Boise Timbers

ECNL Boys · Far West BU14 · 7 teams · Boise Timbers | Thorns (all teams)

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7th

0-0-7 record · 7 played

0.00 points per game

-25 goal diff · 4–29

LLLLLlast 5

0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.0

+0.46 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 11:00 AM

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Boise Timbers
7th · 0.00 PPG

Oregon Premier FC
1st · 2.50 PPG

Boise Timbers|Thorns - Soccer Complex, Field 4 ↗

2% 94%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–4 (expected goals 0.7 for, 4.6 against · 0.09 expected points)

Season so far	Boise Timbers	Oregon Premier FC
Position	7th	1st
Record (W-D-L)	0-0-7	3-1-0
Points per game	0.00	2.50
Goals for / game	0.6	3.5
Goals against / game	4.1	0.5
Clean sheets	0	2
Held scoreless	4	0
Form (recent first)	L L L L L	W D W W
Biggest win	—	7–0 vs Boise Timbers
Worst loss	0–7 at Oregon Premier FC	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-2.37	+1.59
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.46	-0.22

Already played this season: Sat Oct 17 0–7 at Oregon Premier FC (L)

Common opponents: FC Portland — we 0–3; they 1–1. Idaho Rush — we 0–3; they 3–0. Capital FC — we 0–6; they 3–1.

Game plan

Respect their attack
Oregon Premier FC score 3.5/game — well above the league's 2.0.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Hard to break down
Oregon Premier FC concede only 0.5/game with 2 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–3 vs FC Portland, 0–3 at Idaho Rush, 0–6 vs Capital FC, 0–7 at Oregon Premier FC.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 2%; a draw (4%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Oregon Premier FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Boise Timbers – Oregon Premier FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 0.00 PPG	7th— holds	7th— holds	7th— holds
Win 0.38 PPG	7th— holds	7th— holds	7th— holds
Draw 0.13 PPG	7th— holds	7th— holds	7th— holds
Loss 0.00 PPG	7th— holds	7th— holds	7th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–4 loss we stay 7th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

0% top 4

100% below the top 4

7.0 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th <1%
6th 1%
7th 99%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.13 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Oregon Premier FC	2.50 (+2.50)	1st (2.25)	60 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 55 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Capital FC	2.40 (+2.40)	2nd (2.02)	58 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 49 for their projection
3	United PDX	2.14 (+2.14)	4th (1.70)	52 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection
4	FC Portland	2.13 (+2.13)	3rd (1.98)	52 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 48 for their projection
5	Idaho Rush	0.88 (+0.88)	5th (1.07)	22 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
6	Eugene Metro FC	0.60 (+0.60)	6th (0.80)	15 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection

How the results connect

24 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Boise Timbers to Oregon Premier FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us

1 even

23 favour them

-4.7 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.43 · 1st hardest of 7

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 17 TBD no score posted	Idaho Rush 5th · 2-1-5 · GD -4	Home	●●●●● Very tough	14%	1–2	0.58	0.07	Upside
Sat Oct 31 11:00 AM	Oregon Premier FC 1st · 3-1-0 · GD +12	Home Boise Timbers\|Thorns - Soccer Complex	●●●●● Very tough	2%	0–4	0.09	0.07	Upside
Fri Nov 6 06:00 PM	Capital FC 2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +9	Away far trip CFC Pioneer Sportspark	●●●●● Very tough	2%	0–4	0.09	0.08	Upside
Sat Nov 7 03:00 PM	FC Portland 4th · 5-2-1 · GD +12	Away far trip Liberty High School	●●●●● Very tough	2%	0–3	0.12	0.08	Upside
Sun Nov 8 12:00 PM	Eugene Metro FC 6th · 1-0-4 · GD -9	Away far trip Civic Park	●●●●● Very tough	11%	1–3	0.45	0.11	Upside
Sat Jan 30 TBD	Oregon Premier FC 1st · 3-1-0 · GD +12	Away	●●●●● Very tough	1%	0–5	0.05	0.11	Upside
Sun Jan 31 TBD	Capital FC 2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +9	Away	●●●●● Very tough	2%	0–4	0.09	0.10	Upside
Sat Feb 13 TBD	United PDX 3rd · 5-0-2 · GD +5	Away	●●●●● Very tough	4%	0–3	0.22	0.11	Upside
Sun Feb 14 05:00 PM	FC Portland 4th · 5-2-1 · GD +12	Away far trip Liberty High School · turf?	●●●●● Very tough	2%	0–3	0.12	0.11	Upside
Sat Feb 27 TBD	FC Portland 4th · 5-2-1 · GD +12	Home	●●●●● Very tough	4%	0–3	0.19	0.12	Upside
Sun Feb 28 TBD	United PDX 3rd · 5-0-2 · GD +5	Home	●●●●● Very tough	7%	0–3	0.33	0.13	Upside
Sat Mar 6 TBD	Capital FC 2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +9	Home	●●●●● Very tough	3%	0–4	0.16	0.13	Upside
Sun Mar 7 TBD	Eugene Metro FC 6th · 1-0-4 · GD -9	Home	●●●●● Very tough	18%	1–3	0.67	0.16	Upside
Sat Mar 27 TBD	Idaho Rush 5th · 2-1-5 · GD -4	Home	●●●●● Very tough	14%	1–2	0.58	0.18	Upside
Sun Apr 4 TBD	Eugene Metro FC 6th · 1-0-4 · GD -9	Away	●●●●● Very tough	11%	1–3	0.45	0.19	Upside
Sat Apr 17 TBD	Idaho Rush 5th · 2-1-5 · GD -4	Away	●●●●● Very tough	9%	0–2	0.41	0.20	Upside
Sat Apr 24 TBD	Oregon Premier FC 1st · 3-1-0 · GD +12	Home	●●●●● Very tough	2%	0–4	0.09	0.20	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Oregon Premier FC

+12

2.50

WWDW

-0.22

-0.24

100%

1.5

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Boise Timbers (7th)	7–0
D	Sun Oct 4	vs	FC Portland (4th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Capital FC (2nd)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Idaho Rush (5th)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Eugene Metro FC · Sun Oct 25 at Capital FC · Wed Oct 28 at FC Portland See all 20 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Eugene Metro FC (6th)	4–1	90%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Capital FC (2nd)	1–1	45%
·	Wed Oct 28	at	FC Portland (4th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Boise Timbers (7th)	4–0	94%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Idaho Rush (5th)	2–1	70%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	United PDX (3rd)	2–1	64%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Eugene Metro FC (6th)	4–1	85%
·	Sat Jan 16	at	United PDX (3rd)	1–1	55%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	Boise Timbers (7th)	5–0	97%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	Idaho Rush (5th)	2–0	78%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Capital FC (2nd)	1–1	45%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	Eugene Metro FC (6th)	4–1	85%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Capital FC (2nd)	2–1	55%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Eugene Metro FC (6th)	4–1	90%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	United PDX (3rd)	2–1	64%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	FC Portland (4th)	1–1	49%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	FC Portland (4th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	United PDX (3rd)	1–1	55%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Boise Timbers (7th)	4–0	94%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Idaho Rush (5th)	2–1	70%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Capital FC

2.40

LWWWW

-0.39

-0.08

100%

2.4

W	Sun Oct 11	at	Boise Timbers (7th)	6–0
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Idaho Rush (5th)	3–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	United PDX (3rd)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Eugene Metro FC (6th)	3–2
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs United PDX · Sun Oct 25 vs Oregon Premier FC · Sun Nov 1 at FC Portland See all 19 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	United PDX (3rd)	2–1	54%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	1–1	33%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	FC Portland (4th)	1–1	31%
·	Fri Nov 6	vs	Boise Timbers (7th)	4–0	94%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Idaho Rush (5th)	2–1	70%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	FC Portland (4th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Eugene Metro FC (6th)	4–1	85%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	Idaho Rush (5th)	2–1	70%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	Boise Timbers (7th)	4–0	94%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	1–1	33%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	United PDX (3rd)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Feb 13	at	Eugene Metro FC (6th)	3–1	77%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	1–2	25%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Boise Timbers (7th)	4–0	91%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Idaho Rush (5th)	2–1	61%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	United PDX (3rd)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Eugene Metro FC (6th)	4–1	85%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	FC Portland (4th)	1–1	31%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	FC Portland (4th)	1–1	39%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

United PDX

2.14

WWLWW

-0.36

+0.10

98%

3.7

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Boise Timbers (7th)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	FC Portland (4th)	1–0
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Capital FC (2nd)	0–2
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Boise Timbers (7th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Idaho Rush (5th)	5–2
L	Sun Sep 20	at	FC Portland (4th)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Idaho Rush (5th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Capital FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Eugene Metro FC · Sun Nov 8 at Oregon Premier FC See all 17 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Capital FC (2nd)	1–2	24%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Eugene Metro FC (6th)	3–1	72%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Eugene Metro FC (6th)	2–1	62%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	1–1	23%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	FC Portland (4th)	0–1	22%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Capital FC (2nd)	1–1	32%
·	Sat Feb 13	vs	Boise Timbers (7th)	3–0	87%
·	Sun Feb 14	vs	Idaho Rush (5th)	1–1	56%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Eugene Metro FC (6th)	2–1	62%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Idaho Rush (5th)	1–1	47%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	Boise Timbers (7th)	3–0	81%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	FC Portland (4th)	1–1	29%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Capital FC (2nd)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	1–1	23%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Eugene Metro FC (6th)	3–1	72%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Portland

+12

2.13

DWDLW

-0.36

-0.01

100%

2.5

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Eugene Metro FC (6th)	4–1
L	Sat Oct 10	at	United PDX (3rd)	0–1
D	Sun Oct 4	at	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	1–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Eugene Metro FC (6th)	6–1
D	Sun Sep 27	at	Idaho Rush (5th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Boise Timbers (7th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	United PDX (3rd)	2–1
W	Fri Sep 11	vs	Idaho Rush (5th)	1–0

Next: Wed Oct 28 vs Oregon Premier FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Capital FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Boise Timbers See all 16 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Wed Oct 28	vs	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	1–1	35%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Capital FC (2nd)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Boise Timbers (7th)	3–0	92%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Capital FC (2nd)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	United PDX (3rd)	1–0	54%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Eugene Metro FC (6th)	3–1	83%
·	Sat Feb 13	vs	Idaho Rush (5th)	2–0	68%
·	Sun Feb 14	vs	Boise Timbers (7th)	3–0	92%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Boise Timbers (7th)	3–0	88%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	Idaho Rush (5th)	1–0	60%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	United PDX (3rd)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	1–1	27%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	1–1	35%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Capital FC (2nd)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Eugene Metro FC (6th)	3–1	75%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Capital FC (2nd)	1–1	37%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Idaho Rush

-4

0.88

WLDWL

+0.22

+0.02

5.1

L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Capital FC (2nd)	1–3
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Boise Timbers (7th)	3–0
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	FC Portland (4th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	United PDX (3rd)	2–5
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Eugene Metro FC (6th)	4–1
L	Sun Sep 13	at	United PDX (3rd)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	0–3
L	Fri Sep 11	at	FC Portland (4th)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 17 at Boise Timbers · Sun Nov 1 vs Oregon Premier FC · Sat Nov 7 at Eugene Metro FC See all 16 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	at	Boise Timbers (7th)	2–1	70%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	1–2	13%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Eugene Metro FC (6th)	2–2	45%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Capital FC (2nd)	1–2	14%
·	Fri Jan 29	at	Eugene Metro FC (6th)	2–2	45%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	Capital FC (2nd)	1–2	14%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	0–2	9%
·	Sat Feb 13	at	FC Portland (4th)	0–2	13%
·	Sun Feb 14	at	United PDX (3rd)	1–1	22%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	United PDX (3rd)	1–1	29%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	FC Portland (4th)	0–1	18%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Eugene Metro FC (6th)	2–1	56%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Capital FC (2nd)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Mar 27	at	Boise Timbers (7th)	2–1	70%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Boise Timbers (7th)	2–0	77%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	1–2	13%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Eugene Metro FC

-9

0.60

WLLLL

+0.12

+0.26

5.8

L	Sun Oct 18	at	FC Portland (4th)	1–4
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC Portland (4th)	1–6
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Capital FC (2nd)	2–3
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Idaho Rush (5th)	1–4
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Boise Timbers (7th)	5–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Oregon Premier FC · Sun Nov 1 at United PDX · Sat Nov 7 vs Idaho Rush See all 19 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	1–4	4%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	United PDX (3rd)	1–3	14%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Idaho Rush (5th)	2–2	36%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Boise Timbers (7th)	3–1	77%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	United PDX (3rd)	1–2	21%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	1–4	7%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Capital FC (2nd)	1–4	7%
·	Fri Jan 29	vs	Idaho Rush (5th)	2–2	36%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	FC Portland (4th)	1–3	7%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	1–4	7%
·	Sat Feb 13	vs	Capital FC (2nd)	1–3	12%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	United PDX (3rd)	1–2	21%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	1–4	4%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Idaho Rush (5th)	1–2	26%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Boise Timbers (7th)	3–1	68%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Capital FC (2nd)	1–4	7%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Boise Timbers (7th)	3–1	77%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	FC Portland (4th)	1–3	12%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	United PDX (3rd)	1–3	14%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Boise Timbers

-25

0.00

LLLLL

+0.46

+0.43

7.0

L	Sun Oct 18	at	United PDX (3rd)	1–2
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	0–7
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Capital FC (2nd)	0–6
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Idaho Rush (5th)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	United PDX (3rd)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Portland (4th)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Eugene Metro FC (6th)	2–5

Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Idaho Rush · Sat Oct 31 vs Oregon Premier FC · Fri Nov 6 at Capital FC See all 17 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	vs	Idaho Rush (5th)	1–2	14%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	0–4	2%
·	Fri Nov 6	at	Capital FC (2nd)	0–4	2%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC Portland (4th)	0–3	2%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Eugene Metro FC (6th)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	0–5	1%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	Capital FC (2nd)	0–4	2%
·	Sat Feb 13	at	United PDX (3rd)	0–3	4%
·	Sun Feb 14	at	FC Portland (4th)	0–3	2%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	FC Portland (4th)	0–3	4%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	United PDX (3rd)	0–3	7%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Capital FC (2nd)	0–4	3%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Eugene Metro FC (6th)	1–3	18%
·	Sat Mar 27	vs	Idaho Rush (5th)	1–2	14%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Eugene Metro FC (6th)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Idaho Rush (5th)	0–2	9%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	0–4	2%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.98 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.