VSA Rush
ECNL Boys · Heartland BU14 · 12 teams · VSA Rush (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 31, 05:00 PM
VSA Timberline Soccer Complex, Field 1 ↗
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.0 for, 1.9 against · 1.45 expected points)
| Season so far | VSA Rush | Kansas Rush |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 9th | 10th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-0-6 | 1-2-3 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 0.83 |
| Goals for / game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Goals against / game | 3.2 | 3.2 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | L W L W L | L D W D L |
| Biggest win | 3–1 at Kansas City Athletics | 3–0 at Kansas City Athletics |
| Worst loss | 1–8 vs Arkansas Comets FC | 1–7 at Arkansas Comets FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.55 | -1.37 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.05 | -0.67 |
Common opponents: Gretna Elite Academy — we 2–3; they 0–4. Sporting Nebraska FC — we 1–0; they 2–2. OK Energy FC — we 1–0; they 0–5. Arkansas Comets FC — we 1–8; they 1–7. Kansas City Athletics — we 3–1; they 3–0. Union KC Soccer Club — we 1–4; they 1–1.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–5 at Sporting Iowa Central, 0–1 at Missouri Rush.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 41%; a draw (21%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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What a win does
OK Energy FC sit 8th on 1.11 PPG; we are on 1.00.A point moves us above OK Energy FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Kansas Rush game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (VSA Rush – Kansas Rush) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.20 PPG |
7th▲ up 2 | 7th▲ up 2 | 9th— holds |
| Win 1.20 PPG |
7th▲ up 2 | 7th▲ up 2 | 9th— holds |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
9th— holds | 9th— holds | 10th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.90 PPG |
10th▼ down 1 | 10th▼ down 1 | 10th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 7th if every rival drops points, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th <1%
- 8th 13%
- 9th 46%
- 10th 40%
- 11th 1%
- 12th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.18 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Louis Stars SC | 2.67 (+1.67) | 1st (2.48) | 50 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 46 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Union KC Soccer Club | 2.29 (+1.29) | 4th (1.89) | 42 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection |
| 3 | Sporting Iowa Central | 2.22 (+1.22) | 3rd (2.12) | 40 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection |
| 4 | FC Wichita | 2.00 (+1.00) | 2nd (2.31) | 35 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 42 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 5 | Arkansas Comets FC | 2.00 (+1.00) | 6th (1.82) | 35 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection |
| 6 | Gretna Elite Academy | 1.88 (+0.88) | 5th (1.82) | 33 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection |
| 7 | Missouri Rush | 1.17 (+0.17) | 7th (1.51) | A point next game |
| 8 | OK Energy FC | 1.11 (+0.11) | 8th (1.09) | A point next game |
How the results connect
36 chains · 10 teams
Paths of results that link VSA Rush to Kansas Rush through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
14 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.21 · 4th hardest of 12
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 31 05:00 PM |
Kansas Rush 10th · 1-2-3 · GD -12 |
Home VSA Timberline Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
2–1 | 1.45 | 1.04 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 11:00 AM |
FC Wichita 4th · 5-1-2 · GD +28 |
Home VSA Timberline Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
0–5 | 0.10 | 0.96 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
Gretna Elite Academy 6th · 5-0-3 · GD +4 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
0–3 | 0.38 | 0.91 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 TBD |
Sporting Nebraska FC 11th · 0-1-7 · GD -30 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
2–1 | 1.76 | 0.98 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
Arkansas Comets FC 5th · 6-0-3 · GD +14 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 5% |
1–4 | 0.24 | 0.92 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 09:00 AM |
OK Energy FC 8th · 3-1-5 · GD -5 |
Away far trip
Edmond Soccer Club |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–2 | 0.81 | 0.92 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 11:00 AM |
Missouri Rush 7th · 2-1-3 · GD +3 |
Home VSA Timberline Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
0–2 | 0.62 | 0.90 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 11:00 AM |
St. Louis Stars SC 1st · 5-1-0 · GD +21 |
Home VSA Timberline Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
0–4 | 0.12 | 0.85 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
FC Wichita 4th · 5-1-2 · GD +28 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
0–5 | 0.05 | 0.81 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
Kansas Rush 10th · 1-2-3 · GD -12 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–2 | 1.16 | 0.82 | Upside |
| Sat May 8 11:00 AM |
Sporting Iowa Central 3rd · 6-2-1 · GD +18 |
Home VSA Timberline Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
0–3 | 0.26 | 0.80 | Upside |
| Sat May 15 05:00 PM |
Union KC Soccer Club 2nd · 5-1-1 · GD +10 |
Home VSA Timberline Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 10% |
1–3 | 0.40 | 0.78 | Upside |
| Sun May 16 11:00 AM |
Kansas City Athletics 12th · 0-0-7 · GD -32 |
Home VSA Timberline Soccer Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 71% |
2–1 | 2.29 | 0.85 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | St. Louis Stars SC | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 4 | +21 | 16 | 2.67 | WWWDW | +0.16 | -0.34 | 100% | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Union KC Soccer Club · Sun Oct 25 vs Kansas City Athletics · Sat Oct 31 at Arkansas Comets FC See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Union KC Soccer Club | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 13 | +10 | 16 | 2.29 | WWWWW | -0.24 | -0.01 | 49% | 4.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at St. Louis Stars SC · Sun Oct 25 at Missouri Rush · Sat Oct 31 vs Gretna Elite Academy See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Sporting Iowa Central | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 7 | +18 | 20 | 2.22 | DWDLW | -0.25 | -0.02 | 90% | 3.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs FC Wichita · Sun Nov 1 vs Kansas Rush · Sat Apr 3 at Sporting Nebraska FC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | FC Wichita | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 36 | 8 | +28 | 16 | 2.00 | WLDWW | -0.13 | -0.29 | 99% | 2.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Sporting Iowa Central · Sun Nov 1 at VSA Rush · Sun Nov 8 vs Kansas Rush See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Arkansas Comets FC | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 29 | 15 | +14 | 18 | 2.00 | WLWLW | -0.42 | +0.13 | 31% | 5.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs St. Louis Stars SC · Sun Nov 1 vs Missouri Rush · Sat Mar 13 at St. Louis Stars SC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Gretna Elite Academy | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 15 | 1.88 | WWLLW | +0.55 | -0.37 | 28% | 5.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Union KC Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 at Kansas City Athletics · Sun Nov 8 at Sporting Nebraska FC See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Missouri Rush | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 7 | 1.17 | LWLWD | +0.46 | -0.22 | 3% | 6.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Kansas City Athletics · Sun Oct 25 vs Union KC Soccer Club · Sat Oct 31 at OK Energy FC See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | OK Energy FC | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 10 | 1.11 | LWLLD | -0.26 | +0.24 | 0% | 8.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Missouri Rush · Sun Nov 1 vs St. Louis Stars SC · Sat Mar 13 at Missouri Rush See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | VSA Rush | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 29 | -19 | 9 | 1.00 | LWLWL | +0.05 | +0.21 | 0% | 9.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Kansas Rush · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Wichita · Sat Apr 3 at Gretna Elite Academy See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Kansas Rush | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 19 | -12 | 5 | 0.83 | LDWDL | -0.67 | +0.40 | 0% | 9.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at VSA Rush · Sun Nov 1 at Sporting Iowa Central · Sun Nov 8 at FC Wichita See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Sporting Nebraska FC | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 35 | -30 | 1 | 0.13 | LLLDL | +0.55 | +0.06 | 0% | 11.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Kansas City Athletics · Sun Nov 1 at Union KC Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 vs Gretna Elite Academy See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Kansas City Athletics | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 34 | -32 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.32 | +0.24 | 0% | 11.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Missouri Rush · Sun Oct 25 at St. Louis Stars SC · Sat Oct 31 vs Sporting Nebraska FC See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.11 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.