Rocklin FC
Elite Academy League · Nor Cal U15 · 7 teams · Rocklin FC (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 12:00 PM
Adele Harrison Middle School, Adele Harrison Middle School ↗
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–4 (expected goals 1.4 for, 4.0 against · 0.35 expected points)
| Season so far | Rocklin FC | Sonoma Valley United |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2nd | 1st |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-1-0 | 4-0-0 |
| Points per game | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| Goals for / game | 3.5 | 5.5 |
| Goals against / game | 1.5 | 0.3 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 3 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | D W | W W W W |
| Biggest win | 5–1 at Nevada Futbol Club | 10–1 at Dublin United Football Club |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.62 | +2.82 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.78 | -0.87 |
Common opponents: Nevada Futbol Club — we 5–1; they 4–0. Football Club Alliance — we 2–2; they 5–0.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
Sonoma Valley United score 5.5/game — well above the league's 2.5.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Hard to break down
Sonoma Valley United concede only 0.2/game with 3 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 8%; a draw (10%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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They arrive in form
Sonoma Valley United have won 4 straight.Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
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Away game
Kickoff 12:00 PM at Adele Harrison Middle School.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Sonoma Valley United game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Rocklin FC – Sonoma Valley United) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 1.33 PPG |
5th▼ down 3 | 5th▼ down 3 | 5th▼ down 3 |
| Win 2.33 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Draw 1.67 PPG |
3rd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.33 PPG |
5th▼ down 3 | 5th▼ down 3 | 5th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–4 loss we fall to at least 5th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 1%
- 2nd 50%
- 3rd 27%
- 4th 15%
- 5th 7%
- 6th 1%
- 7th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.83 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sonoma Valley United | 3.00 (+1.00) | 1st (2.77) | 32 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection |
How the results connect
7 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link Rocklin FC to Sonoma Valley United through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
5 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.05 · 4th hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Sep 13 02:00 PM no score posted |
ALBION SC Silicon Valley 4th · 1-0-1 · GD +0 |
Home Placer Valley Sports Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 58% |
3–2 | 1.91 | 1.97 | Swing game |
| Sun Oct 25 12:00 PM |
Sonoma Valley United 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +21 |
Away Adele Harrison Middle School |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
1–4 | 0.35 | 1.56 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 02:00 PM |
Dublin United Football Club 7th · 0-0-3 · GD -11 |
Home Placer Valley Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 84% |
4–1 | 2.59 | 1.77 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 15 02:00 PM |
ALBION SC Central Valley 3rd · 2-0-1 · GD -1 |
Away Buchanan High School |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
2–2 | 1.57 | 1.74 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 7 12:00 AM |
ALBION SC Silicon Valley 4th · 1-0-1 · GD +0 |
Away TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
3–2 | 1.56 | 1.71 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 14 12:00 AM |
Nevada Futbol Club 6th · 1-0-4 · GD -10 |
Home TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
3–1 | 2.45 | 1.80 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 21 12:00 AM |
Football Club Alliance 5th · 2-1-2 · GD -3 |
Away TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
2–1 | 1.74 | 1.80 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 11 12:00 PM |
Sonoma Valley United 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +21 |
Home TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–3 | 0.54 | 1.67 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 12:00 AM |
Dublin United Football Club 7th · 0-0-3 · GD -11 |
Away TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 75% |
4–1 | 2.36 | 1.73 | Bank it |
| Sun May 2 12:00 AM |
ALBION SC Central Valley 3rd · 2-0-1 · GD -1 |
Home TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
2–1 | 1.88 | 1.75 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Sonoma Valley United | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 1 | +21 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.87 | -0.26 | 100% | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Rocklin FC · Sun Nov 8 vs ALBION SC Silicon Valley · Sun Mar 7 vs Football Club Alliance See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Rocklin FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 4 | 2.00 | WD | -0.78 | +0.05 | 93% | 2.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 13 vs ALBION SC Silicon Valley · Sun Oct 25 at Sonoma Valley United · Sun Nov 8 vs Dublin United Football Club See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | ALBION SC Central Valley | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 6 | 2.00 | WLW | +0.53 | -0.15 | 82% | 3.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Dublin United Football Club · Sun Nov 8 at Football Club Alliance · Sun Nov 15 vs Rocklin FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | ALBION SC Silicon Valley | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | +0 | 3 | 1.50 | LW | -0.21 | +0.05 | 77% | 3.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 13 at Rocklin FC · Sun Nov 8 at Sonoma Valley United · Sun Nov 15 at Dublin United Football Club See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Football Club Alliance | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 7 | 1.40 | LWDWL | +0.05 | +0.06 | 46% | 4.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 vs ALBION SC Central Valley · Sun Mar 7 at Sonoma Valley United · Sun Mar 14 at Dublin United Football Club See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Nevada Futbol Club | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 3 | 0.60 | WLLLL | +0.29 | +0.20 | 2% | 6.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 21 at ALBION SC Silicon Valley · Sun Mar 7 at Dublin United Football Club · Sun Mar 14 at Rocklin FC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Dublin United Football Club | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 15 | -11 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.56 | +0.27 | 1% | 6.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs ALBION SC Central Valley · Sun Nov 8 at Rocklin FC · Sun Nov 15 vs ALBION SC Silicon Valley See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.46 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.