LA Surf Futures
Elite Academy League · Southwest U12 · 15 teams · LA Surf Futures (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:30 AM
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.0 for, 2.5 against · 0.56 expected points)
| Season so far | LA Surf Futures | Laguna United |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 13th | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-2 | 3-1-0 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 2.50 |
| Goals for / game | 0.5 | 1.8 |
| Goals against / game | 4.5 | 0.5 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L L | W W D W |
| Biggest win | — | 3–0 at ALBION SC Riverside |
| Worst loss | 0–7 at ALBION SC Santa Monica | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.37 | +0.73 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.87 | +0.15 |
Game plan
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Hard to break down
Laguna United concede only 0.5/game with 2 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–7 at ALBION SC Santa Monica.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 13%; a draw (17%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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What a win does
Oaks FC sit 12th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above Oaks FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Laguna United game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (LA Surf Futures – Laguna United) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.00 PPG |
13th— holds | 13th— holds | 15th▼ down 2 |
| Win 1.00 PPG |
9th▲ up 4 | 10th▲ up 3 | 12th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 0.33 PPG |
11th▲ up 2 | 12th▲ up 1 | 15th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
13th— holds | 13th— holds | 15th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 13th even if every rival loses, and as low as 15th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th <1%
- 6th <1%
- 7th <1%
- 8th 1%
- 9th 3%
- 10th 7%
- 11th 12%
- 12th 22%
- 13th 33%
- 14th 18%
- 15th 2%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.57 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ALBION SC Santa Monica | 3.00 (+3.00) | 2nd (2.39) | 42 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection |
| 2 | Los Angeles SC | 3.00 (+3.00) | 5th (1.74) | 42 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
| 3 | Laguna United | 2.50 (+2.50) | 4th (2.04) | 35 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection |
| 4 | Reds FC | 2.25 (+2.25) | 1st (2.42) | 32 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection |
| 5 | City SC Los Angeles | 2.25 (+2.25) | 7th (1.66) | 32 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
| 6 | ALBION SC San Diego | 2.14 (+2.14) | 3rd (2.27) | 30 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection |
| 7 | Chula Vista FC | 1.67 (+1.67) | 8th (1.48) | 24 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 8 | City SC - San Diego | 1.40 (+1.40) | 6th (1.70) | 20 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
| 9 | FC Golden State Force | 0.67 (+0.67) | 10th (1.09) | A point next game |
| 10 | Total Futbol Academy | 0.33 (+0.33) | 9th (1.24) | Already ahead |
| 11 | ALBION SC Los Angeles | 0.33 (+0.33) | 12th (0.91) | Already ahead |
| 12 | Oaks FC | 0.00 (+0.00) | 11th (1.03) | Already ahead |
How the results connect
2 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link LA Surf Futures to Laguna United through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.14 · 6th hardest of 15
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 10:30 AM |
Laguna United 3rd · 3-1-0 · GD +5 |
Home citrus college |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
1–2 | 0.56 | 0.19 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 04:00 PM |
City SC - San Diego 8th · 2-1-2 · GD +6 |
Away Alga Norte Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
1–3 | 0.36 | 0.23 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 01:30 PM |
ALBION SC San Diego 6th · 5-0-2 · GD +23 |
Home Citrus College |
●●●●● Very tough | 5% |
1–5 | 0.20 | 0.22 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 09:30 AM |
ALBION SC Riverside 14th · 0-0-3 · GD -13 |
Away SilverLakes |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
2–1 | 1.68 | 0.47 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 14 10:30 AM |
Oaks FC 12th · 0-0-2 · GD -4 |
Home citrus college |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
2–2 | 1.17 | 0.57 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 21 10:30 AM |
Total Futbol Academy 10th · 0-1-2 · GD -3 |
Home citrus college |
●●●●○ Tough | 27% |
1–2 | 1.02 | 0.62 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 22 10:30 AM |
Reds FC 4th · 3-0-1 · GD +19 |
Away Brywood Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
1–5 | 0.08 | 0.56 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 9 12:00 AM |
City SC Southwest 15th · 0-0-3 · GD -31 |
Away TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 75% |
3–1 | 2.37 | 0.74 | Bank it |
| Sat Jan 16 12:00 AM |
City SC Los Angeles 5th · 3-0-1 · GD +3 |
Home TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
2–3 | 0.71 | 0.74 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 23 12:00 AM |
Los Angeles SC 2nd · 1-0-0 · GD +3 |
Away TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 10% |
1–3 | 0.43 | 0.71 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 6 09:00 AM |
ALBION SC Los Angeles 11th · 0-1-2 · GD -9 |
Away Bell Gardens Sports Center - John Anson Ford Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 29% |
2–2 | 1.06 | 0.74 | Upside |
| Tue May 25 12:00 AM |
FC Golden State Force 9th · 0-2-1 · GD -2 |
Home citrus college |
●●●●○ Tough | 29% |
1–2 | 1.08 | 0.77 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | ALBION SC Santa Monica | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | +10 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | +0.37 | -0.34 | 95% | 2.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at ALBION SC San Diego · Sat Nov 7 vs Laguna United · Sat Nov 14 vs ALBION SC Riverside See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Los Angeles SC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 3 | 3.00 | W | -2.03 | +0.02 | 21% | 6.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at ALBION SC Los Angeles · Sat Oct 24 vs Total Futbol Academy · Sun Oct 25 at ALBION SC San Diego See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Laguna United | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 10 | 2.50 | WDWW | +0.15 | -0.27 | 64% | 4.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at LA Surf Futures · Sat Nov 7 at ALBION SC Santa Monica · Sat Nov 14 vs Chula Vista FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Reds FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 4 | +19 | 9 | 2.25 | WWLW | -0.46 | -0.22 | 97% | 1.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at City SC - San Diego · Sun Oct 25 at City SC Los Angeles · Sat Nov 14 vs Total Futbol Academy See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | City SC Los Angeles | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 9 | 2.25 | WLWW | -0.76 | +0.15 | 11% | 6.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Reds FC · Sat Nov 14 at Los Angeles SC · Sun Nov 22 vs ALBION SC Los Angeles See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | ALBION SC San Diego | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 35 | 12 | +23 | 15 | 2.14 | LWWLW | -0.14 | -0.37 | 95% | 2.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs ALBION SC Santa Monica · Sun Oct 25 vs Los Angeles SC · Sat Oct 31 vs ALBION SC Riverside See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Chula Vista FC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 5 | 1.67 | DWD | -0.27 | -0.03 | 4% | 7.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at City SC Southwest · Sat Nov 7 vs ALBION SC San Diego · Sat Nov 14 at Laguna United See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | City SC - San Diego | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 7 | 1.40 | LWLD | +0.27 | -0.30 | 13% | 6.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Reds FC · Sun Oct 25 vs LA Surf Futures · Sat Oct 31 vs City SC Southwest See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | FC Golden State Force | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 2 | 0.67 | DDL | -0.23 | -0.01 | 0% | 10.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs ALBION SC Riverside · Sat Nov 7 at Oaks FC · Sat Nov 14 vs City SC Southwest See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Total Futbol Academy | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 1 | 0.33 | LDL | +1.54 | -0.51 | 1% | 9.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Los Angeles SC · Sat Nov 7 vs City SC - San Diego · Sat Nov 14 at Reds FC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | ALBION SC Los Angeles | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 1 | 0.33 | LD | +1.03 | -0.19 | 0% | 11.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Los Angeles SC · Sat Oct 24 vs Oaks FC · Sat Nov 7 vs City SC Southwest See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Oaks FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 0 | 0.00 | LL | +1.34 | -0.26 | 0% | 10.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at ALBION SC Los Angeles · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Golden State Force · Sat Nov 14 at LA Surf Futures See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | LA Surf Futures | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 0 | 0.00 | LL | +0.87 | -0.14 | 0% | 12.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Laguna United · Sun Oct 25 at City SC - San Diego · Sun Nov 1 vs ALBION SC San Diego See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | ALBION SC Riverside | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 13 | -13 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.67 | -0.11 | 0% | 13.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Golden State Force · Sat Oct 31 at ALBION SC San Diego · Sat Nov 7 vs LA Surf Futures See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | City SC Southwest | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 31 | -31 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +1.71 | -0.18 | 0% | 14.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Chula Vista FC · Sat Oct 31 at City SC - San Diego · Sat Nov 7 at ALBION SC Los Angeles See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.30 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.