Boise Timbers
ECNL Boys · Far West BU13 · 7 teams · Boise Timbers | Thorns (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 31, 09:00 AM
Boise Timbers|Thorns - Soccer Complex, Field 4 ↗
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.7 for, 1.6 against · 1.98 expected points)
| Season so far | Boise Timbers | Oregon Premier FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-0-4 | 0-1-3 |
| Points per game | 1.29 | 0.25 |
| Goals for / game | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| Goals against / game | 2.1 | 2.3 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | L W L L L | L L L D |
| Biggest win | 6–0 vs Eugene Metro FC | — |
| Worst loss | 0–2 at United PDX | 0–2 vs Capital FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.24 | -0.49 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.10 | +0.61 |
Already played this season: Sat Oct 17 4–3 at Oregon Premier FC (W)
Common opponents: FC Portland — we 3–2; they 0–1. Idaho Rush — we 1–2; they 2–2. Capital FC — we 2–3; they 0–2.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 at United PDX.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 60% / draw 18% / loss 22%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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Confidence is low on their side
Oregon Premier FC have lost 3 straight (form: DLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
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Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Oregon Premier FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Boise Timbers – Oregon Premier FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.50 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Win 1.50 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Draw 1.25 PPG |
4th— holds | 5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.13 PPG |
5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 1%
- 2nd 6%
- 3rd 15%
- 4th 49%
- 5th 24%
- 6th 4%
- 7th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Capital FC | 3.00 (+1.71) | 1st (2.18) | 63 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection |
| 2 | Idaho Rush | 1.88 (+0.59) | 2nd (1.82) | 37 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection |
| 3 | FC Portland | 1.75 (+0.46) | 3rd (1.80) | 33 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection |
How the results connect
24 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link Boise Timbers to Oregon Premier FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
13 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.08 · 3rd hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 17 TBD no score posted |
Idaho Rush 2nd · 4-3-1 · GD +7 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 36% |
2–2 | 1.30 | 1.29 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 09:00 AM |
Oregon Premier FC 6th · 0-1-3 · GD -4 |
Home Boise Timbers|Thorns - Soccer Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
2–1 | 1.98 | 1.36 | Swing game |
| Fri Nov 6 06:00 PM |
Capital FC 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +7 |
Away far trip
CFC Pioneer Sportspark |
●●●●● Very tough | 22% |
1–2 | 0.85 | 1.31 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 01:00 PM |
FC Portland 3rd · 4-2-2 · GD +10 |
Away far trip
Liberty High School |
●●●●○ Tough | 25% |
2–2 | 0.93 | 1.28 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 10:00 AM |
Eugene Metro FC 7th · 0-0-5 · GD -18 |
Away far trip
Civic Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
3–1 | 2.45 | 1.38 | Bank it |
| Sat Jan 30 TBD |
Oregon Premier FC 6th · 0-1-3 · GD -4 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
2–1 | 1.69 | 1.40 | Swing game |
| Sun Jan 31 TBD |
Capital FC 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +7 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 22% |
1–2 | 0.85 | 1.36 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 13 TBD |
United PDX 5th · 2-2-3 · GD -5 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
2–2 | 1.57 | 1.38 | Swing game |
| Sun Feb 14 03:00 PM |
FC Portland 3rd · 4-2-2 · GD +10 |
Away far trip
Liberty High School · turf? |
●●●●○ Tough | 25% |
2–2 | 0.93 | 1.35 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 27 TBD |
FC Portland 3rd · 4-2-2 · GD +10 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.34 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 28 TBD |
United PDX 5th · 2-2-3 · GD -5 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
2–1 | 1.88 | 1.37 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 6 TBD |
Capital FC 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +7 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
1–2 | 1.12 | 1.36 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 7 TBD |
Eugene Metro FC 7th · 0-0-5 · GD -18 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 85% |
4–1 | 2.64 | 1.42 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 27 TBD |
Idaho Rush 2nd · 4-3-1 · GD +7 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 36% |
2–2 | 1.30 | 1.42 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 TBD |
Eugene Metro FC 7th · 0-0-5 · GD -18 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
3–1 | 2.45 | 1.46 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Idaho Rush 2nd · 4-3-1 · GD +7 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 27% |
1–2 | 1.00 | 1.44 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Oregon Premier FC 6th · 0-1-3 · GD -4 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
2–1 | 1.98 | 1.47 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Capital FC | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.36 | -0.14 | 100% | 1.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs United PDX · Sun Oct 25 vs Oregon Premier FC · Sun Nov 1 at FC Portland See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Idaho Rush | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 15 | 1.88 | WWWWL | -0.03 | -0.20 | 97% | 2.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at Boise Timbers · Sun Nov 1 vs Oregon Premier FC · Sat Nov 7 at Eugene Metro FC See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | FC Portland | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 13 | +10 | 14 | 1.75 | LWWDW | -0.49 | -0.04 | 98% | 2.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Wed Oct 28 vs Oregon Premier FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Capital FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Boise Timbers See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Boise Timbers | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 9 | 1.29 | LLLWL | -0.10 | -0.08 | 72% | 4.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Idaho Rush · Sat Oct 31 vs Oregon Premier FC · Fri Nov 6 at Capital FC See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | United PDX | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 8 | 1.14 | LWLDW | +0.58 | -0.24 | 28% | 4.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Capital FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Eugene Metro FC · Sun Nov 8 at Oregon Premier FC See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Oregon Premier FC | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 1 | 0.25 | DLLL | +0.61 | -0.08 | 5% | 5.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Eugene Metro FC · Sun Oct 25 at Capital FC · Wed Oct 28 at FC Portland See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Eugene Metro FC | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 21 | -18 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.66 | +0.18 | 0% | 7.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Oregon Premier FC · Sun Nov 1 at United PDX · Sat Nov 7 vs Idaho Rush See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.99 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.