TableChase Clubs

Missouri Rush

ECNL Boys · Heartland BU14 · 12 teams · Missouri Rush (all teams)

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7th
2-1-3 record · 6 played
1.17 points per game
+3 goal diff · 9–6
LWLWDlast 5
3% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.6
+0.46 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:45 PM

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Missouri Rush
7th · 1.17 PPG
vs
Kansas City Athletics
12th · 0.00 PPG

Missouri Rush Sports Park, Field 3 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.4 for, 0.5 against · 2.77 expected points)

Season so farMissouri RushKansas City Athletics
Position7th12th
Record (W-D-L)2-1-30-0-7
Points per game1.170.00
Goals for / game1.50.3
Goals against / game1.04.9
Clean sheets20
Held scoreless35
Form (recent first)D W L W LL L L L L
Biggest win7–0 vs Sporting Nebraska FC—
Worst loss0–3 vs Sporting Iowa Central0–12 vs FC Wichita
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.37-3.02
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.46+0.32

Common opponents: Sporting Iowa Central — we 0–3; they 0–5. VSA Rush — we 1–0; they 1–3. FC Wichita — we 1–1; they 0–12.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Kansas City Athletics average 0.3 goals/game (league avg 2.1); blanked in 5 of 7.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Kansas City Athletics concede 4.9/game; worst result 0–12 vs FC Wichita.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–1 vs St. Louis Stars SC, 0–1 vs Gretna Elite Academy, 0–3 vs Sporting Iowa Central.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 90% chance; likely score 3–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Kansas City Athletics have lost 7 straight (form: LLLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Kansas City Athletics game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Missouri Rush – Kansas City Athletics) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.43 PPG		 7th— holds 7th— holds 7th— holds
Win
1.43 PPG		 7th— holds 7th— holds 7th— holds
Draw
1.14 PPG		 7th— holds 7th— holds 7th— holds
Loss
1.00 PPG		 8th▼ down 1 8th▼ down 1 8th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–0 win we stay 7th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
3% top 4
97% below the top 4
6.6 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd 1%
  4. 4th 3%
  5. 5th 8%
  6. 6th 17%
  7. 7th 65%
  8. 8th 6%
  9. 9th 1%
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 St. Louis Stars SC 2.67 (+1.50) 1st (2.48) 52 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 48 for their projection
2 Union KC Soccer Club 2.29 (+1.12) 4th (1.89) 44 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
3 Sporting Iowa Central 2.22 (+1.05) 3rd (2.12) 42 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection
4 FC Wichita 2.00 (+0.83) 2nd (2.31) 37 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection
5 Arkansas Comets FC 2.00 (+0.83) 6th (1.82) 37 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
6 Gretna Elite Academy 1.88 (+0.71) 5th (1.82) 35 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection

How the results connect

29 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Missouri Rush to Kansas City Athletics through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

26 favour us
1 even
2 favour them
+5.3 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–3 5–0 1–0 3–1 1–1 12–0 2–4 6–1 0–5 0–0 2–0 2–3 3–0 0–1 3–2 0–2 1–8 1–4 3–1 Missouri Rush 7th Sporting Iowa Centr… 3rd VSA Rush 9th FC Wichita 4th Gretna Elite Academy 6th Union KC Soccer Club 2nd OK Energy FC 8th Arkansas Comets FC 5th Kansas City Athleti… 12th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

14 game days

1st 6th 12th Aug 29 Sep 19 Sep 27 Oct 6 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.22 · 9th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
01:45 PM		 Kansas City Athletics
12th · 0-0-7 · GD -32		 Home
Missouri Rush Sports Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
90%		 3–0 2.77 1.40 Bank it
Sun Oct 25
10:45 AM		 Union KC Soccer Club
2nd · 5-1-1 · GD +10		 Home
Missouri Rush Sports Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
39%		 1–1 1.40 1.40 Upside
Sat Oct 31
11:00 AM		 OK Energy FC
8th · 3-1-5 · GD -5		 Away far trip
Edmond Soccer Club		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
49%		 1–1 1.72 1.43 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
11:00 AM		 Arkansas Comets FC
5th · 6-0-3 · GD +14		 Away far trip
NOKC Soccer Fields		 ●●●●○ Tough
29%		 1–1 1.08 1.40 Upside
Sat Dec 5
TBD		 Sporting Nebraska FC
11th · 0-1-7 · GD -30		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
80%		 2–0 2.52 1.50 Bank it
Sun Dec 6
11:00 AM		 Gretna Elite Academy
6th · 5-0-3 · GD +4		 Away far trip
Pinnacle Bank Soccer Complex ( Gretna Soccer Compl		 ●●●●○ Tough
31%		 1–1 1.21 1.47 Upside
Sat Feb 20
TBD		 Kansas Rush
10th · 1-2-3 · GD -12		 Home
Missouri Rush Sports Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
72%		 2–0 2.33 1.54 Bank it
Sat Mar 13
TBD		 OK Energy FC
8th · 3-1-5 · GD -5		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
57%		 1–0 1.95 1.57 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
TBD		 Arkansas Comets FC
5th · 6-0-3 · GD +14		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
37%		 1–1 1.34 1.55 Upside
Sat Apr 3
TBD		 Kansas Rush
10th · 1-2-3 · GD -12		 Away
●●○○○ Lean win
64%		 2–1 2.12 1.59 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
TBD		 FC Wichita
4th · 5-1-2 · GD +28		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
12%		 1–2 0.51 1.53 Upside
Sat Apr 17
11:00 AM		 VSA Rush
9th · 3-0-6 · GD -19		 Away far trip
VSA Timberline Soccer Complex		 ●●○○○ Lean win
67%		 2–0 2.19 1.56 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 Sporting Iowa Central
3rd · 6-2-1 · GD +18		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
19%		 0–1 0.80 1.52 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD		 Union KC Soccer Club
2nd · 5-1-1 · GD +10		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
30%		 1–1 1.13 1.50 Upside
Sun May 2
TBD		 Kansas City Athletics
12th · 0-0-7 · GD -32		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
85%		 2–0 2.66 1.56 Bank it
Sat May 8
09:00 AM		 St. Louis Stars SC
1st · 5-1-0 · GD +21		 Away
Sport 360 Soccer Zone		 ●●●●● Very tough
12%		 0–2 0.55 1.51 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 St. Louis Stars SC 6510 254+21 162.67 WWWDW +0.16 -0.34 100% 1.4
2 Union KC Soccer Club 7511 2313+10 162.29 WWWWW -0.24 -0.01 49% 4.6
3 Sporting Iowa Central 9621 257+18 202.22 DWDLW -0.25 -0.02 90% 3.2
4 FC Wichita 8512 368+28 162.00 WLDWW -0.13 -0.29 99% 2.0
5 Arkansas Comets FC 9603 2915+14 182.00 WLWLW -0.42 +0.13 31% 5.1
6 Gretna Elite Academy 8503 1511+4 151.88 WWLLW +0.55 -0.37 28% 5.2
7 Missouri Rush 6213 96+3 71.17 LWLWD +0.46 -0.22 3% 6.6
8 OK Energy FC 9315 1217-5 101.11 LWLLD -0.26 +0.24 0% 8.2
9 VSA Rush 9306 1029-19 91.00 LWLWL +0.05 +0.21 0% 9.3
10 Kansas Rush 6123 719-12 50.83 LDWDL -0.67 +0.40 0% 9.5
11 Sporting Nebraska FC 8017 535-30 10.13 LLLDL +0.55 +0.06 0% 11.2
12 Kansas City Athletics 7007 234-32 00.00 LLLLL +0.32 +0.24 0% 11.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.11 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.