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FC Premier

Elite Academy League 2 · LA South U16 · 12 teams · FC Premier (all teams)

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3rd
2-1-0 record · 3 played
2.33 points per game
+3 goal diff · 7–4
WDWlast 3
54% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.4
+0.35 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:20 PM

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FC Premier
3rd · 2.33 PPG
vs

Ocean View High School, Stadium Turf ↗ · turf

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 4–1 (expected goals 4.4 for, 1.2 against · 2.73 expected points)

Season so farFC PremierSporting So-Cal Soccer Club
Position3rd12th
Record (W-D-L)2-1-00-0-6
Points per game2.330.00
Goals for / game2.31.2
Goals against / game1.34.7
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)W D WL L L L L
Biggest win5–3 at Total Futbol Academy - OC 2—
Worst loss—0–8 at FC Golden State Force (2)
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.62-2.33
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.35-0.20

Game plan

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club concede 4.7/game; worst result 0–8 at FC Golden State Force (2).

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 at Downey United Football Club.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 89% chance; likely score 4–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club have lost 6 straight (form: LLLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Premier – Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.50 PPG
3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Win
2.50 PPG
3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Draw
2.00 PPG
4th▼ down 1 5th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 2
Loss
1.75 PPG
5th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 4–1 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
54% top 4
46% below the top 4
4.4 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 3%
  3. 3rd 13%
  4. 4th 37%
  5. 5th 32%
  6. 6th 10%
  7. 7th 3%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 19 remaining known games (max 2.91 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Culver City 3.00 (+0.67) 1st (2.47) 59 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 48 for their projection
2 Downey United Football Club 2.71 (+0.38) 2nd (2.37) 53 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 46 for their projection

How the results connect

8 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link FC Premier to Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

8 favour us
0 favour them
+4.8 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–1 1–2 3–2 0–0 2–1 1–1 2–1 5–3 3–2 4–0 2–1 5–2 6–2 6–0 4–1 FC Premier 3rd Bell Gardens Footba… 11th Downey United Footb… 2nd Total Futbol Academ… 4th LAIFC (2) 6th Los Angeles SC 2 7th Autobahn SA 10th City SC Los Angeles… 9th Sporting So-Cal Soc… 12th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

8 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 6th 12th Sep 6 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.10 · 9th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 11
01:45 PM
no score posted
Pride FC
5th · 3-0-2 · GD +15
Away
Borchard Community Park
●●●●● Very tough
18%
1–2 0.72 1.93 Upside
Sat Oct 24
12:20 PM
Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club
12th · 0-0-6 · GD -21
Home
Ocean View High School · turf
●○○○○ Favorable
89%
4–1 2.73 2.09 Bank it
Sun Oct 25
01:00 PM
Culver City
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +22
Away
Culver City High School
●●●●● Very tough
14%
1–3 0.57 1.84 Upside
Sun Nov 1
02:05 PM
Los Angeles SC 2
7th · 2-3-1 · GD -2
Home
Fullerton High School · turf
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
2–1 2.03 1.86 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
02:05 PM
FC Golden State Force (2)
8th · 2-1-3 · GD -2
Home
Fullerton High School · turf
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
2–1 2.00 1.88 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
03:05 PM
City SC Los Angeles 2
9th · 1-1-4 · GD -14
Home
Fullerton High School · turf
●○○○○ Favorable
80%
3–1 2.51 1.95 Bank it
Sun Nov 15
12:00 AM
Bell Gardens Football Club
11th · 0-1-4 · GD -10
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
2–1 2.15 1.97 Swing game
Sun Feb 28
02:15 PM
City SC Los Angeles 2
9th · 1-1-4 · GD -14
Away
Lawndale High School · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
71%
3–1 2.28 2.00 Bank it
Sat Mar 6
01:35 PM
Autobahn SA
10th · 1-0-5 · GD -11
Away
Lincoln Middle Schol
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
3–1 2.13 2.01 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
03:05 PM
Downey United Football Club
2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +15
Home
St John Bosco High School · turf
●●●●● Very tough
25%
1–1 0.97 1.93 Upside
Sun Mar 14
02:05 PM
Autobahn SA
10th · 1-0-5 · GD -11
Home
St John Bosco High School · turf
●○○○○ Favorable
76%
3–1 2.39 1.96 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM
LAIFC (2)
6th · 4-0-3 · GD +0
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
2–1 1.61 1.94 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
02:05 PM
Pride FC
5th · 3-0-2 · GD +15
Home
St John Bosco High School · turf
●●●●○ Tough
26%
1–2 0.98 1.88 Upside
Sat Apr 17
03:05 PM
Total Futbol Academy - OC 2
4th · 4-0-2 · GD +5
Home
St John Bosco High School · turf
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
2–1 1.63 1.86 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM
Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club
12th · 0-0-6 · GD -21
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
82%
3–1 2.57 1.90 Bank it
Sun Apr 25
02:05 PM
Culver City
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +22
Home
St John Bosco High School · turf
●●●●● Very tough
21%
1–2 0.80 1.85 Upside
Sat May 1
12:00 AM
Los Angeles SC 2
7th · 2-3-1 · GD -2
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
1–1 1.79 1.84 Swing game
Sun May 2
12:00 AM
FC Golden State Force (2)
8th · 2-1-3 · GD -2
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
2–1 1.70 1.84 Swing game
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
LAIFC (2)
6th · 4-0-3 · GD +0
Home
Fullerton High School · turf
●●●○○ Toss-up
57%
2–1 1.90 1.84 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Culver City 5500 264+22 153.00 WWWWW -1.00 +0.05 100% 1.5
2 Downey United Football Club 7610 194+15 192.71 DWWWW +0.04 -0.20 100% 2.0
3 FC Premier 3210 74+3 72.33 WDW +0.35 -0.10 54% 4.4
4 Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 6402 1712+5 122.00 WWWWL +0.24 -0.13 45% 4.6
5 Pride FC 5302 205+15 91.80 WWLLW -0.15 -0.15 95% 2.9
6 LAIFC (2) 7403 1515+0 121.71 WWLLW -0.13 +0.08 5% 6.2
7 Los Angeles SC 2 6231 79-2 91.50 WDDDL -0.72 +0.36 1% 7.8
8 FC Golden State Force (2) 6213 1416-2 71.17 LDWWL +0.06 +0.03 1% 7.1
9 City SC Los Angeles 2 6114 923-14 40.67 LDLWL +0.26 +0.08 0% 10.0
10 Autobahn SA 6105 1122-11 30.50 LLLLW +0.17 +0.07 0% 9.6
11 Bell Gardens Football Club 5014 414-10 10.20 LLLDL +0.71 -0.06 0% 10.0
12 Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club 6006 728-21 00.00 LLLLL -0.20 +0.37 0% 11.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.26 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.