Capital FC

ECNL Boys · Far West BU13 · 7 teams · Capital FC (all teams)

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1st

5-0-0 record · 5 played

3.00 points per game

+7 goal diff · 12–5

WWWWWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.3

-0.36 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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Capital FC
1st · 3.00 PPG

United PDX
5th · 1.14 PPG

CFC Pioneer Sportspark, Ed Davison 1 ↗

67% 17% 16%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.5 for, 1.2 against · 2.17 expected points)

Season so far	Capital FC	United PDX
Position	1st	5th
Record (W-D-L)	5-0-0	2-2-3
Points per game	3.00	1.14
Goals for / game	2.4	1.6
Goals against / game	1.0	2.3
Clean sheets	2	1
Held scoreless	0	1
Form (recent first)	W W W W W	W D L W L
Biggest win	2–0 at Oregon Premier FC	2–0 vs Boise Timbers
Worst loss	—	0–5 at FC Portland
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.85	-0.31
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.36	+0.58

Already played this season: Sat Oct 3 2–1 at United PDX (W)

Common opponents: Idaho Rush — we 3–2; they 1–1, 1–3. Boise Timbers — we 3–2; they 3–2, 2–0.

Game plan

Swing game — small margins
Win 67% / draw 17% / loss 16%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.
Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the United PDX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Capital FC – United PDX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 3.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 3.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.67 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Loss 2.50 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

77% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.3 average finish

1st 77%
2nd 16%
3rd 6%
4th 1%
5th <1%
6th
7th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

29 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Capital FC to United PDX through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

18 favour us

5 even

6 favour them

+1.3 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.14 · 5th hardest of 7

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 09:00 AM	United PDX 5th · 2-2-3 · GD -5	Home CFC Pioneer Sportspark	●●○○○ Lean win	67%	2–1	2.17	2.86	Swing game
Sun Oct 25 09:00 AM	Oregon Premier FC 6th · 0-1-3 · GD -4	Home CFC Pioneer Sportspark	●●○○○ Lean win	69%	2–1	2.25	2.77	Swing game
Sun Nov 1 09:00 AM	FC Portland 3rd · 4-2-2 · GD +10	Away far trip Liberty High School	●●●●○ Tough	39%	1–1	1.37	2.60	Upside
Fri Nov 6 06:00 PM	Boise Timbers 4th · 3-0-4 · GD +3	Home CFC Pioneer Sportspark	●●○○○ Lean win	60%	2–1	1.97	2.53	Swing game
Sun Nov 8 09:00 AM	Idaho Rush 2nd · 4-3-1 · GD +7	Home CFC Pioneer Sportspark	●●●○○ Toss-up	48%	1–1	1.68	2.44	Swing game
Sat Nov 14 09:00 AM	FC Portland 3rd · 4-2-2 · GD +10	Home CFC Pioneer Sportspark	●●●○○ Toss-up	49%	2–1	1.66	2.37	Swing game
Sat Nov 21 11:00 AM	Eugene Metro FC 7th · 0-0-5 · GD -18	Home CFC Pioneer Sportspark	●○○○○ Favorable	89%	3–0	2.75	2.40	Bank it
Sat Jan 30 TBD	Idaho Rush 2nd · 4-3-1 · GD +7	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	48%	1–1	1.68	2.35	Swing game
Sun Jan 31 TBD	Boise Timbers 4th · 3-0-4 · GD +3	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	60%	2–1	1.97	2.32	Swing game
Sat Feb 6 TBD	Oregon Premier FC 6th · 0-1-3 · GD -4	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	69%	2–1	2.25	2.32	Swing game
Sun Feb 7 TBD	United PDX 5th · 2-2-3 · GD -5	Away	●●●○○ Toss-up	57%	2–1	1.93	2.29	Swing game
Sat Feb 13 TBD	Eugene Metro FC 7th · 0-0-5 · GD -18	Away	●○○○○ Favorable	84%	3–0	2.61	2.31	Bank it
Sat Feb 20 TBD	Oregon Premier FC 6th · 0-1-3 · GD -4	Away	●●○○○ Lean win	61%	2–1	2.01	2.29	Swing game
Sat Mar 6 TBD	Boise Timbers 4th · 3-0-4 · GD +3	Away	●●●○○ Toss-up	49%	2–1	1.68	2.26	Swing game
Sun Mar 7 TBD	Idaho Rush 2nd · 4-3-1 · GD +7	Away	●●●●○ Tough	39%	1–1	1.41	2.22	Upside
Sat Mar 13 TBD	United PDX 5th · 2-2-3 · GD -5	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	67%	2–1	2.17	2.22	Swing game
Sat Apr 3 TBD	Eugene Metro FC 7th · 0-0-5 · GD -18	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	89%	3–0	2.75	2.24	Bank it
Sun Apr 4 05:00 PM	FC Portland 3rd · 4-2-2 · GD +10	Away far trip Liberty High School · turf?	●●●●○ Tough	39%	1–1	1.37	2.20	Upside
Sun Apr 25 TBD	FC Portland 3rd · 4-2-2 · GD +10	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	49%	2–1	1.66	2.18	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Capital FC

3.00

WWWWW

-0.36

-0.14

100%

1.3

W	Sun Oct 11	at	Boise Timbers (4th)	3–2
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Idaho Rush (2nd)	3–2
W	Sat Oct 3	at	United PDX (5th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Eugene Metro FC (7th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Oregon Premier FC (6th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs United PDX · Sun Oct 25 vs Oregon Premier FC · Sun Nov 1 at FC Portland See all 19 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	United PDX (5th)	2–1	67%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Oregon Premier FC (6th)	2–1	69%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	FC Portland (3rd)	1–1	39%
·	Fri Nov 6	vs	Boise Timbers (4th)	2–1	60%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Idaho Rush (2nd)	1–1	48%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	FC Portland (3rd)	2–1	49%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Eugene Metro FC (7th)	3–0	89%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	Idaho Rush (2nd)	1–1	48%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	Boise Timbers (4th)	2–1	60%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Oregon Premier FC (6th)	2–1	69%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	United PDX (5th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Feb 13	at	Eugene Metro FC (7th)	3–0	84%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Oregon Premier FC (6th)	2–1	61%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Boise Timbers (4th)	2–1	49%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Idaho Rush (2nd)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	United PDX (5th)	2–1	67%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Eugene Metro FC (7th)	3–0	89%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	FC Portland (3rd)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	FC Portland (3rd)	2–1	49%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Idaho Rush

1.88

WWWWL

-0.03

-0.20

98%

2.5

L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Capital FC (1st)	2–3
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Boise Timbers (4th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	FC Portland (3rd)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	United PDX (5th)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Eugene Metro FC (7th)	4–0
D	Sun Sep 13	at	United PDX (5th)	1–1
D	Sat Sep 12	at	Oregon Premier FC (6th)	2–2
D	Fri Sep 11	at	FC Portland (3rd)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 17 at Boise Timbers · Sun Nov 1 vs Oregon Premier FC · Sat Nov 7 at Eugene Metro FC See all 16 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	at	Boise Timbers (4th)	2–2	43%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Oregon Premier FC (6th)	2–1	65%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Eugene Metro FC (7th)	3–1	80%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Capital FC (1st)	1–1	29%
·	Fri Jan 29	at	Eugene Metro FC (7th)	3–1	80%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	Capital FC (1st)	1–1	29%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	Oregon Premier FC (6th)	2–1	56%
·	Sat Feb 13	at	FC Portland (3rd)	1–2	33%
·	Sun Feb 14	at	United PDX (5th)	2–1	52%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	United PDX (5th)	2–1	62%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	FC Portland (3rd)	2–1	43%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Eugene Metro FC (7th)	3–0	87%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Capital FC (1st)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Mar 27	at	Boise Timbers (4th)	2–2	43%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Boise Timbers (4th)	2–1	54%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Oregon Premier FC (6th)	2–1	65%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Portland

+10

1.75

LWWDW

-0.49

-0.04

98%

2.6

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Eugene Metro FC (7th)	6–1
D	Sat Oct 10	at	United PDX (5th)	3–3
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Oregon Premier FC (6th)	1–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Eugene Metro FC (7th)	3–2
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Idaho Rush (2nd)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Boise Timbers (4th)	2–3
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	United PDX (5th)	5–0
D	Fri Sep 11	vs	Idaho Rush (2nd)	1–1

Next: Wed Oct 28 vs Oregon Premier FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Capital FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Boise Timbers See all 16 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Wed Oct 28	vs	Oregon Premier FC (6th)	2–1	69%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Capital FC (1st)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Boise Timbers (4th)	2–2	58%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Capital FC (1st)	1–2	31%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	United PDX (5th)	2–1	66%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Eugene Metro FC (7th)	4–1	90%
·	Sat Feb 13	vs	Idaho Rush (2nd)	2–1	46%
·	Sun Feb 14	vs	Boise Timbers (4th)	2–2	58%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Boise Timbers (4th)	2–2	46%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	Idaho Rush (2nd)	1–2	36%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	United PDX (5th)	2–1	56%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Oregon Premier FC (6th)	2–1	60%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Oregon Premier FC (6th)	2–1	69%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Capital FC (1st)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Eugene Metro FC (7th)	3–1	84%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Capital FC (1st)	1–2	31%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Boise Timbers

1.29

LLLWL

-0.10

-0.08

71%

4.0

L	Sun Oct 18	at	United PDX (5th)	0–2
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Oregon Premier FC (6th)	4–3
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Capital FC (1st)	2–3
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Idaho Rush (2nd)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	United PDX (5th)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Portland (3rd)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Eugene Metro FC (7th)	6–0

Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Idaho Rush · Sat Oct 31 vs Oregon Premier FC · Fri Nov 6 at Capital FC See all 17 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	vs	Idaho Rush (2nd)	2–2	36%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Oregon Premier FC (6th)	2–1	60%
·	Fri Nov 6	at	Capital FC (1st)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC Portland (3rd)	2–2	25%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Eugene Metro FC (7th)	3–1	78%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	Oregon Premier FC (6th)	2–1	50%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	Capital FC (1st)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Feb 13	at	United PDX (5th)	2–2	46%
·	Sun Feb 14	at	FC Portland (3rd)	2–2	25%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	FC Portland (3rd)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	United PDX (5th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Capital FC (1st)	1–2	31%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Eugene Metro FC (7th)	4–1	85%
·	Sat Mar 27	vs	Idaho Rush (2nd)	2–2	36%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Eugene Metro FC (7th)	3–1	78%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Idaho Rush (2nd)	1–2	27%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Oregon Premier FC (6th)	2–1	60%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

United PDX

-5

1.14

LWLDW

+0.58

-0.24

29%

4.8

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Boise Timbers (4th)	2–0
D	Sat Oct 10	vs	FC Portland (3rd)	3–3
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Capital FC (1st)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Boise Timbers (4th)	3–2
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Idaho Rush (2nd)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 20	at	FC Portland (3rd)	0–5
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	Idaho Rush (2nd)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Capital FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Eugene Metro FC · Sun Nov 8 at Oregon Premier FC See all 17 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Capital FC (1st)	1–2	16%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Eugene Metro FC (7th)	3–1	74%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Oregon Premier FC (6th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Eugene Metro FC (7th)	2–1	66%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	Oregon Premier FC (6th)	1–1	48%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	FC Portland (3rd)	1–2	18%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Capital FC (1st)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Feb 13	vs	Boise Timbers (4th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Feb 14	vs	Idaho Rush (2nd)	1–2	27%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Eugene Metro FC (7th)	2–1	66%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Idaho Rush (2nd)	1–2	19%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	Boise Timbers (4th)	1–2	25%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	FC Portland (3rd)	1–2	25%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Oregon Premier FC (6th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Capital FC (1st)	1–2	16%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Oregon Premier FC (6th)	1–1	48%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Eugene Metro FC (7th)	3–1	74%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Oregon Premier FC

-4

0.25

DLLL

+0.61

-0.08

5.7

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Boise Timbers (4th)	3–4
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	FC Portland (3rd)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Capital FC (1st)	0–2
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	Idaho Rush (2nd)	2–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Eugene Metro FC · Sun Oct 25 at Capital FC · Wed Oct 28 at FC Portland See all 20 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Eugene Metro FC (7th)	2–1	70%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Capital FC (1st)	1–2	14%
·	Wed Oct 28	at	FC Portland (3rd)	1–2	15%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Boise Timbers (4th)	1–2	22%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Idaho Rush (2nd)	1–2	17%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	United PDX (5th)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Eugene Metro FC (7th)	2–1	61%
·	Sat Jan 16	at	United PDX (5th)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	Boise Timbers (4th)	1–2	31%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	Idaho Rush (2nd)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Capital FC (1st)	1–2	14%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	Eugene Metro FC (7th)	2–1	61%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Capital FC (1st)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Eugene Metro FC (7th)	2–1	70%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	United PDX (5th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	FC Portland (3rd)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	FC Portland (3rd)	1–2	15%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	United PDX (5th)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Boise Timbers (4th)	1–2	22%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Idaho Rush (2nd)	1–2	17%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Eugene Metro FC

-18

0.00

LLLLL

+0.66

+0.18

7.0

L	Sun Oct 18	at	FC Portland (3rd)	1–6
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC Portland (3rd)	2–3
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Capital FC (1st)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Idaho Rush (2nd)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Boise Timbers (4th)	0–6

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Oregon Premier FC · Sun Nov 1 at United PDX · Sat Nov 7 vs Idaho Rush See all 19 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Oregon Premier FC (6th)	1–2	14%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	United PDX (5th)	1–3	12%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Idaho Rush (2nd)	1–3	8%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Boise Timbers (4th)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	United PDX (5th)	1–2	17%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Oregon Premier FC (6th)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Capital FC (1st)	0–3	4%
·	Fri Jan 29	vs	Idaho Rush (2nd)	1–3	8%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	FC Portland (3rd)	1–4	4%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Oregon Premier FC (6th)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Feb 13	vs	Capital FC (1st)	0–3	6%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	United PDX (5th)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Oregon Premier FC (6th)	1–2	14%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Idaho Rush (2nd)	0–3	5%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Boise Timbers (4th)	1–4	6%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Capital FC (1st)	0–3	4%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Boise Timbers (4th)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	FC Portland (3rd)	1–3	6%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	United PDX (5th)	1–3	12%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.99 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.