United PDX
ECNL Boys · Far West BU13 · 7 teams · United PDX (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM
CFC Pioneer Sportspark, Ed Davison 1 ↗ far trip
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.2 for, 2.5 against · 0.65 expected points)
| Season so far | United PDX | Capital FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 1st |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-2-3 | 5-0-0 |
| Points per game | 1.14 | 3.00 |
| Goals for / game | 1.6 | 2.4 |
| Goals against / game | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W D L W L | W W W W W |
| Biggest win | 2–0 vs Boise Timbers | 2–0 at Oregon Premier FC |
| Worst loss | 0–5 at FC Portland | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.31 | +0.85 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.58 | -0.36 |
Already played this season: Sat Oct 3 1–2 vs Capital FC (L)
Common opponents: Idaho Rush — we 1–1, 1–3; they 3–2. Boise Timbers — we 3–2, 2–0; they 3–2.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–5 at FC Portland.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 16%; a draw (17%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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They arrive in form
Capital FC have won 5 straight.Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
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Away game
Kickoff 09:00 AM at CFC Pioneer Sportspark.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
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What a win does
Boise Timbers sit 4th on 1.29 PPG; we are on 1.14.A point moves us above Boise Timbers on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Capital FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (United PDX – Capital FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 1.00 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 6th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.38 PPG |
4th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.13 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 6th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.00 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 6th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 5th even if every rival loses, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd 1%
- 3rd 4%
- 4th 23%
- 5th 54%
- 6th 18%
- 7th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.46 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Capital FC | 3.00 (+1.86) | 1st (2.18) | 64 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection |
| 2 | Idaho Rush | 1.88 (+0.74) | 2nd (1.82) | 38 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection |
| 3 | FC Portland | 1.75 (+0.61) | 3rd (1.80) | 34 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection |
| 4 | Boise Timbers | 1.29 (+0.15) | 4th (1.47) | A point next game |
How the results connect
29 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link United PDX to Capital FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
13 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.24 · 7th hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 09:00 AM |
Capital FC 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +7 |
Away far trip
CFC Pioneer Sportspark |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
1–2 | 0.65 | 1.08 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 01:30 PM |
Eugene Metro FC 7th · 0-0-5 · GD -18 |
Home University of Oregon Portland - NE Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 74% |
3–1 | 2.37 | 1.22 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 8 10:00 AM |
Oregon Premier FC 6th · 0-1-3 · GD -4 |
Away far trip
Lake Oswego High School |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
1–1 | 1.36 | 1.24 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 10:00 AM |
Eugene Metro FC 7th · 0-0-5 · GD -18 |
Away far trip
Lane Community College |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
2–1 | 2.14 | 1.32 | Swing game |
| Sat Jan 16 11:30 AM |
Oregon Premier FC 6th · 0-1-3 · GD -4 |
Home University of Oregon Portland - NE Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
1–1 | 1.64 | 1.35 | Swing game |
| Sat Jan 30 03:00 PM |
FC Portland 3rd · 4-2-2 · GD +10 |
Away far trip
Liberty High School · turf? |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
1–2 | 0.69 | 1.30 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 7 TBD |
Capital FC 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +7 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 22% |
1–2 | 0.87 | 1.27 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 13 TBD |
Boise Timbers 4th · 3-0-4 · GD +3 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.23 | 1.26 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 14 TBD |
Idaho Rush 2nd · 4-3-1 · GD +7 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 27% |
1–2 | 1.01 | 1.25 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 20 12:00 PM |
Eugene Metro FC 7th · 0-0-5 · GD -18 |
Away far trip
Bob Keefer |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
2–1 | 2.14 | 1.30 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 27 TBD |
Idaho Rush 2nd · 4-3-1 · GD +7 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
1–2 | 0.77 | 1.27 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 28 TBD |
Boise Timbers 4th · 3-0-4 · GD +3 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 25% |
1–2 | 0.94 | 1.25 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 TBD |
FC Portland 3rd · 4-2-2 · GD +10 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 25% |
1–2 | 0.95 | 1.24 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 7 TBD |
Oregon Premier FC 6th · 0-1-3 · GD -4 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
1–1 | 1.36 | 1.24 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
Capital FC 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +7 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
1–2 | 0.65 | 1.22 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Oregon Premier FC 6th · 0-1-3 · GD -4 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
1–1 | 1.64 | 1.24 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
Eugene Metro FC 7th · 0-0-5 · GD -18 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 74% |
3–1 | 2.37 | 1.28 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Capital FC | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.36 | -0.14 | 100% | 1.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs United PDX · Sun Oct 25 vs Oregon Premier FC · Sun Nov 1 at FC Portland See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Idaho Rush | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 15 | 1.88 | WWWWL | -0.03 | -0.20 | 98% | 2.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at Boise Timbers · Sun Nov 1 vs Oregon Premier FC · Sat Nov 7 at Eugene Metro FC See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | FC Portland | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 13 | +10 | 14 | 1.75 | LWWDW | -0.49 | -0.04 | 97% | 2.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Wed Oct 28 vs Oregon Premier FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Capital FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Boise Timbers See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Boise Timbers | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 9 | 1.29 | LLLWL | -0.10 | -0.08 | 72% | 4.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Idaho Rush · Sat Oct 31 vs Oregon Premier FC · Fri Nov 6 at Capital FC See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | United PDX | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 8 | 1.14 | LWLDW | +0.58 | -0.24 | 28% | 4.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Capital FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Eugene Metro FC · Sun Nov 8 at Oregon Premier FC See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Oregon Premier FC | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 1 | 0.25 | DLLL | +0.61 | -0.08 | 5% | 5.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Eugene Metro FC · Sun Oct 25 at Capital FC · Wed Oct 28 at FC Portland See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Eugene Metro FC | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 21 | -18 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.66 | +0.18 | 0% | 7.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Oregon Premier FC · Sun Nov 1 at United PDX · Sat Nov 7 vs Idaho Rush See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.99 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.