Eugene Metro FC
ECNL Boys · Far West BU13 · 7 teams · Eugene Metro FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:30 AM
Lakeridge Middle School, Field 1 ↗ far trip
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.2 for, 2.7 against · 0.58 expected points)
| Season so far | Eugene Metro FC | Oregon Premier FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 7th | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-5 | 0-1-3 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Goals for / game | 0.6 | 1.3 |
| Goals against / game | 4.2 | 2.3 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 3 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L L L | L L L D |
| Biggest win | — | — |
| Worst loss | 0–6 at Boise Timbers | 0–2 vs Capital FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.97 | -0.49 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.66 | +0.61 |
Common opponents: Boise Timbers — we 0–6; they 3–4. Idaho Rush — we 0–4; they 2–2. Capital FC — we 0–2; they 0–2. FC Portland — we 2–3, 1–6; they 0–1.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–6 at Boise Timbers, 0–4 at Idaho Rush, 0–2 vs Capital FC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 14%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Confidence is low on their side
Oregon Premier FC have lost 3 straight (form: DLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
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Away game
Kickoff 11:30 AM at Lakeridge Middle School.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Oregon Premier FC sit 6th on 0.25 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above Oregon Premier FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Oregon Premier FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Eugene Metro FC – Oregon Premier FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.00 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 7th— holds |
| Win 0.50 PPG |
6th▲ up 1 | 6th▲ up 1 | 7th— holds |
| Draw 0.17 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 7th— holds |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 7th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 7th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th 2%
- 7th 98%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 19 remaining known games (max 2.38 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Capital FC | 3.00 (+3.00) | 1st (2.18) | 72 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 53 for their projection |
| 2 | Idaho Rush | 1.88 (+1.88) | 2nd (1.82) | 46 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection |
| 3 | FC Portland | 1.75 (+1.75) | 3rd (1.80) | 42 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection |
| 4 | Boise Timbers | 1.29 (+1.29) | 4th (1.47) | 31 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection |
| 5 | United PDX | 1.14 (+1.14) | 5th (1.28) | 28 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection |
| 6 | Oregon Premier FC | 0.25 (+0.25) | 6th (0.99) | A point next game |
How the results connect
20 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link Eugene Metro FC to Oregon Premier FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
13 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.18 · 1st hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 11:30 AM |
Oregon Premier FC 6th · 0-1-3 · GD -4 |
Away far trip
Lakeridge Middle School |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–2 | 0.58 | 0.10 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 01:30 PM |
United PDX 5th · 2-2-3 · GD -5 |
Away far trip
University of Oregon Portland - NE Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
1–3 | 0.49 | 0.15 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 10:00 AM |
Idaho Rush 2nd · 4-3-1 · GD +7 |
Home Civic Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
1–3 | 0.36 | 0.18 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 10:00 AM |
Boise Timbers 4th · 3-0-4 · GD +3 |
Home Civic Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 10% |
1–3 | 0.43 | 0.21 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 10:00 AM |
United PDX 5th · 2-2-3 · GD -5 |
Home Lane Community College |
●●●●● Very tough | 17% |
1–2 | 0.69 | 0.25 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 12:00 PM |
Oregon Premier FC 6th · 0-1-3 · GD -4 |
Home Lane Community College |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–2 | 0.80 | 0.30 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 21 11:00 AM |
Capital FC 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +7 |
Away far trip
CFC Pioneer Sportspark |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
0–3 | 0.18 | 0.29 | Upside |
| Fri Jan 29 06:00 AM |
Idaho Rush 2nd · 4-3-1 · GD +7 |
Home Lane Community College |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
1–3 | 0.36 | 0.30 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 6 03:00 PM |
FC Portland 3rd · 4-2-2 · GD +10 |
Away far trip
Liberty High School · turf? |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
1–4 | 0.17 | 0.29 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 7 TBD |
Oregon Premier FC 6th · 0-1-3 · GD -4 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–2 | 0.80 | 0.32 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 13 TBD |
Capital FC 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +7 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
0–3 | 0.29 | 0.32 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 20 12:00 PM |
United PDX 5th · 2-2-3 · GD -5 |
Home Bob Keefer |
●●●●● Very tough | 17% |
1–2 | 0.69 | 0.34 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 27 TBD |
Oregon Premier FC 6th · 0-1-3 · GD -4 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–2 | 0.58 | 0.36 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 TBD |
Idaho Rush 2nd · 4-3-1 · GD +7 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 5% |
0–3 | 0.23 | 0.35 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 7 TBD |
Boise Timbers 4th · 3-0-4 · GD +3 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
1–4 | 0.27 | 0.35 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
Capital FC 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +7 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
0–3 | 0.18 | 0.34 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 TBD |
Boise Timbers 4th · 3-0-4 · GD +3 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 10% |
1–3 | 0.43 | 0.34 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
FC Portland 3rd · 4-2-2 · GD +10 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
1–3 | 0.29 | 0.34 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
United PDX 5th · 2-2-3 · GD -5 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
1–3 | 0.49 | 0.35 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Capital FC | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.36 | -0.14 | 100% | 1.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs United PDX · Sun Oct 25 vs Oregon Premier FC · Sun Nov 1 at FC Portland See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Idaho Rush | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 15 | 1.88 | WWWWL | -0.03 | -0.20 | 97% | 2.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at Boise Timbers · Sun Nov 1 vs Oregon Premier FC · Sat Nov 7 at Eugene Metro FC See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | FC Portland | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 13 | +10 | 14 | 1.75 | LWWDW | -0.49 | -0.04 | 98% | 2.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Wed Oct 28 vs Oregon Premier FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Capital FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Boise Timbers See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Boise Timbers | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 9 | 1.29 | LLLWL | -0.10 | -0.08 | 72% | 4.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Idaho Rush · Sat Oct 31 vs Oregon Premier FC · Fri Nov 6 at Capital FC See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | United PDX | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 8 | 1.14 | LWLDW | +0.58 | -0.24 | 28% | 4.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Capital FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Eugene Metro FC · Sun Nov 8 at Oregon Premier FC See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Oregon Premier FC | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 1 | 0.25 | DLLL | +0.61 | -0.08 | 5% | 5.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Eugene Metro FC · Sun Oct 25 at Capital FC · Wed Oct 28 at FC Portland See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Eugene Metro FC | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 21 | -18 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.66 | +0.18 | 0% | 7.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Oregon Premier FC · Sun Nov 1 at United PDX · Sat Nov 7 vs Idaho Rush See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.99 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.