TableChase Clubs

Oregon Premier FC

ECNL Boys · Far West BU13 · 7 teams · Oregon Premier FC (all teams)

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6th
0-1-3 record · 4 played
0.25 points per game
-4 goal diff · 5–9
DLLLlast 4
5% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.7
+0.61 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:30 AM

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Oregon Premier FC
6th · 0.25 PPG
vs
Eugene Metro FC
7th · 0.00 PPG

Lakeridge Middle School, Field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.7 for, 1.2 against · 2.26 expected points)

Season so farOregon Premier FCEugene Metro FC
Position6th7th
Record (W-D-L)0-1-30-0-5
Points per game0.250.00
Goals for / game1.30.6
Goals against / game2.34.2
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless23
Form (recent first)L L L DL L L L L
Biggest win——
Worst loss0–2 vs Capital FC0–6 at Boise Timbers
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.49-1.97
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.61+0.66

Common opponents: Idaho Rush — we 2–2; they 0–4. Capital FC — we 0–2; they 0–2. FC Portland — we 0–1; they 2–3, 1–6. Boise Timbers — we 3–4; they 0–6.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Eugene Metro FC average 0.6 goals/game (league avg 2.0); blanked in 3 of 5.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Eugene Metro FC concede 4.2/game; worst result 0–6 at Boise Timbers.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–2 vs Capital FC, 0–1 vs FC Portland.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 70% chance; likely score 2–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Eugene Metro FC have lost 5 straight (form: LLLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Eugene Metro FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Oregon Premier FC – Eugene Metro FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 0.80 PPG		 6th— holds 6th— holds 6th— holds
Win
0.80 PPG		 6th— holds 6th— holds 6th— holds
Draw
0.40 PPG		 6th— holds 6th— holds 6th— holds
Loss
0.20 PPG		 7th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 6th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
5% top 4
95% below the top 4
5.7 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd 1%
  4. 4th 4%
  5. 5th 18%
  6. 6th 75%
  7. 7th 2%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 20 remaining known games (max 2.54 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Capital FC 3.00 (+2.75) 1st (2.18) 71 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 52 for their projection
2 Idaho Rush 1.88 (+1.63) 2nd (1.82) 45 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection
3 FC Portland 1.75 (+1.50) 3rd (1.80) 41 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection
4 Boise Timbers 1.29 (+1.04) 4th (1.47) 30 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
5 United PDX 1.14 (+0.89) 5th (1.28) 27 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection

How the results connect

20 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Oregon Premier FC to Eugene Metro FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

17 favour us
3 even
0 favour them
+3.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–1 3–2 0–2 2–0 6–1 2–2 4–0 3–4 6–0 2–3 3–2 1–1 2–3 1–2 2–3 Oregon Premier FC 6th FC Portland 3rd Capital FC 1st Idaho Rush 2nd Boise Timbers 4th Eugene Metro FC 7th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

1st 4th 7th Sep 11 Sep 19 Sep 27 Oct 10 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.08 · 4th hardest of 7

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
11:30 AM		 Eugene Metro FC
7th · 0-0-5 · GD -18		 Home
Lakeridge Middle School		 ●●○○○ Lean win
70%		 2–1 2.26 0.65 Bank it
Sun Oct 25
09:00 AM		 Capital FC
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +7		 Away far trip
CFC Pioneer Sportspark		 ●●●●● Very tough
14%		 1–2 0.58 0.64 Upside
Wed Oct 28
07:45 PM		 FC Portland
3rd · 4-2-2 · GD +10		 Away far trip
Liberty High School		 ●●●●● Very tough
15%		 1–2 0.61 0.64 Upside
Sat Oct 31
09:00 AM		 Boise Timbers
4th · 3-0-4 · GD +3		 Away far trip
Boise Timbers|Thorns - Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
22%		 1–2 0.84 0.66 Upside
Sun Nov 1
09:00 AM		 Idaho Rush
2nd · 4-3-1 · GD +7		 Away far trip
Optimist Sports Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
17%		 1–2 0.69 0.67 Upside
Sun Nov 8
10:00 AM		 United PDX
5th · 2-2-3 · GD -5		 Home
Lake Oswego High School		 ●●●●○ Tough
40%		 1–1 1.42 0.74 Upside
Sun Nov 15
12:00 PM		 Eugene Metro FC
7th · 0-0-5 · GD -18		 Away far trip
Lane Community College		 ●●○○○ Lean win
61%		 2–1 2.02 0.86 Swing game
Sat Jan 16
11:30 AM		 United PDX
5th · 2-2-3 · GD -5		 Away far trip
University of Oregon Portland - NE Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
31%		 1–1 1.14 0.88 Upside
Sat Jan 30
TBD		 Boise Timbers
4th · 3-0-4 · GD +3		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
31%		 1–2 1.11 0.90 Upside
Sun Jan 31
TBD		 Idaho Rush
2nd · 4-3-1 · GD +7		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
24%		 1–2 0.92 0.90 Upside
Sat Feb 6
TBD		 Capital FC
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +7		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
14%		 1–2 0.58 0.88 Upside
Sun Feb 7
TBD		 Eugene Metro FC
7th · 0-0-5 · GD -18		 Away
●●○○○ Lean win
61%		 2–1 2.02 0.95 Swing game
Sat Feb 20
TBD		 Capital FC
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +7		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
20%		 1–2 0.79 0.94 Upside
Sat Feb 27
TBD		 Eugene Metro FC
7th · 0-0-5 · GD -18		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
70%		 2–1 2.26 1.01 Bank it
Sun Mar 7
TBD		 United PDX
5th · 2-2-3 · GD -5		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
40%		 1–1 1.42 1.04 Upside
Sat Mar 13
TBD		 FC Portland
3rd · 4-2-2 · GD +10		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
22%		 1–2 0.85 1.03 Upside
Sat Apr 3
11:00 AM		 FC Portland
3rd · 4-2-2 · GD +10		 Away far trip
Liberty High School · turf?		 ●●●●● Very tough
15%		 1–2 0.61 1.01 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD		 United PDX
5th · 2-2-3 · GD -5		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
31%		 1–1 1.14 1.01 Upside
Sat Apr 24
TBD		 Boise Timbers
4th · 3-0-4 · GD +3		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
22%		 1–2 0.84 1.00 Upside
Sun Apr 25
TBD		 Idaho Rush
2nd · 4-3-1 · GD +7		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
17%		 1–2 0.69 0.99 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Capital FC 5500 125+7 153.00 WWWWW -0.36 -0.14 100% 1.3
2 Idaho Rush 8431 1811+7 151.88 WWWWL -0.03 -0.20 97% 2.6
3 FC Portland 8422 2313+10 141.75 LWWDW -0.49 -0.04 98% 2.6
4 Boise Timbers 7304 1815+3 91.29 LLLWL -0.10 -0.08 72% 4.0
5 United PDX 7223 1116-5 81.14 LWLDW +0.58 -0.24 28% 4.8
6 Oregon Premier FC 4013 59-4 10.25 DLLL +0.61 -0.08 5% 5.7
7 Eugene Metro FC 5005 321-18 00.00 LLLLL +0.66 +0.18 0% 7.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.99 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.