4–1 2.76 2.83 Bank it
Sun Nov 15
11:15 AM
Colorado Storm
20th · 0-1-5 · GD -16
Away far trip
Regis University · turf
●○○○○ Favorable
98%
5–0 2.96 2.84 Bank it
Sat Apr 17
12:00 PM
SAFC
9th · 2-3-1 · GD +3
Home
Centennial HS
●○○○○ Favorable
89%
4–0 2.75 2.83 Bank it
Sun Apr 18
11:00 AM
San Antonio City SC
19th · 0-2-4 · GD -16
Home
Centennial HS
●○○○○ Favorable
99%
6–0 2.98 2.84 Bank it
Sun May 2
01:00 PM
Sting
8th · 5-2-3 · GD +8
Away
Sting National Training Center
●○○○○ Favorable
77%
3–1 2.44 2.82 Bank it
Sun May 9
TBD
SOLAR SC
7th · 4-0-3 · GD +1
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
90%
4–1 2.77 2.82 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Dallas Texans Academy 7700 404+36 213.00 WWWWW -0.29 -0.16 100% 1.0
2 Lonestar ATX Red 9711 218+13 222.44 DWWLW -0.18 +0.05 88% 3.0
3 Tulsa SC 11731 2911+18 242.18 WWWDW -0.30 +0.19 86% 3.2
4 HTX 8431 1914+5 151.88 WDLWW +0.01 -0.04 19% 6.2
5 Solar SC Academy 7412 2010+10 131.86 LWWWL +0.08 -0.14 48% 4.8
6 FC Dallas Youth Red 8422 1710+7 141.75 WWWLW +0.16 -0.22 41% 5.1
7 SOLAR SC 7403 1413+1 121.71 WWWLL -0.56 +0.33 1% 10.7
8 Sting 10523 2113+8 171.70 WDWWW -0.05 -0.05 13% 6.5
9 SAFC 6231 129+3 91.50 DDLWW -0.39 +0.12 4% 8.6
10 Albion Hurricanes FC 7232 1621-5 91.29 DWDLW +0.37 -0.18 0% 11.4
11 Lonestar ATX Royal 9324 1313+0 111.22 WLLLL -0.05 +0.05 0% 11.5
12 DKSC 10334 1922-3 121.20 LWWWL +0.47 -0.55 0% 9.9
13 Real Colorado Academy 8224 1416-2 81.00 DLLDW +0.02 -0.03 0% 12.1
14 OK Energy FC Academy 12246 1636-20 100.83 LWLDL -0.01 +0.11 0% 16.5
15 FC Westlake 8134 1012-2 60.75 DLLLW +0.01 +0.02 0% 13.5
16 Dallas Texans 7124 922-13 50.71 LLLWL +0.33 -0.12 0% 16.0
17 FC Dallas Youth White 7124 923-14 50.71 DLWLL +0.62 -0.32 0% 14.6
18 RISE SC 7115 414-10 40.57 LLDLL +0.16 -0.01 0% 17.0
19 San Antonio City SC 6024 117-16 20.33 DDLLL -0.09 +0.16 0% 19.2
20 Colorado Storm 6015 218-16 10.17 LLLDL +0.24 -0.01 0% 19.2

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.88 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.