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Pride FC

Elite Academy League 2 · LA South U16 · 12 teams · SoCal Pride FC (all teams)

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5th
3-0-2 record · 5 played
1.80 points per game
+15 goal diff · 20–5
WWLLWlast 5
96% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.9
-0.15 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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Pride FC
5th · 1.80 PPG
at
Los Angeles SC 2
7th · 1.50 PPG

West Covina High School, Thyberg Field ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.6 for, 1.0 against · 2.28 expected points)

Season so farPride FCLos Angeles SC 2
Position5th7th
Record (W-D-L)3-0-22-3-1
Points per game1.801.50
Goals for / game4.01.2
Goals against / game1.01.5
Clean sheets11
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)W L L W WL D D D W
Biggest win9–1 vs FC Golden State Force (2)2–1 at Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club
Worst loss0–1 vs Downey United Football Club0–4 at Downey United Football Club
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.82-0.39
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.15-0.72

Common opponents: FC Golden State Force (2) — we 9–1; they 1–1. City SC Los Angeles 2 — we 4–0; they 2–2. Downey United Football Club — we 0–1; they 0–4. Bell Gardens Football Club — we 6–1; they 1–1.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs Downey United Football Club.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 70% chance; likely score 2–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at West Covina High School.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 sit 4th on 2.00 PPG; we are on 1.80.

    A win moves us above Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Los Angeles SC 2 game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Pride FC – Los Angeles SC 2) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.00 PPG
4th▲ up 1 3rd▲ up 2 5th— holds
Win
2.00 PPG
4th▲ up 1 3rd▲ up 2 5th— holds
Draw
1.67 PPG
6th▼ down 1 5th— holds 6th▼ down 1
Loss
1.50 PPG
7th▼ down 2 7th▼ down 2 8th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

7% finish 1st
96% top 4
4% below the top 4
2.9 average finish
  1. 1st 7%
  2. 2nd 23%
  3. 3rd 52%
  4. 4th 14%
  5. 5th 4%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.73 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Culver City 3.00 (+1.20) 1st (2.47) 57 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 46 for their projection
2 Downey United Football Club 2.71 (+0.91) 2nd (2.37) 51 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection
3 FC Premier 2.33 (+0.53) 4th (1.84) 43 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
4 Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 2.00 (+0.20) 5th (1.78) Win next game

How the results connect

13 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Pride FC to Los Angeles SC 2 through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

12 favour us
1 favour them
+5.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–1 4–0 4–0 2–2 6–1 1–1 9–1 1–1 1–2 1–3 2–1 0–1 3–0 6–2 6–0 4–1 1–2 4–2 Pride FC 5th Downey United Footb… 2nd City SC Los Angeles… 9th Bell Gardens Footba… 11th FC Golden State For… 8th Total Futbol Academ… 4th Autobahn SA 10th Sporting So-Cal Soc… 12th Los Angeles SC 2 7th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 6th 12th Sep 6 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.15 · 11th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 11
01:45 PM
no score posted
FC Premier
3rd · 2-1-0 · GD +3
Home
Borchard Community Park
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
2–1 2.12 1.85 Swing game
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM
Los Angeles SC 2
7th · 2-3-1 · GD -2
Away
West Covina High School
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
2–1 2.28 1.91 Bank it
Sun Oct 25
02:00 PM
LAIFC (2)
6th · 4-0-3 · GD +0
Away
Silverlakes Sports Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
68%
3–1 2.19 1.95 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
03:35 PM
Autobahn SA
10th · 1-0-5 · GD -11
Home
Borchard Community Park
●○○○○ Favorable
90%
4–1 2.77 2.04 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
03:40 PM
Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club
12th · 0-0-6 · GD -21
Away
Glendale High School · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
94%
5–1 2.86 2.12 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
12:05 PM
Culver City
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +22
Home
Borchard Community Park
●●●●○ Tough
39%
2–2 1.36 2.05 Upside
Sat Nov 14
01:15 PM
FC Golden State Force (2)
8th · 2-1-3 · GD -2
Away
Rio Hondo College · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
72%
3–1 2.28 2.07 Bank it
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM
Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club
12th · 0-0-6 · GD -21
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
97%
6–0 2.92 2.14 Bank it
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM
City SC Los Angeles 2
9th · 1-1-4 · GD -14
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
93%
5–1 2.82 2.19 Bank it
Sun Mar 14
01:45 PM
Downey United Football Club
2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +15
Away
St. Pius X - St. Matthias Academy (PMA) · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
33%
1–1 1.20 2.12 Upside
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy - OC 2
4th · 4-0-2 · GD +5
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
3–1 2.23 2.13 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
02:05 PM
FC Premier
3rd · 2-1-0 · GD +3
Away
St John Bosco High School · turf
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%
2–1 1.83 2.11 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
12:00 AM
Bell Gardens Football Club
11th · 0-1-4 · GD -10
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
89%
4–0 2.73 2.14 Bank it
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM
Los Angeles SC 2
7th · 2-3-1 · GD -2
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
2–0 2.48 2.16 Bank it
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM
LAIFC (2)
6th · 4-0-3 · GD +0
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
77%
3–1 2.43 2.17 Bank it
Sat May 1
12:00 AM
Autobahn SA
10th · 1-0-5 · GD -11
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
84%
4–1 2.62 2.20 Bank it
Sun May 2
12:00 AM
Culver City
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +22
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
29%
1–2 1.05 2.14 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Culver City 5500 264+22 153.00 WWWWW -1.00 +0.05 100% 1.5
2 Downey United Football Club 7610 194+15 192.71 DWWWW +0.04 -0.20 99% 2.0
3 FC Premier 3210 74+3 72.33 WDW +0.35 -0.10 56% 4.4
4 Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 6402 1712+5 122.00 WWWWL +0.24 -0.13 42% 4.7
5 Pride FC 5302 205+15 91.80 WWLLW -0.15 -0.15 96% 2.9
6 LAIFC (2) 7403 1515+0 121.71 WWLLW -0.13 +0.08 6% 6.2
7 Los Angeles SC 2 6231 79-2 91.50 WDDDL -0.72 +0.36 0% 7.8
8 FC Golden State Force (2) 6213 1416-2 71.17 LDWWL +0.06 +0.03 1% 7.1
9 City SC Los Angeles 2 6114 923-14 40.67 LDLWL +0.26 +0.08 0% 10.1
10 Autobahn SA 6105 1122-11 30.50 LLLLW +0.17 +0.07 0% 9.6
11 Bell Gardens Football Club 5014 414-10 10.20 LLLDL +0.71 -0.06 0% 10.0
12 Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club 6006 728-21 00.00 LLLLL -0.20 +0.37 0% 11.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.26 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.