Oregon Premier FC

ECNL Boys · Far West BU14 · 7 teams · Oregon Premier FC (all teams)

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1st

3-1-0 record · 4 played

2.50 points per game

+12 goal diff · 14–2

WWDWlast 4

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.4

-0.22 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:30 PM

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Oregon Premier FC
1st · 2.50 PPG

Eugene Metro FC
6th · 0.60 PPG

Lakeridge Middle School, Field 1 ↗

90%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 4–1 (expected goals 4.8 for, 1.2 against · 2.77 expected points)

Season so far	Oregon Premier FC	Eugene Metro FC
Position	1st	6th
Record (W-D-L)	3-1-0	1-0-4
Points per game	2.50	0.60
Goals for / game	3.5	2.0
Goals against / game	0.5	3.8
Clean sheets	2	0
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	W D W W	L L L L W
Biggest win	7–0 vs Boise Timbers	5–2 at Boise Timbers
Worst loss	—	1–6 vs FC Portland
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.59	-1.10
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.22	+0.12

Common opponents: Idaho Rush — we 3–0; they 1–4. Capital FC — we 3–1; they 2–3. FC Portland — we 1–1; they 1–6, 1–4. Boise Timbers — we 7–0; they 5–2.

Game plan

They leak goals — be greedy
Eugene Metro FC concede 3.8/game; worst result 1–6 vs FC Portland.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 90% chance; likely score 4–1.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Confidence is low on their side
Eugene Metro FC have lost 4 straight (form: WLLLL).
Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Eugene Metro FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Oregon Premier FC – Eugene Metro FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.60 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 2.60 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.20 PPG	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1	3rd▼ down 2
Loss 2.00 PPG	4th▼ down 3	3rd▼ down 2	4th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 4–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

68% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.4 average finish

1st 68%
2nd 21%
3rd 9%
4th 1%
5th
6th
7th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

20 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Oregon Premier FC to Eugene Metro FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

19 favour us

1 even

0 favour them

+4.8 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.24 · 7th hardest of 7

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 01:30 PM	Eugene Metro FC 6th · 1-0-4 · GD -9	Home Lakeridge Middle School	●○○○○ Favorable	90%	4–1	2.77	2.55	Bank it
Sun Oct 25 09:00 AM	Capital FC 2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +9	Away far trip CFC Pioneer Sportspark	●●●○○ Toss-up	45%	1–1	1.58	2.39	Swing game
Wed Oct 28 07:45 PM	FC Portland 4th · 5-2-1 · GD +12	Away far trip Liberty High School	●●●●○ Tough	40%	1–1	1.46	2.26	Upside
Sat Oct 31 11:00 AM	Boise Timbers 7th · 0-0-7 · GD -25	Away far trip Boise Timbers\|Thorns - Soccer Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	94%	4–0	2.87	2.33	Bank it
Sun Nov 1 11:00 AM	Idaho Rush 5th · 2-1-5 · GD -4	Away far trip Optimist Sports Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	70%	2–1	2.27	2.33	Bank it
Sun Nov 8 12:00 PM	United PDX 3rd · 5-0-2 · GD +5	Home Lake Oswego High School	●●○○○ Lean win	64%	2–1	2.11	2.31	Swing game
Sun Nov 15 04:00 PM	Eugene Metro FC 6th · 1-0-4 · GD -9	Away far trip Lane Community College	●○○○○ Favorable	85%	4–1	2.63	2.33	Bank it
Sat Jan 16 01:30 PM	United PDX 3rd · 5-0-2 · GD +5	Away far trip University of Oregon Portland - NE Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	55%	1–1	1.87	2.30	Swing game
Sat Jan 30 TBD	Boise Timbers 7th · 0-0-7 · GD -25	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	97%	5–0	2.93	2.34	Bank it
Sun Jan 31 TBD	Idaho Rush 5th · 2-1-5 · GD -4	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	78%	2–0	2.47	2.35	Bank it
Sat Feb 6 TBD	Capital FC 2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +9	Away	●●●○○ Toss-up	45%	1–1	1.58	2.30	Swing game
Sun Feb 7 TBD	Eugene Metro FC 6th · 1-0-4 · GD -9	Away	●○○○○ Favorable	85%	4–1	2.63	2.32	Bank it
Sat Feb 20 TBD	Capital FC 2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +9	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	55%	2–1	1.86	2.29	Swing game
Sat Feb 27 TBD	Eugene Metro FC 6th · 1-0-4 · GD -9	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	90%	4–1	2.77	2.32	Bank it
Sun Mar 7 TBD	United PDX 3rd · 5-0-2 · GD +5	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	64%	2–1	2.11	2.31	Swing game
Sat Mar 13 TBD	FC Portland 4th · 5-2-1 · GD +12	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	49%	1–1	1.70	2.28	Swing game
Sat Apr 3 09:00 AM	FC Portland 4th · 5-2-1 · GD +12	Away far trip Liberty High School · turf?	●●●●○ Tough	40%	1–1	1.46	2.24	Upside
Sat Apr 17 TBD	United PDX 3rd · 5-0-2 · GD +5	Away	●●●○○ Toss-up	55%	1–1	1.87	2.22	Swing game
Sat Apr 24 TBD	Boise Timbers 7th · 0-0-7 · GD -25	Away	●○○○○ Favorable	94%	4–0	2.87	2.25	Bank it
Sun Apr 25 TBD	Idaho Rush 5th · 2-1-5 · GD -4	Away	●●○○○ Lean win	70%	2–1	2.27	2.25	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Oregon Premier FC

+12

2.50

WWDW

-0.22

-0.24

100%

1.4

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Boise Timbers (7th)	7–0
D	Sun Oct 4	vs	FC Portland (4th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Capital FC (2nd)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Idaho Rush (5th)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Eugene Metro FC · Sun Oct 25 at Capital FC · Wed Oct 28 at FC Portland See all 20 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Eugene Metro FC (6th)	4–1	90%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Capital FC (2nd)	1–1	45%
·	Wed Oct 28	at	FC Portland (4th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Boise Timbers (7th)	4–0	94%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Idaho Rush (5th)	2–1	70%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	United PDX (3rd)	2–1	64%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Eugene Metro FC (6th)	4–1	85%
·	Sat Jan 16	at	United PDX (3rd)	1–1	55%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	Boise Timbers (7th)	5–0	97%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	Idaho Rush (5th)	2–0	78%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Capital FC (2nd)	1–1	45%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	Eugene Metro FC (6th)	4–1	85%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Capital FC (2nd)	2–1	55%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Eugene Metro FC (6th)	4–1	90%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	United PDX (3rd)	2–1	64%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	FC Portland (4th)	1–1	49%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	FC Portland (4th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	United PDX (3rd)	1–1	55%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Boise Timbers (7th)	4–0	94%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Idaho Rush (5th)	2–1	70%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Capital FC

2.40

LWWWW

-0.39

-0.08

100%

2.4

W	Sun Oct 11	at	Boise Timbers (7th)	6–0
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Idaho Rush (5th)	3–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	United PDX (3rd)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Eugene Metro FC (6th)	3–2
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs United PDX · Sun Oct 25 vs Oregon Premier FC · Sun Nov 1 at FC Portland See all 19 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	United PDX (3rd)	2–1	54%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	1–1	33%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	FC Portland (4th)	1–1	31%
·	Fri Nov 6	vs	Boise Timbers (7th)	4–0	94%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Idaho Rush (5th)	2–1	70%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	FC Portland (4th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Eugene Metro FC (6th)	4–1	85%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	Idaho Rush (5th)	2–1	70%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	Boise Timbers (7th)	4–0	94%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	1–1	33%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	United PDX (3rd)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Feb 13	at	Eugene Metro FC (6th)	3–1	77%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	1–2	25%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Boise Timbers (7th)	4–0	91%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Idaho Rush (5th)	2–1	61%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	United PDX (3rd)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Eugene Metro FC (6th)	4–1	85%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	FC Portland (4th)	1–1	31%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	FC Portland (4th)	1–1	39%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

United PDX

2.14

WWLWW

-0.36

+0.10

98%

3.7

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Boise Timbers (7th)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	FC Portland (4th)	1–0
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Capital FC (2nd)	0–2
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Boise Timbers (7th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Idaho Rush (5th)	5–2
L	Sun Sep 20	at	FC Portland (4th)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Idaho Rush (5th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Capital FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Eugene Metro FC · Sun Nov 8 at Oregon Premier FC See all 17 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Capital FC (2nd)	1–2	24%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Eugene Metro FC (6th)	3–1	72%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Eugene Metro FC (6th)	2–1	62%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	1–1	23%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	FC Portland (4th)	0–1	22%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Capital FC (2nd)	1–1	32%
·	Sat Feb 13	vs	Boise Timbers (7th)	3–0	87%
·	Sun Feb 14	vs	Idaho Rush (5th)	1–1	56%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Eugene Metro FC (6th)	2–1	62%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Idaho Rush (5th)	1–1	47%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	Boise Timbers (7th)	3–0	81%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	FC Portland (4th)	1–1	29%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Capital FC (2nd)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	1–1	23%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Eugene Metro FC (6th)	3–1	72%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Portland

+12

2.13

DWDLW

-0.36

-0.01

100%

2.5

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Eugene Metro FC (6th)	4–1
L	Sat Oct 10	at	United PDX (3rd)	0–1
D	Sun Oct 4	at	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	1–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Eugene Metro FC (6th)	6–1
D	Sun Sep 27	at	Idaho Rush (5th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Boise Timbers (7th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	United PDX (3rd)	2–1
W	Fri Sep 11	vs	Idaho Rush (5th)	1–0

Next: Wed Oct 28 vs Oregon Premier FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Capital FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Boise Timbers See all 16 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Wed Oct 28	vs	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	1–1	35%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Capital FC (2nd)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Boise Timbers (7th)	3–0	92%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Capital FC (2nd)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	United PDX (3rd)	1–0	54%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Eugene Metro FC (6th)	3–1	83%
·	Sat Feb 13	vs	Idaho Rush (5th)	2–0	68%
·	Sun Feb 14	vs	Boise Timbers (7th)	3–0	92%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Boise Timbers (7th)	3–0	88%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	Idaho Rush (5th)	1–0	60%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	United PDX (3rd)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	1–1	27%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	1–1	35%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Capital FC (2nd)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Eugene Metro FC (6th)	3–1	75%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Capital FC (2nd)	1–1	37%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Idaho Rush

-4

0.88

WLDWL

+0.22

+0.02

5.1

L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Capital FC (2nd)	1–3
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Boise Timbers (7th)	3–0
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	FC Portland (4th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	United PDX (3rd)	2–5
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Eugene Metro FC (6th)	4–1
L	Sun Sep 13	at	United PDX (3rd)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	0–3
L	Fri Sep 11	at	FC Portland (4th)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 17 at Boise Timbers · Sun Nov 1 vs Oregon Premier FC · Sat Nov 7 at Eugene Metro FC See all 16 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	at	Boise Timbers (7th)	2–1	70%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	1–2	13%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Eugene Metro FC (6th)	2–2	45%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Capital FC (2nd)	1–2	14%
·	Fri Jan 29	at	Eugene Metro FC (6th)	2–2	45%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	Capital FC (2nd)	1–2	14%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	0–2	9%
·	Sat Feb 13	at	FC Portland (4th)	0–2	13%
·	Sun Feb 14	at	United PDX (3rd)	1–1	22%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	United PDX (3rd)	1–1	29%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	FC Portland (4th)	0–1	18%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Eugene Metro FC (6th)	2–1	56%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Capital FC (2nd)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Mar 27	at	Boise Timbers (7th)	2–1	70%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Boise Timbers (7th)	2–0	77%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	1–2	13%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Eugene Metro FC

-9

0.60

WLLLL

+0.12

+0.26

5.8

L	Sun Oct 18	at	FC Portland (4th)	1–4
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC Portland (4th)	1–6
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Capital FC (2nd)	2–3
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Idaho Rush (5th)	1–4
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Boise Timbers (7th)	5–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Oregon Premier FC · Sun Nov 1 at United PDX · Sat Nov 7 vs Idaho Rush See all 19 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	1–4	4%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	United PDX (3rd)	1–3	14%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Idaho Rush (5th)	2–2	36%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Boise Timbers (7th)	3–1	77%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	United PDX (3rd)	1–2	21%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	1–4	7%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Capital FC (2nd)	1–4	7%
·	Fri Jan 29	vs	Idaho Rush (5th)	2–2	36%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	FC Portland (4th)	1–3	7%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	1–4	7%
·	Sat Feb 13	vs	Capital FC (2nd)	1–3	12%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	United PDX (3rd)	1–2	21%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	1–4	4%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Idaho Rush (5th)	1–2	26%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Boise Timbers (7th)	3–1	68%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Capital FC (2nd)	1–4	7%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Boise Timbers (7th)	3–1	77%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	FC Portland (4th)	1–3	12%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	United PDX (3rd)	1–3	14%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Boise Timbers

-25

0.00

LLLLL

+0.46

+0.43

7.0

L	Sun Oct 18	at	United PDX (3rd)	1–2
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	0–7
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Capital FC (2nd)	0–6
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Idaho Rush (5th)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	United PDX (3rd)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Portland (4th)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Eugene Metro FC (6th)	2–5

Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Idaho Rush · Sat Oct 31 vs Oregon Premier FC · Fri Nov 6 at Capital FC See all 17 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	vs	Idaho Rush (5th)	1–2	14%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	0–4	2%
·	Fri Nov 6	at	Capital FC (2nd)	0–4	2%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC Portland (4th)	0–3	2%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Eugene Metro FC (6th)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	0–5	1%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	Capital FC (2nd)	0–4	2%
·	Sat Feb 13	at	United PDX (3rd)	0–3	4%
·	Sun Feb 14	at	FC Portland (4th)	0–3	2%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	FC Portland (4th)	0–3	4%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	United PDX (3rd)	0–3	7%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Capital FC (2nd)	0–4	3%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Eugene Metro FC (6th)	1–3	18%
·	Sat Mar 27	vs	Idaho Rush (5th)	1–2	14%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Eugene Metro FC (6th)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Idaho Rush (5th)	0–2	9%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	0–4	2%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.98 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.