Sonoma Valley United
Elite Academy League · Nor Cal U15 · 7 teams · Sonoma Valley United (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 12:00 PM
Adele Harrison Middle School, Adele Harrison Middle School ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 4–1 (expected goals 4.0 for, 1.4 against · 2.55 expected points)
| Season so far | Sonoma Valley United | Rocklin FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-0-0 | 1-1-0 |
| Points per game | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / game | 5.5 | 3.5 |
| Goals against / game | 0.3 | 1.5 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W | D W |
| Biggest win | 10–1 at Dublin United Football Club | 5–1 at Nevada Futbol Club |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +2.82 | +0.62 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.87 | -0.78 |
Common opponents: Football Club Alliance — we 5–0; they 2–2. Nevada Futbol Club — we 4–0; they 5–1.
Game plan
-
Respect their attack
Rocklin FC score 3.5/game — well above the league's 2.5.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
-
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 82% chance; likely score 4–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Rocklin FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sonoma Valley United – Rocklin FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.60 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Loss 2.40 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 4–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 99%
- 2nd 1%
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
7 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link Sonoma Valley United to Rocklin FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
5 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.26 · 7th hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 12:00 PM |
Rocklin FC 2nd · 1-1-0 · GD +4 |
Home Adele Harrison Middle School |
●○○○○ Favorable | 82% |
4–1 | 2.55 | 2.91 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 8 12:00 PM |
ALBION SC Silicon Valley 4th · 1-0-1 · GD +0 |
Home Altimira Middle School |
●○○○○ Favorable | 89% |
4–1 | 2.74 | 2.88 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 7 12:00 PM |
Football Club Alliance 5th · 2-1-2 · GD -3 |
Home Sonoma Valley High School |
●○○○○ Favorable | 88% |
3–0 | 2.71 | 2.86 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 21 12:00 AM |
ALBION SC Central Valley 3rd · 2-0-1 · GD -1 |
Away TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 79% |
3–1 | 2.48 | 2.81 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 4 11:00 AM |
Dublin United Football Club 7th · 0-0-3 · GD -11 |
Home Adele Harrison Middle School |
●○○○○ Favorable | 98% |
6–1 | 2.94 | 2.83 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 11 12:00 PM |
Rocklin FC 2nd · 1-1-0 · GD +4 |
Away TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 73% |
3–1 | 2.33 | 2.78 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 25 12:00 AM |
ALBION SC Silicon Valley 4th · 1-0-1 · GD +0 |
Away TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 83% |
4–1 | 2.57 | 2.76 | Bank it |
| Sun May 2 12:00 PM |
Nevada Futbol Club 6th · 1-0-4 · GD -10 |
Home Adele Harrison Middle School |
●○○○○ Favorable | 95% |
5–0 | 2.89 | 2.77 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Sonoma Valley United | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 1 | +21 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.87 | -0.26 | 100% | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Rocklin FC · Sun Nov 8 vs ALBION SC Silicon Valley · Sun Mar 7 vs Football Club Alliance See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Rocklin FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 4 | 2.00 | WD | -0.78 | +0.05 | 94% | 2.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 13 vs ALBION SC Silicon Valley · Sun Oct 25 at Sonoma Valley United · Sun Nov 8 vs Dublin United Football Club See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | ALBION SC Central Valley | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 6 | 2.00 | WLW | +0.53 | -0.15 | 83% | 3.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Dublin United Football Club · Sun Nov 8 at Football Club Alliance · Sun Nov 15 vs Rocklin FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | ALBION SC Silicon Valley | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | +0 | 3 | 1.50 | LW | -0.21 | +0.05 | 77% | 3.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 13 at Rocklin FC · Sun Nov 8 at Sonoma Valley United · Sun Nov 15 at Dublin United Football Club See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Football Club Alliance | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 7 | 1.40 | LWDWL | +0.05 | +0.06 | 44% | 4.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 vs ALBION SC Central Valley · Sun Mar 7 at Sonoma Valley United · Sun Mar 14 at Dublin United Football Club See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Nevada Futbol Club | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 3 | 0.60 | WLLLL | +0.29 | +0.20 | 1% | 6.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 21 at ALBION SC Silicon Valley · Sun Mar 7 at Dublin United Football Club · Sun Mar 14 at Rocklin FC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Dublin United Football Club | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 15 | -11 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.56 | +0.27 | 1% | 6.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs ALBION SC Central Valley · Sun Nov 8 at Rocklin FC · Sun Nov 15 vs ALBION SC Silicon Valley See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.46 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.