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City SC Southwest

Elite Academy League · Southwest U12 · 15 teams · City SC Southwest (all teams)

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15th
0-0-3 record · 3 played
0.00 points per game
-31 goal diff · 0–31
LLLlast 3
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 14.8
+1.71 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 04:30 PM

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City SC Southwest
15th · 0.00 PPG
vs
Chula Vista FC
7th · 1.67 PPG

Los Alamos Hills Sport Park, Field 2, 9v9 turf ↗ · turf

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–4 (expected goals 1.1 for, 4.5 against · 0.18 expected points)

Season so farCity SC SouthwestChula Vista FC
Position15th7th
Record (W-D-L)0-0-31-2-0
Points per game0.001.67
Goals for / game0.01.7
Goals against / game10.31.3
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless30
Form (recent first)L L LD W D
Biggest win—2–1 at LA Surf Futures
Worst loss0–13 at ALBION SC San Diego—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-4.27+0.10
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+1.71-0.27

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–8 vs City SC Los Angeles, 0–13 at ALBION SC San Diego, 0–10 at Reds FC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 4%; a draw (6%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    ALBION SC Riverside sit 14th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.

    A point moves us above ALBION SC Riverside on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Chula Vista FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (City SC Southwest – Chula Vista FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.00 PPG
15th— holds 15th— holds 15th— holds
Win
0.75 PPG
9th▲ up 6 10th▲ up 5 15th— holds
Draw
0.25 PPG
12th▲ up 3 13th▲ up 2 15th— holds
Loss
0.00 PPG
15th— holds 15th— holds 15th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–4 loss we stay 15th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
14.8 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th 3%
  14. 14th 12%
  15. 15th 85%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.36 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 ALBION SC Santa Monica 3.00 (+3.00) 2nd (2.39) 42 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Los Angeles SC 3.00 (+3.00) 5th (1.74) 42 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
3 Laguna United 2.50 (+2.50) 4th (2.04) 35 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
4 Reds FC 2.25 (+2.25) 1st (2.42) 32 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 City SC Los Angeles 2.25 (+2.25) 7th (1.66) 32 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
6 ALBION SC San Diego 2.14 (+2.14) 3rd (2.27) 30 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
7 Chula Vista FC 1.67 (+1.67) 8th (1.48) 24 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
8 City SC - San Diego 1.40 (+1.40) 6th (1.70) 20 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
9 FC Golden State Force 0.67 (+0.67) 10th (1.09) A point next game
10 Total Futbol Academy 0.33 (+0.33) 9th (1.24) A point next game
11 ALBION SC Los Angeles 0.33 (+0.33) 12th (0.91) A point next game
12 Oaks FC 0.00 (+0.00) 11th (1.03) Already ahead
13 LA Surf Futures 0.00 (+0.00) 13th (0.77) Already ahead
14 ALBION SC Riverside 0.00 (+0.00) 14th (0.50) Already ahead

How the results connect

2 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link City SC Southwest to Chula Vista FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
2 favour them
-8.5 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–8 3–1 2–2 0–13 4–2 1–1 City SC Southwest 15th City SC Los Angeles 5th ALBION SC San Diego 6th FC Golden State For… 9th City SC - San Diego 8th Chula Vista FC 7th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

2 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

1st 8th 15th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 10 Oct 17

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.18 · 7th hardest of 15

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
04:30 PM
Chula Vista FC
7th · 1-2-0 · GD +1
Home
Los Alamos Hills Sport Park · turf
●●●●● Very tough
4%
1–4 0.18 0.04 Upside
Sat Oct 31
08:30 AM
City SC - San Diego
8th · 2-1-2 · GD +6
Away
Alga Norte Park
●●●●● Very tough
1%
0–6 0.04 0.04 Upside
Sat Nov 7
11:30 AM
ALBION SC Los Angeles
11th · 0-1-2 · GD -9
Away
Bell Gardens Sports Center - John Anson Ford Park
●●●●● Very tough
5%
1–5 0.22 0.07 Upside
Sat Nov 14
10:15 AM
FC Golden State Force
9th · 0-2-1 · GD -2
Away
Azusa High School
●●●●● Very tough
4%
1–4 0.16 0.08 Upside
Sat Nov 21
04:30 PM
Oaks FC
12th · 0-0-2 · GD -4
Home
Los Alamos Hills Sport Park · turf
●●●●● Very tough
7%
1–4 0.29 0.11 Upside
Sat Dec 5
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Riverside
14th · 0-0-3 · GD -13
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
17%
1–3 0.64 0.17 Upside
Sat Dec 12
04:30 PM
Total Futbol Academy
10th · 0-1-2 · GD -3
Home
Los Alamos Hills Sport Park · turf
●●●●● Very tough
6%
1–4 0.25 0.18 Upside
Sat Jan 9
12:00 AM
LA Surf Futures
13th · 0-0-2 · GD -8
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
13%
1–3 0.51 0.21 Upside
Sat Jan 23
12:00 AM
Laguna United
3rd · 3-1-0 · GD +5
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
2%
0–4 0.10 0.20 Upside
Sat Jan 30
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Monica
1st · 3-0-0 · GD +10
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
0%
0–7 0.01 0.18 Upside
Sat Feb 6
12:00 AM
Los Angeles SC
2nd · 1-0-0 · GD +3
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
2%
1–5 0.10 0.18 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 ALBION SC Santa Monica 3300 111+10 93.00 WWW +0.37 -0.34 95% 2.3
2 Los Angeles SC 1100 30+3 33.00 W -2.03 +0.02 21% 6.0
3 Laguna United 4310 72+5 102.50 WDWW +0.15 -0.27 64% 4.2
4 Reds FC 4301 234+19 92.25 WWLW -0.46 -0.22 97% 1.9
5 City SC Los Angeles 4301 1512+3 92.25 WLWW -0.76 +0.15 11% 6.6
6 ALBION SC San Diego 7502 3512+23 152.14 LWWLW -0.14 -0.37 95% 2.6
7 Chula Vista FC 3120 54+1 51.67 DWD -0.27 -0.03 4% 7.7
8 City SC - San Diego 5212 159+6 71.40 LWLD +0.27 -0.30 13% 6.3
9 FC Golden State Force 3021 46-2 20.67 DDL -0.23 -0.01 0% 10.2
10 Total Futbol Academy 3012 36-3 10.33 LDL +1.54 -0.51 1% 9.2
11 ALBION SC Los Angeles 3012 514-9 10.33 LD +1.03 -0.19 0% 11.4
12 Oaks FC 2002 37-4 00.00 LL +1.34 -0.26 0% 10.8
13 LA Surf Futures 2002 19-8 00.00 LL +0.87 -0.14 0% 12.3
14 ALBION SC Riverside 3003 013-13 00.00 LLL +0.67 -0.11 0% 13.6
15 City SC Southwest 3003 031-31 00.00 LLL +1.71 -0.18 0% 14.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.30 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.