Eugene Metro FC
ECNL Boys · Far West BU14 · 7 teams · Eugene Metro FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:30 PM
Lakeridge Middle School, Field 1 ↗ far trip
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–4 (expected goals 1.2 for, 4.8 against · 0.17 expected points)
| Season so far | Eugene Metro FC | Oregon Premier FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 1st |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-0-4 | 3-1-0 |
| Points per game | 0.60 | 2.50 |
| Goals for / game | 2.0 | 3.5 |
| Goals against / game | 3.8 | 0.5 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L L W | W D W W |
| Biggest win | 5–2 at Boise Timbers | 7–0 vs Boise Timbers |
| Worst loss | 1–6 vs FC Portland | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.10 | +1.59 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.12 | -0.22 |
Common opponents: Boise Timbers — we 5–2; they 7–0. Idaho Rush — we 1–4; they 3–0. Capital FC — we 2–3; they 3–1. FC Portland — we 1–6, 1–4; they 1–1.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
Oregon Premier FC score 3.5/game — well above the league's 2.0.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Hard to break down
Oregon Premier FC concede only 0.5/game with 2 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 4%; a draw (6%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 01:30 PM at Lakeridge Middle School.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Idaho Rush sit 5th on 0.88 PPG; we are on 0.60.A point moves us above Idaho Rush on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Oregon Premier FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Eugene Metro FC – Oregon Premier FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.50 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
| Win 1.00 PPG |
5th▲ up 1 | 5th▲ up 1 | 5th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 0.67 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
| Loss 0.50 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–4 loss we stay 6th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th <1%
- 5th 17%
- 6th 82%
- 7th 1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 19 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oregon Premier FC | 2.50 (+1.90) | 1st (2.25) | 57 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 52 for their projection |
| 2 | Capital FC | 2.40 (+1.80) | 2nd (2.02) | 55 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 46 for their projection |
| 3 | United PDX | 2.14 (+1.54) | 4th (1.70) | 49 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection |
| 4 | FC Portland | 2.13 (+1.53) | 3rd (1.98) | 49 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection |
| 5 | Idaho Rush | 0.88 (+0.28) | 5th (1.07) | A point next game |
How the results connect
20 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link Eugene Metro FC to Oregon Premier FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
13 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.26 · 2nd hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 01:30 PM |
Oregon Premier FC 1st · 3-1-0 · GD +12 |
Away far trip
Lakeridge Middle School |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
1–4 | 0.17 | 0.53 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 11:30 AM |
United PDX 3rd · 5-0-2 · GD +5 |
Away far trip
University of Oregon Portland - NE Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–3 | 0.57 | 0.53 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 12:00 PM |
Idaho Rush 5th · 2-1-5 · GD -4 |
Home Civic Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 36% |
2–2 | 1.27 | 0.63 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 12:00 PM |
Boise Timbers 7th · 0-0-7 · GD -25 |
Home Civic Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 77% |
3–1 | 2.44 | 0.83 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 14 12:00 PM |
United PDX 3rd · 5-0-2 · GD +5 |
Home Lane Community College |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
1–2 | 0.80 | 0.82 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 04:00 PM |
Oregon Premier FC 1st · 3-1-0 · GD +12 |
Home Lane Community College |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
1–4 | 0.29 | 0.78 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 21 11:00 AM |
Capital FC 2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +9 |
Away far trip
CFC Pioneer Sportspark |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
1–4 | 0.29 | 0.74 | Upside |
| Fri Jan 29 06:00 AM |
Idaho Rush 5th · 2-1-5 · GD -4 |
Home Lane Community College |
●●●●○ Tough | 36% |
2–2 | 1.27 | 0.78 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 6 05:00 PM |
FC Portland 4th · 5-2-1 · GD +12 |
Away far trip
Liberty High School · turf? |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
1–3 | 0.32 | 0.74 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 7 TBD |
Oregon Premier FC 1st · 3-1-0 · GD +12 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
1–4 | 0.29 | 0.71 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 13 TBD |
Capital FC 2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +9 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
1–3 | 0.47 | 0.70 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 20 10:00 AM |
United PDX 3rd · 5-0-2 · GD +5 |
Home Lane Community College |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
1–2 | 0.80 | 0.70 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 27 TBD |
Oregon Premier FC 1st · 3-1-0 · GD +12 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
1–4 | 0.17 | 0.68 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 TBD |
Idaho Rush 5th · 2-1-5 · GD -4 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
1–2 | 0.97 | 0.69 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 7 TBD |
Boise Timbers 7th · 0-0-7 · GD -25 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
3–1 | 2.18 | 0.77 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
Capital FC 2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +9 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
1–4 | 0.29 | 0.74 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 TBD |
Boise Timbers 7th · 0-0-7 · GD -25 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 77% |
3–1 | 2.44 | 0.82 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
FC Portland 4th · 5-2-1 · GD +12 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
1–3 | 0.48 | 0.80 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
United PDX 3rd · 5-0-2 · GD +5 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–3 | 0.57 | 0.80 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Oregon Premier FC | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 2 | +12 | 10 | 2.50 | WWDW | -0.22 | -0.24 | 100% | 1.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Eugene Metro FC · Sun Oct 25 at Capital FC · Wed Oct 28 at FC Portland See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Capital FC | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 12 | 2.40 | LWWWW | -0.39 | -0.08 | 100% | 2.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs United PDX · Sun Oct 25 vs Oregon Premier FC · Sun Nov 1 at FC Portland See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | United PDX | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 15 | 2.14 | WWLWW | -0.36 | +0.10 | 98% | 3.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Capital FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Eugene Metro FC · Sun Nov 8 at Oregon Premier FC See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | FC Portland | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 6 | +12 | 17 | 2.13 | DWDLW | -0.36 | -0.01 | 100% | 2.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Wed Oct 28 vs Oregon Premier FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Capital FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Boise Timbers See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Idaho Rush | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 7 | 0.88 | WLDWL | +0.22 | +0.02 | 2% | 5.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at Boise Timbers · Sun Nov 1 vs Oregon Premier FC · Sat Nov 7 at Eugene Metro FC See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Eugene Metro FC | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 3 | 0.60 | WLLLL | +0.12 | +0.26 | 0% | 5.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Oregon Premier FC · Sun Nov 1 at United PDX · Sat Nov 7 vs Idaho Rush See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Boise Timbers | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 29 | -25 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.46 | +0.43 | 0% | 7.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Idaho Rush · Sat Oct 31 vs Oregon Premier FC · Fri Nov 6 at Capital FC See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.98 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.