TableChase Clubs

BVBIA Las Vegas

Elite Academy League · Southwest Desert U13 · 19 teams · BVBIA Las Vegas (all teams)

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16th
0-0-0 record · 0 played
0.00 points per game
+0 goal diff · 0–0
last 0
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 11.1
+0.00 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 21, 09:00 AM

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BVBIA Las Vegas
16th · 0.00 PPG
vs
ALBION SC Las Vegas
15th · 0.00 PPG

Chaparral Highschool, Chaparral Stadium ↗ · turf?

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 3–2 (expected goals 3.1 for, 2.7 against · 1.59 expected points)

Season so farBVBIA Las VegasALBION SC Las Vegas
Position16th15th
Record (W-D-L)0-0-00-0-0
Points per game0.000.00
Goals for / game0.00.0
Goals against / game0.00.0
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)——
Biggest win——
Worst loss——
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.00+0.00
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.00+0.00

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    ALBION SC Las Vegas average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.8); blanked in 0 of 0.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 48% / draw 17% / loss 36%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    ALBION SC Las Vegas sit 15th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.

    A point moves us above ALBION SC Las Vegas on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the ALBION SC Las Vegas game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (BVBIA Las Vegas – ALBION SC Las Vegas) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Nov 16 – Sun Nov 22); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 3.00 PPG
4th▲ up 12 4th▲ up 12 4th▲ up 12
Win
3.00 PPG
4th▲ up 12 4th▲ up 12 4th▲ up 12
Draw
1.00 PPG
12th▲ up 4 12th▲ up 4 13th▲ up 3
Loss
0.00 PPG
17th▼ down 1 17th▼ down 1 18th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–2 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
11.1 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th 1%
  6. 6th 2%
  7. 7th 6%
  8. 8th 7%
  9. 9th 11%
  10. 10th 15%
  11. 11th 15%
  12. 12th 14%
  13. 13th 11%
  14. 14th 8%
  15. 15th 6%
  16. 16th 4%
  17. 17th 1%
  18. 18th <1%
  19. 19th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 15 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Colorado United 3.00 (+3.00) 3rd (2.51) Win next game
2 El Paso Surf 3.00 (+3.00) 1st (2.73) Win next game
3 Utah Athletic 3.00 (+3.00) 2nd (2.62) Win next game
4 City SC NOCO 2.50 (+2.50) 4th (2.31) A point next game
5 Colorado Storm 2.25 (+2.25) 5th (2.06) A point next game
6 Denver Kickers Sports Club 2.25 (+2.25) 6th (1.84) A point next game
7 Utah Athletic (North) 1.50 (+1.50) 9th (1.50) A point next game
8 ALBION SC Boulder County 1.20 (+1.20) 8th (1.62) A point next game
9 ALBION SC Utah 1.20 (+1.20) 13th (1.10) A point next game
10 Colorado Rush - COS 1.20 (+1.20) 12th (1.20) A point next game
11 AZ SandSharks 1.00 (+1.00) 14th (1.04) A point next game
12 ALBION SC Denver 0.75 (+0.75) 15th (0.85) Already ahead
13 Inter Utah SC 0.75 (+0.75) 16th (0.73) Already ahead
14 BVBIA Arizona 0.60 (+0.60) 17th (0.68) Already ahead
15 ALBION SC Las Vegas 0.00 (+0.00) 10th (1.32) Already ahead

Position over the season

13 game days

Not enough game days yet to draw a line.

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.53 · 1st hardest of 19

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Nov 21
09:00 AM
ALBION SC Las Vegas
15th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
Chaparral Highschool · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
3–2 1.59 1.59 Swing game
Sat Dec 5
09:00 AM
ALBION SC Las Vegas
15th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Away
Aventura Park
●●●●○ Tough
36%
2–3 1.24 1.42 Upside
Sun Jan 24
09:00 AM
Utah Athletic
3rd · 4-0-0 · GD +21
Home
Chaparral Highschool · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
12%
1–4 0.47 1.10 Upside
Sat Jan 30
09:00 AM
Inter Utah SC
13th · 1-0-3 · GD -17
Home
Chaparral Highschool · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
79%
4–1 2.47 1.44 Bank it
Sun Jan 31
09:00 AM
ALBION SC Utah
9th · 2-0-3 · GD -3
Home
Chaparral Highschool · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
3–2 1.83 1.52 Swing game
Sun Feb 7
09:00 AM
City SC NOCO
4th · 5-0-1 · GD +23
Home
Chaparral Highschool · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
14%
1–3 0.56 1.36 Upside
Sat Feb 27
12:00 AM
Utah Athletic
3rd · 4-0-0 · GD +21
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
7%
1–4 0.29 1.21 Upside
Sun Feb 28
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Utah
9th · 2-0-3 · GD -3
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%
2–2 1.48 1.24 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
09:00 AM
Villarreal Las Vegas Academy
17th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
Chaparral Highschool · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
3–2 1.59 1.28 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
El Paso Surf
2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +27
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
4%
1–5 0.17 1.17 Upside
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM
AZ SandSharks
11th · 2-0-4 · GD -12
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%
3–2 1.80 1.23 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM
Villarreal Las Vegas Academy
17th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
36%
2–3 1.24 1.23 Upside
Sat Apr 10
09:00 AM
BVBIA Arizona
14th · 1-0-4 · GD -13
Home
Chaparral Highschool · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
76%
3–1 2.42 1.32 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
09:00 AM
El Paso Surf
2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +27
Home
Chaparral Highschool · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
7%
1–4 0.29 1.25 Upside
Sun May 9
09:30 AM
Colorado Rush - COS
10th · 2-0-3 · GD -4
Home
Chaparral Highschool · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%
2–2 1.81 1.28 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Colorado United 5500 356+29 153.00 WWWWW -1.00 -0.13 96% 2.7
2 El Paso Surf 4400 281+27 123.00 WWWW -1.17 -0.42 100% 1.6
3 Utah Athletic 4400 232+21 123.00 WWWW -1.34 +0.03 97% 2.2
4 City SC NOCO 6501 296+23 152.50 WWWWW -1.05 -0.13 79% 3.9
5 Colorado Storm 4301 145+9 92.25 WWWL +0.56 -0.46 20% 5.3
6 Denver Kickers Sports Club 4301 157+8 92.25 WWLW -0.27 -0.14 4% 6.5
7 Utah Athletic (North) 2101 58-3 31.50 WL +1.57 -0.32 1% 9.2
8 ALBION SC Boulder County 5203 1611+5 61.20 LWLLW +0.27 -0.16 0% 8.1
9 ALBION SC Utah 5203 1215-3 61.20 LWLWL -0.50 +0.45 0% 12.5
10 Colorado Rush - COS 5203 1014-4 61.20 WLLLW +0.33 -0.04 0% 11.6
11 AZ SandSharks 6204 1022-12 61.00 LLLLW +0.90 -0.05 0% 13.1
12 ALBION SC Denver 4103 412-8 30.75 LLWL -0.61 +0.28 0% 14.9
13 Inter Utah SC 4103 522-17 30.75 LLWL +0.91 -0.15 0% 15.6
14 BVBIA Arizona 5104 417-13 30.60 LWLLL -0.45 +0.10 0% 16.2
15 ALBION SC Las Vegas 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.42 ——
16 BVBIA Las Vegas 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.53 ——
17 Villarreal Las Vegas Academy 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.36 ——
18 Colorado Elevation FC 5005 533-28 00.00 LLLLL +1.54 -0.12 0% 17.5
19 Colorado Rush 4004 034-34 00.00 LLLL +1.19 +0.39 0% 18.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.83 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.