TableChase Clubs

La Roca FC Pre North T1

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Utah GU11 · 8 teams · La Roca FC (all teams)

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1st
5-0-0 record · 5 played
3.00 points per game
+24 goal diff · 27–3
WWWWWlast 5
100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.1
-0.08 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Fri Oct 23, 07:45 PM

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La Roca FC Pre North T1
1st · 3.00 PPG
vs

La Roca Park, Field 3 ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.2 for, 1.7 against · 2.19 expected points)

Season so farLa Roca FC Pre North T1Utah Avalanche Pre- North
Position1st3rd
Record (W-D-L)5-0-05-0-2
Points per game3.002.14
Goals for / game5.43.9
Goals against / game0.61.4
Clean sheets31
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)W W W W WW L W W W
Biggest win12–0 at Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I7–1 vs Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I
Worst loss—0–3 vs La Roca FC Pre North T1
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+2.93+1.44
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.08-0.62

Already played this season: Sat Aug 29 3–0 at Utah Avalanche Pre- North (W)

Common opponents: Utah Surf PRE Blue — we 7–0; they 2–3. Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I — we 12–0; they 7–1. Idaho Rush Pre- Blue — we 3–2; they 6–1.

Game plan

  • Hard to break down
    Utah Avalanche Pre- North concede only 1.4/game with 1 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 68% / draw 15% / loss 17%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

If Friday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Utah Avalanche Pre- North game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (La Roca FC Pre North T1 – Utah Avalanche Pre- North) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 11 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Win
3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Draw
2.67 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Loss
2.50 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 2nd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

95% finish 1st
100% top 4
0% below the top 4
1.1 average finish
  1. 1st 95%
  2. 2nd 5%
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

22 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link La Roca FC Pre North T1 to Utah Avalanche Pre- North through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

18 favour us
1 even
3 favour them
+3.3 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–0 3–2 1–6 12–0 1–7 7–0 3–2 5–0 2–3 3–1 1–3 2–1 5–0 1–6 3–0 0–3 4–2 La Roca FC Pre Nort… 1st Idaho Rush Pre- Blue 6th Utah Avalanche NUU … 8th Utah Surf PRE Blue 4th Utah Avalanche Pre-… 2nd Boise Thorns Pre- O… 7th La Roca FC Pre South 5th Utah Avalanche Pre-… 3rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

1st 4th 8th Aug 29 Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 3 Oct 17

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.59 · 7th hardest of 8

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 17
09:00 AM
no score posted
Boise Thorns Pre- One
7th · 1-0-4 · GD -11
Home
La Roca Park
●○○○○ Favorable
96%
6–1 2.92 2.99 Bank it
Fri Oct 23
07:45 PM
Utah Avalanche Pre- North
3rd · 5-0-2 · GD +17
Home
La Roca Park
●●○○○ Lean win
68%
3–1 2.19 2.87 Swing game
Sat Oct 24
11:30 AM
Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I
8th · 0-0-6 · GD -32
Home
La Roca Park
●○○○○ Favorable
99%
8–0 2.99 2.89 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
04:30 PM
Utah Surf PRE Blue
4th · 3-0-3 · GD +2
Home
La Roca Park
●○○○○ Favorable
84%
4–1 2.60 2.86 Bank it
Sat Nov 21
12:30 PM
La Roca FC Pre South
5th · 3-0-4 · GD -10
Away far trip
La Roca FC Utah County Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
89%
4–1 2.74 2.84 Bank it
Sat Mar 13
06:00 PM
La Roca FC Pre South
5th · 3-0-4 · GD -10
Home
La Roca Park
●○○○○ Favorable
94%
5–1 2.85 2.84 Bank it
Sat Mar 20
04:30 PM
Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I
8th · 0-0-6 · GD -32
Home
La Roca Park
●○○○○ Favorable
99%
8–0 2.99 2.86 Bank it
Sat Apr 3
01:30 PM
Utah Avalanche Pre- South
2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +12
Away far trip
Rockwell Training Facility
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%
2–1 1.85 2.78 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
TBD
Utah Surf PRE Blue
4th · 3-0-3 · GD +2
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
76%
4–1 2.38 2.75 Bank it
Sat Apr 17
TBD
Utah Avalanche Pre- South
2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +12
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
2–1 2.13 2.71 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
10:30 AM
La Roca FC Pre South
5th · 3-0-4 · GD -10
Home
Regional Athletic Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
94%
5–1 2.85 2.72 Bank it
Sat May 1
TBD
Boise Thorns Pre- One
7th · 1-0-4 · GD -11
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
93%
6–1 2.84 2.72 Bank it
Sat May 8
TBD
Boise Thorns Pre- One
7th · 1-0-4 · GD -11
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
93%
6–1 2.84 2.73 Bank it
Sat May 15
TBD
Utah Avalanche Pre- North
3rd · 5-0-2 · GD +17
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
68%
3–1 2.19 2.70 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 La Roca FC Pre North T1 5500 273+24 153.00 WWWWW -0.08 -0.59 100% 1.1
2 Utah Avalanche Pre- South 6501 197+12 152.50 WWLWW +0.32 -0.40 100% 2.3
3 Utah Avalanche Pre- North 7502 2710+17 152.14 WWWLW -0.62 -0.02 99% 2.9
4 Utah Surf PRE Blue 6303 1917+2 91.50 LWWWL +0.90 -0.46 75% 4.1
5 La Roca FC Pre South 7304 1222-10 91.29 LWLWL -0.44 +0.21 1% 6.1
6 Idaho Rush Pre- Blue 6204 1517-2 61.00 LLWLW +0.12 -0.67 25% 4.8
7 Boise Thorns Pre- One 5104 1324-11 30.60 LLLLW -0.65 +0.77 0% 6.8
8 Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I 6006 537-32 00.00 LLLLL +0.05 +1.01 0% 8.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.89 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.