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Total Futbol Academy - OC 2

Elite Academy League 2 · LA South U16 · 12 teams · Total Futbol Academy - OC (all teams)

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4th
4-0-2 record · 6 played
2.00 points per game
+5 goal diff · 17–12
WWWWLlast 5
43% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.7
+0.24 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:40 PM

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Total Futbol Academy - OC 2
4th · 2.00 PPG
at

Bishop Mora Salesian High School, Keegan Stadium ↗ · turf?

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.7 for, 2.3 against · 1.64 expected points)

Season so farTotal Futbol Academy - OC 2FC Golden State Force (2)
Position4th8th
Record (W-D-L)4-0-22-1-3
Points per game2.001.17
Goals for / game2.82.3
Goals against / game2.02.7
Clean sheets11
Held scoreless02
Form (recent first)L W W W WL W W D L
Biggest win6–0 vs City SC Los Angeles 28–0 vs Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club
Worst loss1–3 vs Downey United Football Club1–9 at Pride FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.55-0.18
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.24+0.06

Common opponents: Autobahn SA — we 2–1; they 4–2. Pride FC — we 2–1; they 1–9. LAIFC (2) — we 3–2; they 0–3.

Game plan

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 49% / draw 18% / loss 33%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 03:40 PM at Bishop Mora Salesian High School.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Golden State Force (2) game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 – FC Golden State Force (2)) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.86 PPG
4th— holds 5th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 2
Win
2.14 PPG
4th— holds 4th— holds 5th▼ down 1
Draw
1.86 PPG
4th— holds 5th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 2
Loss
1.71 PPG
5th▼ down 1 5th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
43% top 4
57% below the top 4
4.7 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 1%
  3. 3rd 8%
  4. 4th 35%
  5. 5th 41%
  6. 6th 12%
  7. 7th 3%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.73 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Culver City 3.00 (+1.00) 1st (2.47) 54 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection
2 Downey United Football Club 2.71 (+0.71) 2nd (2.37) 48 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection
3 FC Premier 2.33 (+0.33) 4th (1.84) 40 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection

How the results connect

17 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 to FC Golden State Force (2) through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

10 favour us
2 even
5 favour them
+1.8 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–1 2–4 3–2 3–0 2–1 9–1 0–1 1–1 1–3 6–2 6–0 4–1 0–8 2–1 4–0 2–6 1–0 0–6 1–7 5–2 Total Futbol Academ… 4th Autobahn SA 10th LAIFC (2) 6th Pride FC 5th Downey United Footb… 2nd City SC Los Angeles… 9th Los Angeles SC 2 7th Sporting So-Cal Soc… 12th Culver City 1st FC Golden State For… 8th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 6th 12th Sep 6 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.13 · 10th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
03:40 PM
FC Golden State Force (2)
8th · 2-1-3 · GD -2
Away
Bishop Mora Salesian High School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
2–2 1.64 1.95 Swing game
Sun Oct 25
05:10 PM
Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club
12th · 0-0-6 · GD -21
Away
Glendale High School · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
83%
4–1 2.57 2.03 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
03:15 PM
Culver City
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +22
Home
Hoover High School · turf
●●●●● Very tough
19%
1–3 0.71 1.88 Upside
Sat Nov 14
02:45 PM
Bell Gardens Football Club
11th · 0-1-4 · GD -10
Home
Hoover High School · turf
●●○○○ Lean win
75%
3–1 2.38 1.93 Bank it
Sun Nov 15
01:45 PM
Downey United Football Club
2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +15
Away
St. Pius X - St. Matthias Academy (PMA) · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
16%
1–2 0.66 1.81 Upside
Sun Nov 22
02:55 PM
Bell Gardens Football Club
11th · 0-1-4 · GD -10
Away
JW NORTH Stadium · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
2–1 2.13 1.84 Swing game
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM
City SC Los Angeles 2
9th · 1-1-4 · GD -14
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
71%
3–1 2.26 1.87 Bank it
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM
Autobahn SA
10th · 1-0-5 · GD -11
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
76%
3–1 2.38 1.91 Bank it
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM
Pride FC
5th · 3-0-2 · GD +15
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
16%
1–3 0.63 1.82 Upside
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM
Los Angeles SC 2
7th · 2-3-1 · GD -2
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
2–1 2.02 1.84 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
LAIFC (2)
6th · 4-0-3 · GD +0
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
2–2 1.55 1.82 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
03:05 PM
FC Premier
3rd · 2-1-0 · GD +3
Away
St John Bosco High School · turf
●●●●○ Tough
33%
1–2 1.17 1.78 Upside
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM
FC Golden State Force (2)
8th · 2-1-3 · GD -2
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
3–1 1.96 1.79 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM
Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club
12th · 0-0-6 · GD -21
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
89%
4–1 2.74 1.84 Bank it
Sat May 1
12:00 AM
Culver City
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +22
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
12%
1–3 0.48 1.78 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
Los Angeles SC 2
7th · 2-3-1 · GD -2
Away
West Covina High School
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
2–1 1.75 1.78 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Culver City 5500 264+22 153.00 WWWWW -1.00 +0.05 100% 1.5
2 Downey United Football Club 7610 194+15 192.71 DWWWW +0.04 -0.20 99% 2.0
3 FC Premier 3210 74+3 72.33 WDW +0.35 -0.10 55% 4.4
4 Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 6402 1712+5 122.00 WWWWL +0.24 -0.13 43% 4.7
5 Pride FC 5302 205+15 91.80 WWLLW -0.15 -0.15 95% 2.9
6 LAIFC (2) 7403 1515+0 121.71 WWLLW -0.13 +0.08 5% 6.2
7 Los Angeles SC 2 6231 79-2 91.50 WDDDL -0.72 +0.36 0% 7.8
8 FC Golden State Force (2) 6213 1416-2 71.17 LDWWL +0.06 +0.03 1% 7.1
9 City SC Los Angeles 2 6114 923-14 40.67 LDLWL +0.26 +0.08 0% 10.0
10 Autobahn SA 6105 1122-11 30.50 LLLLW +0.17 +0.07 0% 9.6
11 Bell Gardens Football Club 5014 414-10 10.20 LLLDL +0.71 -0.06 0% 10.0
12 Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club 6006 728-21 00.00 LLLLL -0.20 +0.37 0% 11.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.26 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.