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Total Futbol Academy

Elite Academy League · Southwest U12 · 15 teams · Total Futbol Academy (all teams)

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10th
0-1-2 record · 3 played
0.33 points per game
-3 goal diff · 3–6
LDLlast 3
1% chance of top 4 · expected finish 9.3
+1.54 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:30 AM

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Total Futbol Academy
10th · 0.33 PPG
at
Los Angeles SC
2nd · 3.00 PPG

Fremont Park, Fremont Park (9v9) ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.4 for, 2.3 against · 0.87 expected points)

Season so farTotal Futbol AcademyLos Angeles SC
Position10th2nd
Record (W-D-L)0-1-21-0-0
Points per game0.333.00
Goals for / game1.03.0
Goals against / game2.00.0
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)L D LW
Biggest win—3–0 at ALBION SC Riverside
Worst loss0–2 vs ALBION SC Santa Monica—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.23+0.54
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+1.54-2.03

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 vs ALBION SC Santa Monica.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 22%; a draw (20%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:30 AM at Fremont Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:30 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    FC Golden State Force sit 9th on 0.67 PPG; we are on 0.33.

    A point moves us above FC Golden State Force on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Los Angeles SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Total Futbol Academy – Los Angeles SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.25 PPG
11th▼ down 1 12th▼ down 2 15th▼ down 5
Win
1.00 PPG
9th▲ up 1 10th— holds 11th▼ down 1
Draw
0.50 PPG
10th— holds 10th— holds 15th▼ down 5
Loss
0.25 PPG
11th▼ down 1 12th▼ down 2 15th▼ down 5

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 10th even if every rival loses, and as low as 15th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
1% top 4
99% below the top 4
9.3 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th 2%
  6. 6th 6%
  7. 7th 9%
  8. 8th 17%
  9. 9th 21%
  10. 10th 18%
  11. 11th 13%
  12. 12th 9%
  13. 13th 4%
  14. 14th 1%
  15. 15th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.43 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 ALBION SC Santa Monica 3.00 (+2.67) 2nd (2.39) 41 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
2 Los Angeles SC 3.00 (+2.67) 5th (1.74) 41 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
3 Laguna United 2.50 (+2.17) 4th (2.04) 34 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
4 Reds FC 2.25 (+1.92) 1st (2.42) 31 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
5 City SC Los Angeles 2.25 (+1.92) 7th (1.66) 31 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
6 ALBION SC San Diego 2.14 (+1.81) 3rd (2.27) 29 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
7 Chula Vista FC 1.67 (+1.34) 8th (1.48) 23 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
8 City SC - San Diego 1.40 (+1.07) 6th (1.70) 19 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
9 FC Golden State Force 0.67 (+0.34) 10th (1.09) A point next game

How the results connect

1 chain · 4 teams

Paths of results that link Total Futbol Academy to Los Angeles SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
1 even
0 favour them
+0.0 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–1 3–0 0–3 Total Futbol Academy 10th Laguna United 3rd ALBION SC Riverside 14th Los Angeles SC 2nd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

1 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

1st 8th 15th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 10 Oct 17

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.51 · 15th hardest of 15

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:30 AM
Los Angeles SC
2nd · 1-0-0 · GD +3
Away
Fremont Park
●●●●● Very tough
22%
1–2 0.87 0.47 Upside
Sat Nov 7
09:00 AM
City SC - San Diego
8th · 2-1-2 · GD +6
Home
Azusa HS
●●●●○ Tough
28%
1–2 1.04 0.58 Upside
Sat Nov 14
10:30 AM
Reds FC
4th · 3-0-1 · GD +19
Away
Brywood Park
●●●●● Very tough
7%
1–3 0.29 0.53 Upside
Sat Nov 21
10:30 AM
LA Surf Futures
13th · 0-0-2 · GD -8
Away
citrus college
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
2–1 1.78 0.71 Swing game
Sat Dec 5
12:00 AM
FC Golden State Force
9th · 0-2-1 · GD -2
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
1–1 1.58 0.82 Swing game
Sat Dec 12
04:30 PM
City SC Southwest
15th · 0-0-3 · GD -31
Away
Los Alamos Hills Sport Park · turf
●○○○○ Favorable
86%
4–1 2.66 1.03 Bank it
Sat Jan 16
12:00 AM
Chula Vista FC
7th · 1-2-0 · GD +1
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
37%
1–1 1.34 1.06 Upside
Sat Jan 23
09:00 AM
ALBION SC Los Angeles
11th · 0-1-2 · GD -9
Away
Bell Gardens Sports Center - John Anson Ford Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
2–1 1.63 1.11 Swing game
Sat Jan 30
12:00 AM
City SC Los Angeles
5th · 3-0-1 · GD +3
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
37%
2–2 1.30 1.13 Upside
Sat Feb 6
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Riverside
14th · 0-0-3 · GD -13
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
2–1 2.12 1.20 Swing game
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
Oaks FC
12th · 0-0-2 · GD -4
Home
Azusa HS
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
2–1 1.71 1.24 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 ALBION SC Santa Monica 3300 111+10 93.00 WWW +0.37 -0.34 94% 2.3
2 Los Angeles SC 1100 30+3 33.00 W -2.03 +0.02 22% 6.0
3 Laguna United 4310 72+5 102.50 WDWW +0.15 -0.27 62% 4.2
4 Reds FC 4301 234+19 92.25 WWLW -0.46 -0.22 97% 2.0
5 City SC Los Angeles 4301 1512+3 92.25 WLWW -0.76 +0.15 12% 6.5
6 ALBION SC San Diego 7502 3512+23 152.14 LWWLW -0.14 -0.37 94% 2.7
7 Chula Vista FC 3120 54+1 51.67 DWD -0.27 -0.03 4% 7.6
8 City SC - San Diego 5212 159+6 71.40 LWLD +0.27 -0.30 14% 6.2
9 FC Golden State Force 3021 46-2 20.67 DDL -0.23 -0.01 0% 10.2
10 Total Futbol Academy 3012 36-3 10.33 LDL +1.54 -0.51 1% 9.3
11 ALBION SC Los Angeles 3012 514-9 10.33 LD +1.03 -0.19 0% 11.4
12 Oaks FC 2002 37-4 00.00 LL +1.34 -0.26 0% 10.7
13 LA Surf Futures 2002 19-8 00.00 LL +0.87 -0.14 0% 12.3
14 ALBION SC Riverside 3003 013-13 00.00 LLL +0.67 -0.11 0% 13.6
15 City SC Southwest 3003 031-31 00.00 LLL +1.71 -0.18 0% 14.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.30 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.