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Utah Avalanche Pre- North

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Utah GU11 · 8 teams · Utah Avalanche (all teams)

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3rd
5-0-2 record · 7 played
2.14 points per game
+17 goal diff · 27–10
WWWLWlast 5
99% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.9
-0.62 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Fri Oct 23, 07:45 PM

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Utah Avalanche Pre- North
3rd · 2.14 PPG
at
La Roca FC Pre North T1
1st · 3.00 PPG

La Roca Park, Field 3 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.7 for, 3.2 against · 0.66 expected points)

Season so farUtah Avalanche Pre- NorthLa Roca FC Pre North T1
Position3rd1st
Record (W-D-L)5-0-25-0-0
Points per game2.143.00
Goals for / game3.95.4
Goals against / game1.40.6
Clean sheets13
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)W L W W WW W W W W
Biggest win7–1 vs Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I12–0 at Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I
Worst loss0–3 vs La Roca FC Pre North T1—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.44+2.93
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.62-0.08

Already played this season: Sat Aug 29 0–3 vs La Roca FC Pre North T1 (L)

Common opponents: Idaho Rush Pre- Blue — we 6–1; they 3–2. Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I — we 7–1; they 12–0. Utah Surf PRE Blue — we 2–3; they 7–0.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    La Roca FC Pre North T1 score 5.4/game — well above the league's 2.9.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    La Roca FC Pre North T1 concede only 0.6/game with 3 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 vs La Roca FC Pre North T1.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 17%; a draw (15%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    La Roca FC Pre North T1 have won 5 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 07:45 PM at La Roca Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Friday goes…

Where we'd sit after the La Roca FC Pre North T1 game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Utah Avalanche Pre- North – La Roca FC Pre North T1) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 11 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.88 PPG		 3rd— holds 3rd— holds 6th▼ down 3
Win
2.25 PPG		 3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Draw
2.00 PPG		 3rd— holds 3rd— holds 5th▼ down 2
Loss
1.88 PPG		 3rd— holds 3rd— holds 6th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

1% finish 1st
99% top 4
1% below the top 4
2.9 average finish
  1. 1st 1%
  2. 2nd 26%
  3. 3rd 60%
  4. 4th 12%
  5. 5th 1%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th
  8. 8th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 14 remaining known games (max 2.71 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 La Roca FC Pre North T1 3.00 (+0.86) 1st (2.70) 48 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 42 for their projection
2 Utah Avalanche Pre- South 2.50 (+0.36) 2nd (2.20) 38 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection

How the results connect

22 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Utah Avalanche Pre- North to La Roca FC Pre North T1 through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
1 even
18 favour them
-3.3 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–3 6–1 2–3 7–1 0–12 2–3 0–7 0–5 3–0 0–3 1–2 3–2 6–1 0–5 3–1 1–3 2–4 Utah Avalanche Pre-… 3rd Idaho Rush Pre- Blue 6th Utah Avalanche NUU … 8th Utah Surf PRE Blue 4th La Roca FC Pre South 5th Boise Thorns Pre- O… 7th Utah Avalanche Pre-… 2nd La Roca FC Pre Nort… 1st

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

1st 4th 8th Aug 29 Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 3 Oct 17

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.02 · 4th hardest of 8

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Fri Oct 23
07:45 PM		 La Roca FC Pre North T1
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +24		 Away far trip
La Roca Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
17%		 1–3 0.66 1.96 Upside
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM		 Utah Avalanche Pre- South
2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +12		 Home
Rockwell Training Facility		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
44%		 2–1 1.53 1.91 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
11:00 AM		 Utah Surf PRE Blue
4th · 3-0-3 · GD +2		 Away
Smooth Canyon Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
53%		 3–2 1.76 1.89 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
TBD		 Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I
8th · 0-0-6 · GD -32		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
95%		 5–1 2.87 1.98 Bank it
Sat Nov 14
09:00 AM		 Utah Avalanche Pre- South
2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +12		 Away
Rockwell Training Facility		 ●●●●○ Tough
34%		 1–2 1.22 1.92 Upside
Sat Mar 13
09:00 AM		 Utah Surf PRE Blue
4th · 3-0-3 · GD +2		 Home
Rockwell Training Facility		 ●●○○○ Lean win
65%		 3–2 2.08 1.93 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
02:00 PM		 Boise Thorns Pre- One
7th · 1-0-4 · GD -11		 Home
Rockwell Training Facility		 ●○○○○ Favorable
88%		 5–1 2.70 1.99 Bank it
Sat Mar 20
TBD		 Idaho Rush Pre- Blue
6th · 2-0-4 · GD -2		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
71%		 3–1 2.26 2.01 Bank it
Sat Apr 3
12:00 PM		 Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I
8th · 0-0-6 · GD -32		 Home
Rockwell Training Facility		 ●○○○○ Favorable
97%		 6–0 2.94 2.06 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
TBD		 Utah Avalanche Pre- South
2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +12		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
34%		 1–2 1.22 2.01 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD		 La Roca FC Pre South
5th · 3-0-4 · GD -10		 Away
●●○○○ Lean win
74%		 3–1 2.36 2.03 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
TBD		 Idaho Rush Pre- Blue
6th · 2-0-4 · GD -2		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
71%		 3–1 2.26 2.05 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
TBD		 Boise Thorns Pre- One
7th · 1-0-4 · GD -11		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
88%		 5–1 2.70 2.08 Bank it
Sat May 15
TBD		 La Roca FC Pre North T1
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +24		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
17%		 1–3 0.66 2.01 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 La Roca FC Pre North T1 5500 273+24 153.00 WWWWW -0.08 -0.59 100% 1.1
2 Utah Avalanche Pre- South 6501 197+12 152.50 WWLWW +0.32 -0.40 100% 2.3
3 Utah Avalanche Pre- North 7502 2710+17 152.14 WWWLW -0.62 -0.02 99% 2.9
4 Utah Surf PRE Blue 6303 1917+2 91.50 LWWWL +0.90 -0.46 75% 4.1
5 La Roca FC Pre South 7304 1222-10 91.29 LWLWL -0.44 +0.21 1% 6.1
6 Idaho Rush Pre- Blue 6204 1517-2 61.00 LLWLW +0.12 -0.67 25% 4.8
7 Boise Thorns Pre- One 5104 1324-11 30.60 LLLLW -0.65 +0.77 0% 6.8
8 Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I 6006 537-32 00.00 LLLLL +0.05 +1.01 0% 8.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.89 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.