United PDX
ECNL Boys · Far West BU14 · 7 teams · United PDX (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM
CFC Pioneer Sportspark, Ed Davison 2 ↗ far trip
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.3 for, 2.1 against · 0.94 expected points)
| Season so far | United PDX | Capital FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-0-2 | 4-0-1 |
| Points per game | 2.14 | 2.40 |
| Goals for / game | 1.9 | 3.0 |
| Goals against / game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W W L W W | W W W W L |
| Biggest win | 5–2 at Idaho Rush | 6–0 at Boise Timbers |
| Worst loss | 0–2 vs Capital FC | 1–3 at Oregon Premier FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.38 | +1.07 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.36 | -0.39 |
Already played this season: Sat Oct 3 0–2 vs Capital FC (L)
Common opponents: Idaho Rush — we 1–0, 5–2; they 3–1. Boise Timbers — we 3–1, 2–1; they 6–0.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
Capital FC score 3.0/game — well above the league's 2.0.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 vs Capital FC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 24%; a draw (21%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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They arrive in form
Capital FC have won 4 straight.Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
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Away game
Kickoff 09:00 AM at CFC Pioneer Sportspark.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Capital FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (United PDX – Capital FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 1.88 PPG |
4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 |
| Win 2.25 PPG |
2nd▲ up 1 | 2nd▲ up 1 | 2nd▲ up 1 |
| Draw 2.00 PPG |
4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.88 PPG |
4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 1%
- 2nd 7%
- 3rd 19%
- 4th 71%
- 5th 2%
- 6th
- 7th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.75 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oregon Premier FC | 2.50 (+0.36) | 1st (2.25) | 45 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection |
| 2 | Capital FC | 2.40 (+0.26) | 2nd (2.02) | 43 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection |
How the results connect
29 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link United PDX to Capital FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
13 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.10 · 3rd hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 09:00 AM |
Capital FC 2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +9 |
Away far trip
CFC Pioneer Sportspark |
●●●●● Very tough | 24% |
1–2 | 0.94 | 1.99 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 11:30 AM |
Eugene Metro FC 6th · 1-0-4 · GD -9 |
Home University of Oregon Portland - NE Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
3–1 | 2.29 | 2.03 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 8 12:00 PM |
Oregon Premier FC 1st · 3-1-0 · GD +12 |
Away far trip
Lake Oswego High School |
●●●●● Very tough | 17% |
1–2 | 0.70 | 1.89 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 12:00 PM |
Eugene Metro FC 6th · 1-0-4 · GD -9 |
Away far trip
Lane Community College |
●●○○○ Lean win | 62% |
2–1 | 2.03 | 1.91 | Swing game |
| Sat Jan 16 01:30 PM |
Oregon Premier FC 1st · 3-1-0 · GD +12 |
Home University of Oregon Portland - NE Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–1 | 0.92 | 1.82 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 30 05:00 PM |
FC Portland 4th · 5-2-1 · GD +12 |
Away far trip
Liberty High School · turf? |
●●●●● Very tough | 22% |
0–1 | 0.91 | 1.75 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 7 TBD |
Capital FC 2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +9 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–1 | 1.19 | 1.71 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 13 TBD |
Boise Timbers 7th · 0-0-7 · GD -25 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 87% |
3–0 | 2.69 | 1.78 | Bank it |
| Sun Feb 14 TBD |
Idaho Rush 5th · 2-1-5 · GD -4 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
1–1 | 1.91 | 1.79 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 20 10:00 AM |
Eugene Metro FC 6th · 1-0-4 · GD -9 |
Away far trip
Lane Community College |
●●○○○ Lean win | 62% |
2–1 | 2.03 | 1.80 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 27 TBD |
Idaho Rush 5th · 2-1-5 · GD -4 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
1–1 | 1.66 | 1.79 | Swing game |
| Sun Feb 28 TBD |
Boise Timbers 7th · 0-0-7 · GD -25 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 81% |
3–0 | 2.55 | 1.83 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 6 TBD |
FC Portland 4th · 5-2-1 · GD +12 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 29% |
1–1 | 1.13 | 1.80 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 7 TBD |
Oregon Premier FC 1st · 3-1-0 · GD +12 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 17% |
1–2 | 0.70 | 1.74 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
Capital FC 2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +9 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 24% |
1–2 | 0.94 | 1.71 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Oregon Premier FC 1st · 3-1-0 · GD +12 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–1 | 0.92 | 1.67 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
Eugene Metro FC 6th · 1-0-4 · GD -9 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
3–1 | 2.29 | 1.70 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Oregon Premier FC | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 2 | +12 | 10 | 2.50 | WWDW | -0.22 | -0.24 | 100% | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Eugene Metro FC · Sun Oct 25 at Capital FC · Wed Oct 28 at FC Portland See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Capital FC | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 12 | 2.40 | LWWWW | -0.39 | -0.08 | 100% | 2.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs United PDX · Sun Oct 25 vs Oregon Premier FC · Sun Nov 1 at FC Portland See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | United PDX | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 15 | 2.14 | WWLWW | -0.36 | +0.10 | 98% | 3.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Capital FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Eugene Metro FC · Sun Nov 8 at Oregon Premier FC See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | FC Portland | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 6 | +12 | 17 | 2.13 | DWDLW | -0.36 | -0.01 | 100% | 2.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Wed Oct 28 vs Oregon Premier FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Capital FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Boise Timbers See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Idaho Rush | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 7 | 0.88 | WLDWL | +0.22 | +0.02 | 2% | 5.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at Boise Timbers · Sun Nov 1 vs Oregon Premier FC · Sat Nov 7 at Eugene Metro FC See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Eugene Metro FC | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 3 | 0.60 | WLLLL | +0.12 | +0.26 | 0% | 5.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Oregon Premier FC · Sun Nov 1 at United PDX · Sat Nov 7 vs Idaho Rush See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Boise Timbers | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 29 | -25 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.46 | +0.43 | 0% | 7.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Idaho Rush · Sat Oct 31 vs Oregon Premier FC · Fri Nov 6 at Capital FC See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.98 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.