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ALBION SC Santa Ana

Elite Academy League · Southwest (South) U19 · 16 teams · ALBION SC Santa Ana (all teams)

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4th
3-0-1 record · 4 played
2.25 points per game
+8 goal diff · 18–10
WWWLlast 4
70% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.7
+0.43 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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ALBION SC Santa Ana
4th · 2.25 PPG
at
ALBION SC Riverside
2nd · 3.00 PPG

Galway Downs, #18 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–3 (expected goals 2.6 for, 3.2 against · 1.14 expected points)

Season so farALBION SC Santa AnaALBION SC Riverside
Position4th2nd
Record (W-D-L)3-0-13-0-0
Points per game2.253.00
Goals for / game4.53.7
Goals against / game2.51.0
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)L W W WW W W
Biggest win7–2 at Elite FC4–1 at Reds FC
Worst loss2–3 vs BOCA OC—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.27+1.15
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.43-0.84

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    ALBION SC Riverside score 3.7/game — well above the league's 2.4.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    ALBION SC Riverside concede only 1.0/game with 1 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 32%; a draw (17%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    ALBION SC Riverside have won 3 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at Galway Downs.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the ALBION SC Riverside game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (ALBION SC Santa Ana – ALBION SC Riverside) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.80 PPG
6th▼ down 2 7th▼ down 3 9th▼ down 5
Win
2.40 PPG
3rd▲ up 1 3rd▲ up 1 3rd▲ up 1
Draw
2.00 PPG
4th— holds 6th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 2
Loss
1.80 PPG
6th▼ down 2 7th▼ down 3 9th▼ down 5

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–3 loss we stay 4th even if every rival loses, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

14% finish 1st
70% top 4
30% below the top 4
3.7 average finish
  1. 1st 14%
  2. 2nd 19%
  3. 3rd 21%
  4. 4th 18%
  5. 5th 12%
  6. 6th 8%
  7. 7th 5%
  8. 8th 3%
  9. 9th 1%
  10. 10th 1%
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.80 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 3.00 (+0.75) 1st (2.29) 36 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
2 ALBION SC Riverside 3.00 (+0.75) 2nd (2.11) 36 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
3 BOCA OC 3.00 (+0.75) 3rd (2.06) 36 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection

How the results connect

1 chain · 4 teams

Paths of results that link ALBION SC Santa Ana to ALBION SC Riverside through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
1 favour them
-2.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–3 2–1 2–4 ALBION SC Santa Ana 4th BOCA OC 3rd Laguna United 13th ALBION SC Riverside 2nd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

1 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 8th 16th Sep 12 Sep 20 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.26 · 16th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM
ALBION SC Riverside
2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +8
Away
Galway Downs
●●●●○ Tough
32%
2–3 1.14 2.03 Upside
Sat Oct 31
06:30 PM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +13
Away
RJRSP
●●●●● Very tough
25%
2–3 0.90 1.84 Upside
Sat Nov 7
09:00 AM
Reds FC
16th · 0-0-3 · GD -15
Away
Orange County Great Park
●○○○○ Favorable
88%
5–1 2.71 1.97 Bank it
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego
8th · 1-0-1 · GD +6
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
35%
2–3 1.21 1.87 Upside
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy - OC
6th · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
2–2 1.61 1.84 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
CITY SC San Marcos
14th · 0-0-3 · GD -9
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
81%
3–1 2.53 1.91 Bank it
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
City SC - San Diego
12th · 1-0-2 · GD -10
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
89%
5–1 2.73 1.99 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire
15th · 0-0-4 · GD -12
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
90%
6–2 2.75 2.05 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
Strikers FC North
7th · 1-2-0 · GD +2
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
63%
3–2 2.04 2.05 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM
Laguna United
13th · 0-0-3 · GD -5
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
3–2 2.22 2.06 Swing game
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
Inland Surf
5th · 2-0-1 · GD +3
Home
Saint Jeanne De Lestonnac School
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
3–2 1.93 2.05 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 4400 163+13 123.00 WWWW -1.14 +0.24 89% 2.3
2 ALBION SC Riverside 3300 113+8 93.00 WWW -0.84 +0.12 72% 3.5
3 BOCA OC 3300 83+5 93.00 WWW -0.19 +0.00 62% 4.0
4 ALBION SC Santa Ana 4301 1810+8 92.25 WWWL +0.43 -0.26 70% 3.7
5 Inland Surf 3201 74+3 62.00 WWL -0.42 +0.08 10% 7.7
6 Total Futbol Academy - OC 3201 64+2 62.00 WLW -0.37 +0.06 15% 7.2
7 Strikers FC North 3120 86+2 51.67 DWD -0.57 +0.14 5% 8.5
8 ALBION SC San Diego 2101 93+6 31.50 LW -0.35 -0.04 47% 4.9
9 City SC Southwest 3111 75+2 41.33 LWD +0.02 -0.04 9% 7.9
10 Elite FC 3111 59-4 41.33 DLW +0.58 -0.11 1% 10.6
11 California Football Academy 3102 137+6 31.00 WLL +0.09 -0.08 21% 6.6
12 City SC - San Diego 3102 313-10 31.00 LLW +0.14 +0.06 0% 13.1
13 Laguna United 3003 49-5 00.00 LLL +0.79 -0.13 0% 12.4
14 CITY SC San Marcos 3003 09-9 00.00 LLL +0.48 -0.01 0% 14.4
15 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 4004 820-12 00.00 LLLL +0.12 +0.10 0% 14.3
16 Reds FC 3003 217-15 00.00 LLL +1.29 -0.14 0% 14.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.41 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.