Capital FC
ECNL Boys · Far West BU14 · 7 teams · Capital FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM
CFC Pioneer Sportspark, Ed Davison 2 ↗
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.1 for, 1.3 against · 1.84 expected points)
| Season so far | Capital FC | United PDX |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2nd | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-0-1 | 5-0-2 |
| Points per game | 2.40 | 2.14 |
| Goals for / game | 3.0 | 1.9 |
| Goals against / game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W L | W W L W W |
| Biggest win | 6–0 at Boise Timbers | 5–2 at Idaho Rush |
| Worst loss | 1–3 at Oregon Premier FC | 0–2 vs Capital FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.07 | +0.38 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.39 | -0.36 |
Already played this season: Sat Oct 3 2–0 at United PDX (W)
Common opponents: Idaho Rush — we 3–1; they 1–0, 5–2. Boise Timbers — we 6–0; they 3–1, 2–1.
Game plan
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Swing game — small margins
Win 54% / draw 21% / loss 24%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
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What a win does
Oregon Premier FC sit 1st on 2.50 PPG; we are on 2.40.A win moves us above Oregon Premier FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the United PDX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Capital FC – United PDX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.50 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Win 2.50 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Draw 2.17 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Loss 2.00 PPG |
4th▼ down 2 | 4th▼ down 2 | 4th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 19%
- 2nd 38%
- 3rd 30%
- 4th 12%
- 5th <1%
- 6th
- 7th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 19 remaining known games (max 2.88 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oregon Premier FC | 2.50 (+0.10) | 1st (2.25) | Win next game |
How the results connect
29 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Capital FC to United PDX through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
13 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.08 · 6th hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 09:00 AM |
United PDX 3rd · 5-0-2 · GD +5 |
Home CFC Pioneer Sportspark |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 54% |
2–1 | 1.84 | 2.31 | Swing game |
| Sun Oct 25 09:00 AM |
Oregon Premier FC 1st · 3-1-0 · GD +12 |
Home CFC Pioneer Sportspark |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
1–1 | 1.21 | 2.15 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 11:00 AM |
FC Portland 4th · 5-2-1 · GD +12 |
Away far trip
Liberty High School |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
1–1 | 1.17 | 2.03 | Upside |
| Fri Nov 6 06:00 PM |
Boise Timbers 7th · 0-0-7 · GD -25 |
Home CFC Pioneer Sportspark |
●○○○○ Favorable | 94% |
4–0 | 2.87 | 2.12 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 8 11:00 AM |
Idaho Rush 5th · 2-1-5 · GD -4 |
Home CFC Pioneer Sportspark |
●●○○○ Lean win | 70% |
2–1 | 2.26 | 2.14 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 14 09:00 AM |
FC Portland 4th · 5-2-1 · GD +12 |
Home CFC Pioneer Sportspark |
●●●●○ Tough | 39% |
1–1 | 1.42 | 2.07 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 21 11:00 AM |
Eugene Metro FC 6th · 1-0-4 · GD -9 |
Home CFC Pioneer Sportspark |
●○○○○ Favorable | 85% |
4–1 | 2.62 | 2.12 | Bank it |
| Sat Jan 30 TBD |
Idaho Rush 5th · 2-1-5 · GD -4 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 70% |
2–1 | 2.26 | 2.13 | Swing game |
| Sun Jan 31 TBD |
Boise Timbers 7th · 0-0-7 · GD -25 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 94% |
4–0 | 2.87 | 2.18 | Bank it |
| Sat Feb 6 TBD |
Oregon Premier FC 1st · 3-1-0 · GD +12 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
1–1 | 1.21 | 2.12 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 7 TBD |
United PDX 3rd · 5-0-2 · GD +5 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
1–1 | 1.58 | 2.08 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 13 TBD |
Eugene Metro FC 6th · 1-0-4 · GD -9 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 77% |
3–1 | 2.41 | 2.10 | Bank it |
| Sat Feb 20 TBD |
Oregon Premier FC 1st · 3-1-0 · GD +12 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 25% |
1–2 | 0.94 | 2.04 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 TBD |
Boise Timbers 7th · 0-0-7 · GD -25 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 91% |
4–0 | 2.78 | 2.08 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 7 TBD |
Idaho Rush 5th · 2-1-5 · GD -4 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 61% |
2–1 | 2.02 | 2.07 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
United PDX 3rd · 5-0-2 · GD +5 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 54% |
2–1 | 1.84 | 2.06 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
Eugene Metro FC 6th · 1-0-4 · GD -9 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 85% |
4–1 | 2.62 | 2.09 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 4 03:00 PM |
FC Portland 4th · 5-2-1 · GD +12 |
Away far trip
Liberty High School · turf? |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
1–1 | 1.17 | 2.05 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
FC Portland 4th · 5-2-1 · GD +12 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 39% |
1–1 | 1.42 | 2.02 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Oregon Premier FC | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 2 | +12 | 10 | 2.50 | WWDW | -0.22 | -0.24 | 100% | 1.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Eugene Metro FC · Sun Oct 25 at Capital FC · Wed Oct 28 at FC Portland See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Capital FC | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 12 | 2.40 | LWWWW | -0.39 | -0.08 | 100% | 2.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs United PDX · Sun Oct 25 vs Oregon Premier FC · Sun Nov 1 at FC Portland See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | United PDX | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 15 | 2.14 | WWLWW | -0.36 | +0.10 | 98% | 3.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Capital FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Eugene Metro FC · Sun Nov 8 at Oregon Premier FC See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | FC Portland | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 6 | +12 | 17 | 2.13 | DWDLW | -0.36 | -0.01 | 100% | 2.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Wed Oct 28 vs Oregon Premier FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Capital FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Boise Timbers See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Idaho Rush | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 7 | 0.88 | WLDWL | +0.22 | +0.02 | 2% | 5.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at Boise Timbers · Sun Nov 1 vs Oregon Premier FC · Sat Nov 7 at Eugene Metro FC See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Eugene Metro FC | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 3 | 0.60 | WLLLL | +0.12 | +0.26 | 0% | 5.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Oregon Premier FC · Sun Nov 1 at United PDX · Sat Nov 7 vs Idaho Rush See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Boise Timbers | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 29 | -25 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.46 | +0.43 | 0% | 7.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Idaho Rush · Sat Oct 31 vs Oregon Premier FC · Fri Nov 6 at Capital FC See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.98 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.