TableChase Clubs

ALBION SC Utah

Elite Academy League · Southwest Desert U17 · 19 teams · ALBION SC Utah (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 31 minutes ago.
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6th
0-1-4 record · 5 played
0.20 points per game
-12 goal diff · 9–21
LLLDLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 18.6
+0.29 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:00 PM

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ALBION SC Utah
6th · 0.20 PPG
vs
El Paso Surf
2nd · 2.00 PPG

Trailside East Park, Trailside East Upper ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.7 for, 2.8 against · 0.85 expected points)

Season so farALBION SC UtahEl Paso Surf
Position6th2nd
Record (W-D-L)0-1-42-0-1
Points per game0.202.00
Goals for / game1.81.7
Goals against / game4.21.3
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)L D L L LW L W
Biggest win—2–1 at AZ SandSharks
Worst loss2–7 at AZ SandSharks1–2 vs AZ SandSharks
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.31+0.18
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.29+0.28

Common opponents: Inter Utah SC — we 1–5, 2–4; they 2–1. AZ SandSharks — we 2–7; they 2–1, 1–2.

Game plan

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 22%; a draw (17%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the El Paso Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (ALBION SC Utah – El Paso Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.17 PPG
6th— holds 6th— holds 6th— holds
Win
0.67 PPG
6th— holds 6th— holds 6th— holds
Draw
0.33 PPG
6th— holds 6th— holds 6th— holds
Loss
0.17 PPG
6th— holds 6th— holds 6th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 6th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
18.6 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th <1%
  14. 14th <1%
  15. 15th 1%
  16. 16th 2%
  17. 17th 4%
  18. 18th 11%
  19. 19th 80%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 1.92 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Utah Athletic 2.50 (+2.30) 1st (2.05) 32 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 El Paso Surf 2.00 (+1.80) 2nd (1.62) 25 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
3 BVBIA Arizona 1.60 (+1.40) 5th (1.42) 20 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
4 AZ SandSharks 1.50 (+1.30) 3rd (1.55) 19 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
5 Inter Utah SC 1.20 (+1.00) 16th (1.38) 15 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection

How the results connect

12 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link ALBION SC Utah to El Paso Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us
1 even
7 favour them
-1.4 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–4 1–2 2–7 2–1 1–5 1–2 3–3 2–1 1–2 3–2 3–0 3–0 2–6 ALBION SC Utah 6th Inter Utah SC 5th AZ SandSharks 4th BVBIA Arizona 3rd Utah Athletic 1st El Paso Surf 2nd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 10th 19th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 3 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.10 · 2nd hardest of 19

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
02:00 PM
El Paso Surf
2nd · 2-0-1 · GD +1
Home
Trailside East Park
●●●●● Very tough
22%
1–2 0.85 0.31 Upside
Sat Oct 31
12:00 PM
Utah Athletic
1st · 3-1-0 · GD +5
Home
Trailside East Park
●●●●● Very tough
15%
1–3 0.60 0.35 Upside
Sat Jan 30
09:00 AM
ALBION SC Las Vegas
9th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Away
Aventura Park
●●●●● Very tough
17%
1–3 0.65 0.39 Upside
Sun Jan 31
03:00 PM
BVBIA Las Vegas
10th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Away
Chaparral Highschool · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
17%
1–3 0.65 0.42 Upside
Sat Feb 27
12:00 AM
Villarreal Las Vegas Academy
19th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
25%
2–3 0.93 0.47 Upside
Sun Feb 28
12:00 AM
BVBIA Las Vegas
10th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
25%
2–3 0.93 0.51 Upside
Tue May 25
03:00 PM
Utah Athletic (North)
18th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
Trailside East Park
●●●●○ Tough
25%
2–3 0.93 0.54 Upside
Tue May 25
04:00 PM
Utah Athletic (North)
18th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Away
Murray Park Turf Fields · turf
●●●●● Very tough
17%
1–3 0.65 0.55 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Utah Athletic 4310 94+5 102.50 WDWW -0.23 -0.10 87% 2.4
2 El Paso Surf 3201 54+1 62.00 WLW +0.28 -0.03 38% 6.7
3 BVBIA Arizona 5221 1111+0 81.60 LWDDW +0.02 +0.08 15% 10.0
4 AZ SandSharks 6303 1613+3 91.50 LLWLW -0.08 +0.03 28% 7.8
5 Inter Utah SC 5203 1310+3 61.20 WLWLL -0.34 +0.11 15% 10.2
6 ALBION SC Utah 5014 921-12 10.20 LLLDL +0.29 +0.10 0% 18.6
7 ALBION SC Boulder County 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.01 ——
8 ALBION SC Denver 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.03 ——
9 ALBION SC Las Vegas 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.03 ——
10 BVBIA Las Vegas 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.03 ——
11 City SC NOCO 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.00 ——
12 Colorado Elevation FC 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.01 ——
13 Colorado Rush 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.01 ——
14 Colorado Rush - COS 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.00 ——
15 Colorado Storm 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.01 ——
16 Colorado United 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.03 ——
17 Denver Kickers Sports Club 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.00 ——
18 Utah Athletic (North) 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.00 ——
19 Villarreal Las Vegas Academy 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.00 ——

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.10 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.