Utah Surf PRE Blue

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Utah GU11 · 8 teams · Utah Surf (all teams)

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4th

5-0-3 record · 8 played

1.88 points per game

+4 goal diff · 22–18

WWLWWlast 5

92% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.7

+0.33 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM

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Utah Surf PRE Blue
4th · 1.88 PPG

Idaho Rush Pre- Blue
6th · 0.86 PPG

Optimist Sports Complex, field 12 ↗ far trip

46% 19% 35%

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.4 for, 2.1 against · 1.58 expected points)

Season so far	Utah Surf PRE Blue	Idaho Rush Pre- Blue
Position	4th	6th
Record (W-D-L)	5-0-3	2-0-5
Points per game	1.88	0.86
Goals for / game	2.8	2.1
Goals against / game	2.3	2.6
Clean sheets	2	1
Held scoreless	1	1
Form (recent first)	W W L W W	L W L W L
Biggest win	10–0 vs Boise Thorns Pre- One	5–0 at Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I
Worst loss	0–7 vs La Roca FC Pre North T1	1–6 vs Utah Avalanche Pre- North
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.52	-0.15
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.33	+0.16

Already played this season: Sat Sep 26 3–2 vs Idaho Rush Pre- Blue (W); Fri Oct 23 1–0 at Idaho Rush Pre- Blue (W)

Common opponents: La Roca FC Pre North T1 — we 0–7; they 2–3. Utah Avalanche Pre- South — we 1–2, 2–4; they 2–4. Boise Thorns Pre- One — we 10–0, 2–1; they 3–1. Utah Avalanche Pre- North — we 3–2; they 1–6.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–7 vs La Roca FC Pre North T1.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Swing game — small margins
Win 46% / draw 19% / loss 35%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
Away game
Kickoff 01:00 PM at Optimist Sports Complex.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
Utah Avalanche Pre- North sit 3rd on 1.88 PPG; we are on 1.88.
A point moves us above Utah Avalanche Pre- North on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Idaho Rush Pre- Blue game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Utah Surf PRE Blue – Idaho Rush Pre- Blue) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 1.78 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	5th▼ down 1
Win 2.00 PPG	3rd▲ up 1	3rd▲ up 1	5th▼ down 1
Draw 1.78 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	5th▼ down 1
Loss 1.67 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	5th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

92% top 4

8% below the top 4

3.7 average finish

1st
2nd 5%
3rd 26%
4th 62%
5th 7%
6th <1%
7th
8th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.57 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	La Roca FC Pre North T1	3.00 (+1.12)	1st (2.80)	48 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Utah Avalanche Pre- South	2.50 (+0.62)	2nd (2.21)	38 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
3	Utah Avalanche Pre- North	1.88 (+0.00)	3rd (1.94)	A point next game

How the results connect

25 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Utah Surf PRE Blue to Idaho Rush Pre- Blue through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

12 favour us

5 even

8 favour them

+1.1 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.41 · 5th hardest of 8

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Aug 29 TBD no score posted	Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I 8th · 0-0-6 · GD -32	Away	●○○○○ Favorable	90%	4–1	2.75	1.97	Bank it
Sat Oct 24 01:00 PM	Idaho Rush Pre- Blue 6th · 2-0-5 · GD -3	Away far trip Optimist Sports Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	46%	2–2	1.58	1.93	Swing game
Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM	Boise Thorns Pre- One 7th · 1-0-6 · GD -20	Away far trip Boise Timbers\|Thorns - Soccer Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	73%	4–2	2.30	1.97	Bank it
Sat Oct 31 11:00 AM	Utah Avalanche Pre- North 3rd · 5-0-3 · GD +15	Home Smooth Canyon Park	●●●●○ Tough	34%	2–2	1.19	1.90	Upside
Sat Nov 7 04:30 PM	La Roca FC Pre North T1 1st · 7-0-0 · GD +34	Away far trip La Roca Park	●●●●● Very tough	6%	1–4	0.28	1.78	Upside
Sat Mar 13 09:00 AM	Utah Avalanche Pre- North 3rd · 5-0-3 · GD +15	Away Rockwell Training Facility	●●●●● Very tough	24%	1–2	0.89	1.71	Upside
Sat Mar 20 TBD	La Roca FC Pre South 5th · 3-0-4 · GD -10	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	72%	3–1	2.29	1.75	Bank it
Sat Apr 10 10:30 AM	La Roca FC Pre South 5th · 3-0-4 · GD -10	Away La Roca FC Utah County Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	62%	2–1	2.02	1.77	Swing game
Sun Apr 11 TBD	La Roca FC Pre North T1 1st · 7-0-0 · GD +34	Home	●●●●● Very tough	11%	1–3	0.44	1.69	Upside
Sat Apr 17 TBD	Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I 8th · 0-0-6 · GD -32	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	94%	5–1	2.86	1.75	Bank it
Sat Apr 24 TBD	Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I 8th · 0-0-6 · GD -32	Away	●○○○○ Favorable	90%	4–1	2.75	1.81	Bank it
Sat May 8 TBD	La Roca FC Pre South 5th · 3-0-4 · GD -10	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	72%	3–1	2.29	1.83	Bank it
Sat May 15 TBD	Utah Avalanche Pre- South 2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +12	Home	●●●●○ Tough	30%	1–2	1.10	1.80	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

La Roca FC Pre North T1

+34

3.00

WWWWW

-0.17

-0.74

100%

1.0

W	Fri Oct 23	vs	Utah Avalanche Pre- North (3rd)	3–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Boise Thorns Pre- One (7th)	8–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Idaho Rush Pre- Blue (6th)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Utah Avalanche Pre- South (2nd)	2–1
W	Thu Sep 17	at	Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I (8th)	12–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Utah Surf PRE Blue (4th)	7–0
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Utah Avalanche Pre- North (3rd)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I · Sat Nov 7 vs Utah Surf PRE Blue · Sat Nov 21 at La Roca FC Pre South See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I (8th)	9–0	100%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Utah Surf PRE Blue (4th)	4–1	85%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	La Roca FC Pre South (5th)	4–0	92%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	La Roca FC Pre South (5th)	5–0	96%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I (8th)	9–0	100%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Utah Avalanche Pre- South (2nd)	2–1	62%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Utah Surf PRE Blue (4th)	3–1	78%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Utah Avalanche Pre- South (2nd)	3–1	72%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	La Roca FC Pre South (5th)	5–0	96%
·	Sat May 1	at	Boise Thorns Pre- One (7th)	6–1	97%
·	Sat May 8	at	Boise Thorns Pre- One (7th)	6–1	97%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Utah Avalanche Pre- North (3rd)	3–1	76%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Utah Avalanche Pre- South

+12

2.50

WWLWW

+0.37

-0.47

100%

2.3

W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Utah Surf PRE Blue (4th)	4–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	La Roca FC Pre South (5th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	La Roca FC Pre North T1 (1st)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Utah Surf PRE Blue (4th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Idaho Rush Pre- Blue (6th)	4–2
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	La Roca FC Pre South (5th)	5–0

Next: Sat Sep 12 at Boise Thorns Pre- One · Sat Oct 24 at Utah Avalanche Pre- North · Sat Nov 7 at La Roca FC Pre South See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 12 (no score yet)	at	Boise Thorns Pre- One (7th)	4–1	84%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Utah Avalanche Pre- North (3rd)	2–2	38%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	La Roca FC Pre South (5th)	3–1	75%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Utah Avalanche Pre- North (3rd)	2–1	49%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I (8th)	5–1	95%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I (8th)	6–0	97%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Idaho Rush Pre- Blue (6th)	3–1	71%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Boise Thorns Pre- One (7th)	5–1	90%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	La Roca FC Pre North T1 (1st)	1–2	21%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Utah Avalanche Pre- North (3rd)	2–1	49%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I (8th)	5–1	95%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	La Roca FC Pre North T1 (1st)	1–3	14%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Boise Thorns Pre- One (7th)	5–1	90%
·	Sat May 15	at	Utah Surf PRE Blue (4th)	2–1	51%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Utah Avalanche Pre- North

+15

1.88

WWLWL

-0.06

-0.29

97%

3.1

L	Fri Oct 23	at	La Roca FC Pre North T1 (1st)	1–3
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	La Roca FC Pre South (5th)	3–0
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Utah Surf PRE Blue (4th)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I (8th)	7–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	La Roca FC Pre South (5th)	6–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Boise Thorns Pre- One (7th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Idaho Rush Pre- Blue (6th)	6–1
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	La Roca FC Pre North T1 (1st)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Utah Avalanche Pre- South · Sat Oct 31 at Utah Surf PRE Blue · Sat Nov 7 at Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Utah Avalanche Pre- South (2nd)	2–2	42%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Utah Surf PRE Blue (4th)	2–2	48%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I (8th)	5–1	94%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Utah Avalanche Pre- South (2nd)	1–2	32%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Utah Surf PRE Blue (4th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Boise Thorns Pre- One (7th)	5–1	90%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Idaho Rush Pre- Blue (6th)	3–1	69%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I (8th)	6–1	97%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Utah Avalanche Pre- South (2nd)	1–2	32%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	La Roca FC Pre South (5th)	3–1	73%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Boise Thorns Pre- One (7th)	5–1	90%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Idaho Rush Pre- Blue (6th)	3–1	69%
·	Sat May 15	at	La Roca FC Pre North T1 (1st)	1–3	12%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Utah Surf PRE Blue

1.88

WWLWW

+0.33

-0.41

92%

3.7

W	Fri Oct 23	at	Boise Thorns Pre- One (7th)	2–1
W	Fri Oct 23	at	Idaho Rush Pre- Blue (6th)	1–0
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Utah Avalanche Pre- South (2nd)	2–4
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Utah Avalanche Pre- North (3rd)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Idaho Rush Pre- Blue (6th)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Boise Thorns Pre- One (7th)	10–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Utah Avalanche Pre- South (2nd)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	La Roca FC Pre North T1 (1st)	0–7

Next: Sat Aug 29 at Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I · Sat Oct 24 at Idaho Rush Pre- Blue · Sat Oct 24 at Boise Thorns Pre- One See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Aug 29 (no score yet)	at	Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I (8th)	4–1	90%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Idaho Rush Pre- Blue (6th)	2–2	46%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Boise Thorns Pre- One (7th)	4–2	73%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Utah Avalanche Pre- North (3rd)	2–2	34%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	La Roca FC Pre North T1 (1st)	1–4	6%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Utah Avalanche Pre- North (3rd)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	La Roca FC Pre South (5th)	3–1	72%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	La Roca FC Pre South (5th)	2–1	62%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	La Roca FC Pre North T1 (1st)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I (8th)	5–1	94%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I (8th)	4–1	90%
·	Sat May 8	vs	La Roca FC Pre South (5th)	3–1	72%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Utah Avalanche Pre- South (2nd)	1–2	30%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

La Roca FC Pre South

-10

1.29

LWLWL

-0.53

+0.15

5.9

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Utah Avalanche Pre- North (3rd)	0–3
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I (8th)	4–0
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Utah Avalanche Pre- South (2nd)	0–3
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Boise Thorns Pre- One (7th)	5–4
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Utah Avalanche Pre- North (3rd)	1–6
W	Fri Sep 11	at	Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I (8th)	2–1
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Utah Avalanche Pre- South (2nd)	0–5

Next: Sat Sep 26 vs Idaho Rush Pre- Blue · Fri Oct 23 at Boise Thorns Pre- One · Sat Oct 24 at Boise Thorns Pre- One See all 16 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 26 (no score yet)	vs	Idaho Rush Pre- Blue (6th)	1–2	31%
·	Fri Oct 23 (no score yet)	at	Boise Thorns Pre- One (7th)	2–2	43%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Boise Thorns Pre- One (7th)	2–2	43%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Idaho Rush Pre- Blue (6th)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Boise Thorns Pre- One (7th)	2–2	43%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Idaho Rush Pre- Blue (6th)	1–2	22%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Boise Thorns Pre- One (7th)	2–2	43%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Utah Avalanche Pre- South (2nd)	1–3	12%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	La Roca FC Pre North T1 (1st)	0–4	3%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	La Roca FC Pre North T1 (1st)	0–5	1%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Utah Surf PRE Blue (4th)	1–3	14%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Utah Surf PRE Blue (4th)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Utah Avalanche Pre- North (3rd)	1–3	14%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	La Roca FC Pre North T1 (1st)	0–5	1%
·	Sat May 8	at	Utah Surf PRE Blue (4th)	1–3	14%
·	Sat May 15	at	Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I (8th)	3–1	69%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Idaho Rush Pre- Blue

-3

0.86

LWLWL

+0.16

-0.86

10%

5.0

L	Fri Oct 23	vs	Utah Surf PRE Blue (4th)	0–1
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I (8th)	5–0
L	Sat Oct 17	at	La Roca FC Pre North T1 (1st)	2–3
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Boise Thorns Pre- One (7th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Utah Surf PRE Blue (4th)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Utah Avalanche Pre- South (2nd)	2–4
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Utah Avalanche Pre- North (3rd)	1–6

Next: Sat Sep 26 at La Roca FC Pre South · Sat Oct 24 vs Utah Surf PRE Blue · Sat Oct 24 vs La Roca FC Pre South See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 26 (no score yet)	at	La Roca FC Pre South (5th)	2–1	50%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Utah Surf PRE Blue (4th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	La Roca FC Pre South (5th)	2–1	61%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	La Roca FC Pre South (5th)	2–1	61%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Boise Thorns Pre- One (7th)	3–1	71%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Utah Avalanche Pre- North (3rd)	1–3	16%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Utah Avalanche Pre- South (2nd)	1–3	15%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Boise Thorns Pre- One (7th)	3–2	60%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Utah Avalanche Pre- North (3rd)	1–3	16%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I (8th)	4–1	89%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I (8th)	4–1	89%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Boise Thorns Pre- One

-20

0.43

LLLWL

+0.10

+0.66

6.9

L	Fri Oct 23	vs	Utah Surf PRE Blue (4th)	1–2
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I (8th)	7–3
L	Sat Oct 17	at	La Roca FC Pre North T1 (1st)	0–8
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Idaho Rush Pre- Blue (6th)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Utah Surf PRE Blue (4th)	0–10
L	Sat Sep 26	at	La Roca FC Pre South (5th)	4–5
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Utah Avalanche Pre- North (3rd)	1–3

Next: Sat Sep 12 vs Utah Avalanche Pre- South · Fri Oct 23 vs La Roca FC Pre South · Sat Oct 24 vs La Roca FC Pre South See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 12 (no score yet)	vs	Utah Avalanche Pre- South (2nd)	1–4	7%
·	Fri Oct 23 (no score yet)	vs	La Roca FC Pre South (5th)	2–2	39%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	La Roca FC Pre South (5th)	2–2	39%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	La Roca FC Pre South (5th)	2–2	39%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Utah Surf PRE Blue (4th)	2–4	15%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	La Roca FC Pre South (5th)	2–2	39%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Idaho Rush Pre- Blue (6th)	1–3	16%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Utah Avalanche Pre- North (3rd)	1–5	5%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Utah Avalanche Pre- South (2nd)	1–5	4%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Idaho Rush Pre- Blue (6th)	2–3	24%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Utah Avalanche Pre- North (3rd)	1–5	5%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Utah Avalanche Pre- South (2nd)	1–5	4%
·	Sat May 1	vs	La Roca FC Pre North T1 (1st)	1–6	1%
·	Sat May 8	vs	La Roca FC Pre North T1 (1st)	1–6	1%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I

-32

0.00

LLLLL

-0.01

+1.03

8.0

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Boise Thorns Pre- One (7th)	3–7
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Idaho Rush Pre- Blue (6th)	0–5
L	Sat Oct 10	at	La Roca FC Pre South (5th)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Utah Avalanche Pre- North (3rd)	1–7
L	Thu Sep 17	vs	La Roca FC Pre North T1 (1st)	0–12
L	Fri Sep 11	vs	La Roca FC Pre South (5th)	1–2

Next: Sat Aug 29 vs Utah Surf PRE Blue · Sat Oct 24 at La Roca FC Pre North T1 · Sat Nov 7 vs Utah Avalanche Pre- North See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Aug 29 (no score yet)	vs	Utah Surf PRE Blue (4th)	1–4	4%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	La Roca FC Pre North T1 (1st)	0–9	0%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Utah Avalanche Pre- North (3rd)	1–5	2%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Utah Avalanche Pre- South (2nd)	1–5	2%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Utah Avalanche Pre- South (2nd)	0–6	1%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	La Roca FC Pre North T1 (1st)	0–9	0%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Utah Avalanche Pre- North (3rd)	1–6	1%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Utah Avalanche Pre- South (2nd)	1–5	2%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Utah Surf PRE Blue (4th)	1–5	2%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Utah Surf PRE Blue (4th)	1–4	4%
·	Sat May 1	at	Idaho Rush Pre- Blue (6th)	1–4	5%
·	Sat May 8	at	Idaho Rush Pre- Blue (6th)	1–4	5%
·	Sat May 15	vs	La Roca FC Pre South (5th)	1–3	17%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.70 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.