Football Club Alliance
Elite Academy League · Nor Cal U15 · 7 teams · Football Club Alliance (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 8, 03:00 PM
De Anza High School, Soccer Field ↗
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.7 for, 1.7 against · 1.36 expected points)
| Season so far | Football Club Alliance | ALBION SC Central Valley |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-1-2 | 2-0-1 |
| Points per game | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / game | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Goals against / game | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L W D W L | W L W |
| Biggest win | 2–0 at Nevada Futbol Club | 4–3 vs ALBION SC Silicon Valley |
| Worst loss | 0–5 vs Sonoma Valley United | 0–3 at Sonoma Valley United |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.35 | -0.05 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.05 | +0.53 |
Common opponents: Sonoma Valley United — we 0–5; they 0–3. Nevada Futbol Club — we 2–0; they 1–0. ALBION SC Silicon Valley — we 2–3; they 4–3.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–5 vs Sonoma Valley United.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 38%; a draw (23%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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What a win does
ALBION SC Silicon Valley sit 4th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.40.A point moves us above ALBION SC Silicon Valley on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the ALBION SC Central Valley game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Football Club Alliance – ALBION SC Central Valley) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.33 PPG |
5th— holds | 4th▲ up 1 | 5th— holds |
| Win 1.67 PPG |
3rd▲ up 2 | 3rd▲ up 2 | 4th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.33 PPG |
5th— holds | 4th▲ up 1 | 5th— holds |
| Loss 1.17 PPG |
5th— holds | 4th▲ up 1 | 5th— holds |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd 5%
- 3rd 13%
- 4th 28%
- 5th 50%
- 6th 5%
- 7th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 2.33 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sonoma Valley United | 3.00 (+1.60) | 1st (2.77) | 29 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Rocklin FC | 2.00 (+0.60) | 2nd (1.75) | 17 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection |
| 3 | ALBION SC Central Valley | 2.00 (+0.60) | 3rd (1.61) | 17 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection |
| 4 | ALBION SC Silicon Valley | 1.50 (+0.10) | 4th (1.50) | A point next game |
How the results connect
8 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Football Club Alliance to ALBION SC Central Valley through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
5 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.06 · 3rd hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 8 03:00 PM |
ALBION SC Central Valley 3rd · 2-0-1 · GD -1 |
Home De Anza High School |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
1–1 | 1.36 | 1.39 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 7 12:00 PM |
Sonoma Valley United 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +21 |
Away Sonoma Valley High School |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
0–3 | 0.21 | 1.22 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 12:00 AM |
Dublin United Football Club 7th · 0-0-3 · GD -11 |
Away TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
2–1 | 1.79 | 1.29 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 21 12:00 AM |
Rocklin FC 2nd · 1-1-0 · GD +4 |
Home TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 29% |
1–2 | 1.06 | 1.27 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 12:00 AM |
ALBION SC Silicon Valley 4th · 1-0-1 · GD +0 |
Away TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
1–2 | 1.02 | 1.24 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 12:00 AM |
Nevada Futbol Club 6th · 1-0-4 · GD -10 |
Home TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 58% |
2–1 | 1.95 | 1.31 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 25 12:00 AM |
ALBION SC Central Valley 3rd · 2-0-1 · GD -1 |
Away TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 29% |
1–1 | 1.09 | 1.29 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Sonoma Valley United | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 1 | +21 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.87 | -0.26 | 100% | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Rocklin FC · Sun Nov 8 vs ALBION SC Silicon Valley · Sun Mar 7 vs Football Club Alliance See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Rocklin FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 4 | 2.00 | WD | -0.78 | +0.05 | 93% | 2.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 13 vs ALBION SC Silicon Valley · Sun Oct 25 at Sonoma Valley United · Sun Nov 8 vs Dublin United Football Club See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | ALBION SC Central Valley | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 6 | 2.00 | WLW | +0.53 | -0.15 | 83% | 3.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Dublin United Football Club · Sun Nov 8 at Football Club Alliance · Sun Nov 15 vs Rocklin FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | ALBION SC Silicon Valley | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | +0 | 3 | 1.50 | LW | -0.21 | +0.05 | 77% | 3.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 13 at Rocklin FC · Sun Nov 8 at Sonoma Valley United · Sun Nov 15 at Dublin United Football Club See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Football Club Alliance | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 7 | 1.40 | LWDWL | +0.05 | +0.06 | 45% | 4.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 vs ALBION SC Central Valley · Sun Mar 7 at Sonoma Valley United · Sun Mar 14 at Dublin United Football Club See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Nevada Futbol Club | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 3 | 0.60 | WLLLL | +0.29 | +0.20 | 1% | 6.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 21 at ALBION SC Silicon Valley · Sun Mar 7 at Dublin United Football Club · Sun Mar 14 at Rocklin FC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Dublin United Football Club | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 15 | -11 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.56 | +0.27 | 1% | 6.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs ALBION SC Central Valley · Sun Nov 8 at Rocklin FC · Sun Nov 15 vs ALBION SC Silicon Valley See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.46 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.