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Reds FC

Elite Academy League · Southwest (South) U19 · 16 teams · SoCal Reds FC (all teams)

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16th
0-0-3 record · 3 played
0.00 points per game
-15 goal diff · 2–17
LLLlast 3
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 14.9
+1.29 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 04:45 PM

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Reds FC
16th · 0.00 PPG
at
City SC Southwest
9th · 1.33 PPG

Patricia Birdsall Sport Park, Field 3 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–4 (expected goals 1.3 for, 4.0 against · 0.31 expected points)

Season so farReds FCCity SC Southwest
Position16th9th
Record (W-D-L)0-0-31-1-1
Points per game0.001.33
Goals for / game0.72.3
Goals against / game5.71.7
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)L L LD W L
Biggest win—3–0 at CITY SC San Marcos
Worst loss0–8 vs ALBION SC San Diego3–4 at ALBION SC Santa Ana
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-2.15+0.35
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+1.29+0.02

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–8 vs ALBION SC San Diego.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 7%; a draw (9%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 04:45 PM at Patricia Birdsall Sport Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire sit 15th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.

    A point moves us above FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the City SC Southwest game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Reds FC – City SC Southwest) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.00 PPG
16th— holds 16th— holds 16th— holds
Win
0.75 PPG
13th▲ up 3 13th▲ up 3 15th▲ up 1
Draw
0.25 PPG
13th▲ up 3 13th▲ up 3 16th— holds
Loss
0.00 PPG
16th— holds 16th— holds 16th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–4 loss we stay 16th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
14.9 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th 1%
  12. 12th 5%
  13. 13th 10%
  14. 14th 16%
  15. 15th 27%
  16. 16th 42%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.40 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 3.00 (+3.00) 1st (2.29) 45 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
2 ALBION SC Riverside 3.00 (+3.00) 2nd (2.11) 45 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
3 BOCA OC 3.00 (+3.00) 3rd (2.06) 45 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
4 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2.25 (+2.25) 4th (2.05) 34 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
5 Inland Surf 2.00 (+2.00) 8th (1.59) 30 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
6 Total Futbol Academy - OC 2.00 (+2.00) 7th (1.65) 30 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
7 Strikers FC North 1.67 (+1.67) 10th (1.49) 26 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
8 ALBION SC San Diego 1.50 (+1.50) 5th (1.90) 23 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
9 City SC Southwest 1.33 (+1.33) 9th (1.55) 20 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
10 Elite FC 1.33 (+1.33) 11th (1.21) 20 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
11 California Football Academy 1.00 (+1.00) 6th (1.69) 15 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
12 City SC - San Diego 1.00 (+1.00) 13th (0.79) 15 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection
13 Laguna United 0.00 (+0.00) 12th (0.89) Already ahead
14 CITY SC San Marcos 0.00 (+0.00) 15th (0.54) Already ahead
15 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 0.00 (+0.00) 14th (0.59) Already ahead

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 8th 16th Sep 12 Sep 20 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.14 · 15th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
04:45 PM
City SC Southwest
9th · 1-1-1 · GD +2
Away
Patricia Birdsall Sport Park
●●●●● Very tough
7%
1–4 0.31 0.08 Upside
Sat Oct 31
05:50 PM
Strikers FC North
7th · 1-2-0 · GD +2
Away
OC Great Park
●●●●● Very tough
8%
1–4 0.33 0.13 Upside
Sat Nov 7
09:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana
4th · 3-0-1 · GD +8
Home
Orange County Great Park
●●●●● Very tough
5%
1–5 0.22 0.15 Upside
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
CITY SC San Marcos
14th · 0-0-3 · GD -9
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
41%
2–1 1.43 0.33 Upside
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM
California Football Academy
11th · 1-0-2 · GD +6
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
4%
1–5 0.16 0.31 Upside
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
Elite FC
10th · 1-1-1 · GD -4
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
22%
1–3 0.82 0.37 Upside
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
Laguna United
13th · 0-0-3 · GD -5
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
25%
2–2 0.93 0.42 Upside
Sat Apr 3
12:00 AM
Inland Surf
5th · 2-0-1 · GD +3
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
8%
1–3 0.34 0.41 Upside
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
City SC - San Diego
12th · 1-0-2 · GD -10
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
38%
2–2 1.33 0.49 Upside
Sun Apr 11
04:50 PM
BOCA OC
3rd · 3-0-0 · GD +5
Away
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●●●●● Very tough
5%
1–4 0.21 0.47 Upside
Sat May 1
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire
15th · 0-0-4 · GD -12
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
24%
2–3 0.87 0.50 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy - OC
6th · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Away
Azusa High School · turf
●●●●● Very tough
8%
1–3 0.34 0.49 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 4400 163+13 123.00 WWWW -1.14 +0.24 89% 2.3
2 ALBION SC Riverside 3300 113+8 93.00 WWW -0.84 +0.12 72% 3.5
3 BOCA OC 3300 83+5 93.00 WWW -0.19 +0.00 62% 4.0
4 ALBION SC Santa Ana 4301 1810+8 92.25 WWWL +0.43 -0.26 70% 3.7
5 Inland Surf 3201 74+3 62.00 WWL -0.42 +0.08 10% 7.7
6 Total Futbol Academy - OC 3201 64+2 62.00 WLW -0.37 +0.06 15% 7.2
7 Strikers FC North 3120 86+2 51.67 DWD -0.57 +0.14 5% 8.5
8 ALBION SC San Diego 2101 93+6 31.50 LW -0.35 -0.04 47% 4.9
9 City SC Southwest 3111 75+2 41.33 LWD +0.02 -0.04 9% 7.9
10 Elite FC 3111 59-4 41.33 DLW +0.58 -0.11 1% 10.6
11 California Football Academy 3102 137+6 31.00 WLL +0.09 -0.08 21% 6.6
12 City SC - San Diego 3102 313-10 31.00 LLW +0.14 +0.06 0% 13.1
13 Laguna United 3003 49-5 00.00 LLL +0.79 -0.13 0% 12.4
14 CITY SC San Marcos 3003 09-9 00.00 LLL +0.48 -0.01 0% 14.4
15 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 4004 820-12 00.00 LLLL +0.12 +0.10 0% 14.3
16 Reds FC 3003 217-15 00.00 LLL +1.29 -0.14 0% 14.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.41 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.