FC Golden State Force
Elite Academy League · Southwest U12 · 15 teams · FC Golden State Force (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:15 AM
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.8 for, 1.1 against · 2.31 expected points)
| Season so far | FC Golden State Force | ALBION SC Riverside |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 9th | 14th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-2-1 | 0-0-3 |
| Points per game | 0.67 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 1.3 | 0.0 |
| Goals against / game | 2.0 | 4.3 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 3 |
| Form (recent first) | L D D | L L L |
| Biggest win | — | — |
| Worst loss | 1–3 at City SC Los Angeles | 0–7 at City SC - San Diego |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.36 | -2.03 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.23 | +0.67 |
Game plan
-
They struggle to score
ALBION SC Riverside average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.3); blanked in 3 of 3.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
They leak goals — be greedy
ALBION SC Riverside concede 4.3/game; worst result 0–7 at City SC - San Diego.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
-
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 72% chance; likely score 2–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
-
Confidence is low on their side
ALBION SC Riverside have lost 3 straight (form: LLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the ALBION SC Riverside game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Golden State Force – ALBION SC Riverside) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.25 PPG |
9th— holds | 9th— holds | 10th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.25 PPG |
9th— holds | 9th— holds | 10th▼ down 1 |
| Draw 0.75 PPG |
9th— holds | 9th— holds | 13th▼ down 4 |
| Loss 0.50 PPG |
10th▼ down 1 | 10th▼ down 1 | 15th▼ down 6 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 7th if every rival drops points, and as low as 10th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th <1%
- 5th 1%
- 6th 2%
- 7th 3%
- 8th 9%
- 9th 18%
- 10th 22%
- 11th 20%
- 12th 15%
- 13th 8%
- 14th 2%
- 15th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ALBION SC Santa Monica | 3.00 (+2.33) | 2nd (2.39) | 40 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection |
| 2 | Los Angeles SC | 3.00 (+2.33) | 5th (1.74) | 40 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 3 | Laguna United | 2.50 (+1.83) | 4th (2.04) | 33 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 4 | Reds FC | 2.25 (+1.58) | 1st (2.42) | 30 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection |
| 5 | City SC Los Angeles | 2.25 (+1.58) | 7th (1.66) | 30 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 6 | ALBION SC San Diego | 2.14 (+1.47) | 3rd (2.27) | 28 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection |
| 7 | Chula Vista FC | 1.67 (+1.00) | 8th (1.48) | 22 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 8 | City SC - San Diego | 1.40 (+0.73) | 6th (1.70) | 18 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
How the results connect
1 chain · 4 teams
Paths of results that link FC Golden State Force to ALBION SC Riverside through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.01 · 3rd hardest of 15
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 10:15 AM |
ALBION SC Riverside 14th · 0-0-3 · GD -13 |
Home Azusa High School |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
2–1 | 2.31 | 1.08 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 7 02:30 PM |
Oaks FC 12th · 0-0-2 · GD -4 |
Away Wildflower Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
1–1 | 1.35 | 1.13 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 10:15 AM |
City SC Southwest 15th · 0-0-3 · GD -31 |
Home Azusa High School |
●○○○○ Favorable | 91% |
4–1 | 2.78 | 1.41 | Bank it |
| Sat Dec 5 12:00 AM |
Total Futbol Academy 10th · 0-1-2 · GD -3 |
Away TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–1 | 1.19 | 1.38 | Upside |
| Sat Dec 12 10:15 AM |
ALBION SC Santa Monica 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +10 |
Home Azusa High School |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–2 | 0.57 | 1.27 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 9 12:00 AM |
ALBION SC San Diego 6th · 5-0-2 · GD +23 |
Home TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
1–3 | 0.50 | 1.19 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 16 12:00 AM |
Los Angeles SC 2nd · 1-0-0 · GD +3 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
1–2 | 0.81 | 1.15 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 23 12:00 AM |
City SC - San Diego 8th · 2-1-2 · GD +6 |
Home TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
1–2 | 0.98 | 1.13 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 30 12:00 AM |
Laguna United 3rd · 3-1-0 · GD +5 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 17% |
0–2 | 0.71 | 1.10 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 6 12:00 AM |
Reds FC 4th · 3-0-1 · GD +19 |
Home TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
1–3 | 0.40 | 1.05 | Upside |
| Tue May 25 12:00 AM |
LA Surf Futures 13th · 0-0-2 · GD -8 |
Away citrus college |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
2–1 | 1.72 | 1.09 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | ALBION SC Santa Monica | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | +10 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | +0.37 | -0.34 | 95% | 2.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at ALBION SC San Diego · Sat Nov 7 vs Laguna United · Sat Nov 14 vs ALBION SC Riverside See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Los Angeles SC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 3 | 3.00 | W | -2.03 | +0.02 | 22% | 6.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at ALBION SC Los Angeles · Sat Oct 24 vs Total Futbol Academy · Sun Oct 25 at ALBION SC San Diego See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Laguna United | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 10 | 2.50 | WDWW | +0.15 | -0.27 | 61% | 4.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at LA Surf Futures · Sat Nov 7 at ALBION SC Santa Monica · Sat Nov 14 vs Chula Vista FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Reds FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 4 | +19 | 9 | 2.25 | WWLW | -0.46 | -0.22 | 97% | 2.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at City SC - San Diego · Sun Oct 25 at City SC Los Angeles · Sat Nov 14 vs Total Futbol Academy See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | City SC Los Angeles | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 9 | 2.25 | WLWW | -0.76 | +0.15 | 13% | 6.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Reds FC · Sat Nov 14 at Los Angeles SC · Sun Nov 22 vs ALBION SC Los Angeles See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | ALBION SC San Diego | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 35 | 12 | +23 | 15 | 2.14 | LWWLW | -0.14 | -0.37 | 93% | 2.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs ALBION SC Santa Monica · Sun Oct 25 vs Los Angeles SC · Sat Oct 31 vs ALBION SC Riverside See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Chula Vista FC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 5 | 1.67 | DWD | -0.27 | -0.03 | 4% | 7.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at City SC Southwest · Sat Nov 7 vs ALBION SC San Diego · Sat Nov 14 at Laguna United See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | City SC - San Diego | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 7 | 1.40 | LWLD | +0.27 | -0.30 | 13% | 6.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Reds FC · Sun Oct 25 vs LA Surf Futures · Sat Oct 31 vs City SC Southwest See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | FC Golden State Force | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 2 | 0.67 | DDL | -0.23 | -0.01 | 0% | 10.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs ALBION SC Riverside · Sat Nov 7 at Oaks FC · Sat Nov 14 vs City SC Southwest See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Total Futbol Academy | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 1 | 0.33 | LDL | +1.54 | -0.51 | 1% | 9.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Los Angeles SC · Sat Nov 7 vs City SC - San Diego · Sat Nov 14 at Reds FC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | ALBION SC Los Angeles | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 1 | 0.33 | LD | +1.03 | -0.19 | 0% | 11.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Los Angeles SC · Sat Oct 24 vs Oaks FC · Sat Nov 7 vs City SC Southwest See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Oaks FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 0 | 0.00 | LL | +1.34 | -0.26 | 0% | 10.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at ALBION SC Los Angeles · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Golden State Force · Sat Nov 14 at LA Surf Futures See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | LA Surf Futures | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 0 | 0.00 | LL | +0.87 | -0.14 | 0% | 12.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Laguna United · Sun Oct 25 at City SC - San Diego · Sun Nov 1 vs ALBION SC San Diego See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | ALBION SC Riverside | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 13 | -13 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.67 | -0.11 | 0% | 13.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Golden State Force · Sat Oct 31 at ALBION SC San Diego · Sat Nov 7 vs LA Surf Futures See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | City SC Southwest | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 31 | -31 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +1.71 | -0.18 | 0% | 14.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Chula Vista FC · Sat Oct 31 at City SC - San Diego · Sat Nov 7 at ALBION SC Los Angeles See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.30 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.