ALBION SC Central Valley
Elite Academy League · Nor Cal U15 · 7 teams · ALBION SC Central Valley (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 11:30 AM
Emerald High School, Emerald High School Stadium ↗ · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 3.0 for, 1.9 against · 1.99 expected points)
| Season so far | ALBION SC Central Valley | Dublin United Football Club |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 7th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-0-1 | 0-0-3 |
| Points per game | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals against / game | 2.0 | 5.0 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W L W | L L L |
| Biggest win | 4–3 vs ALBION SC Silicon Valley | — |
| Worst loss | 0–3 at Sonoma Valley United | 1–10 vs Sonoma Valley United |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.05 | -1.74 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.53 | +0.56 |
Common opponents: Sonoma Valley United — we 0–3; they 1–10. Nevada Futbol Club — we 1–0; they 3–4.
Game plan
-
They leak goals — be greedy
Dublin United Football Club concede 5.0/game; worst result 1–10 vs Sonoma Valley United.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 at Sonoma Valley United.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 61% / draw 17% / loss 22%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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Confidence is low on their side
Dublin United Football Club have lost 3 straight (form: LLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
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Away game
Kickoff 11:30 AM at Emerald High School.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Rocklin FC sit 2nd on 2.00 PPG; we are on 2.00.A point moves us above Rocklin FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Dublin United Football Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (ALBION SC Central Valley – Dublin United Football Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.25 PPG |
2nd▲ up 1 | 2nd▲ up 1 | 3rd— holds |
| Win 2.25 PPG |
2nd▲ up 1 | 2nd▲ up 1 | 3rd— holds |
| Draw 1.75 PPG |
3rd— holds | 2nd▲ up 1 | 3rd— holds |
| Loss 1.50 PPG |
4th▼ down 1 | 3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 27%
- 3rd 30%
- 4th 24%
- 5th 17%
- 6th 1%
- 7th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.75 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sonoma Valley United | 3.00 (+1.00) | 1st (2.77) | 30 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Rocklin FC | 2.00 (+0.00) | 2nd (1.75) | A point next game |
How the results connect
7 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link ALBION SC Central Valley to Dublin United Football Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
5 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.15 · 6th hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 11:30 AM |
Dublin United Football Club 7th · 0-0-3 · GD -11 |
Away Emerald High School · turf? |
●●○○○ Lean win | 61% |
2–1 | 1.99 | 2.00 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 03:00 PM |
Football Club Alliance 5th · 2-1-2 · GD -3 |
Away De Anza High School |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
1–1 | 1.42 | 1.88 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 02:00 PM |
Rocklin FC 2nd · 1-1-0 · GD +4 |
Home Buchanan High School |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.23 | 1.77 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 12:00 AM |
ALBION SC Silicon Valley 4th · 1-0-1 · GD +0 |
Away TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
2–2 | 1.20 | 1.69 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 12:00 AM |
Sonoma Valley United 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +21 |
Home TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
1–3 | 0.40 | 1.53 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 02:00 PM |
Nevada Futbol Club 6th · 1-0-4 · GD -10 |
Home TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 65% |
2–1 | 2.13 | 1.60 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 11 12:00 AM |
Dublin United Football Club 7th · 0-0-3 · GD -11 |
Home TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 71% |
3–1 | 2.27 | 1.66 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 25 12:00 AM |
Football Club Alliance 5th · 2-1-2 · GD -3 |
Home TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
1–1 | 1.69 | 1.67 | Swing game |
| Sun May 2 12:00 AM |
Rocklin FC 2nd · 1-1-0 · GD +4 |
Away TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 25% |
1–2 | 0.94 | 1.61 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Sonoma Valley United | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 1 | +21 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.87 | -0.26 | 100% | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Rocklin FC · Sun Nov 8 vs ALBION SC Silicon Valley · Sun Mar 7 vs Football Club Alliance See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Rocklin FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 4 | 2.00 | WD | -0.78 | +0.05 | 93% | 2.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 13 vs ALBION SC Silicon Valley · Sun Oct 25 at Sonoma Valley United · Sun Nov 8 vs Dublin United Football Club See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | ALBION SC Central Valley | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 6 | 2.00 | WLW | +0.53 | -0.15 | 82% | 3.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Dublin United Football Club · Sun Nov 8 at Football Club Alliance · Sun Nov 15 vs Rocklin FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | ALBION SC Silicon Valley | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | +0 | 3 | 1.50 | LW | -0.21 | +0.05 | 77% | 3.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 13 at Rocklin FC · Sun Nov 8 at Sonoma Valley United · Sun Nov 15 at Dublin United Football Club See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Football Club Alliance | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 7 | 1.40 | LWDWL | +0.05 | +0.06 | 47% | 4.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 vs ALBION SC Central Valley · Sun Mar 7 at Sonoma Valley United · Sun Mar 14 at Dublin United Football Club See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Nevada Futbol Club | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 3 | 0.60 | WLLLL | +0.29 | +0.20 | 1% | 6.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 21 at ALBION SC Silicon Valley · Sun Mar 7 at Dublin United Football Club · Sun Mar 14 at Rocklin FC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Dublin United Football Club | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 15 | -11 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.56 | +0.27 | 1% | 6.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs ALBION SC Central Valley · Sun Nov 8 at Rocklin FC · Sun Nov 15 vs ALBION SC Silicon Valley See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.46 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.