La Roca FC Pre North T1
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Utah GU11 · 8 teams · La Roca FC (all teams)
Next game — Fri Oct 23, 07:45 PM
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.2 for, 1.7 against · 2.19 expected points)
| Season so far | La Roca FC Pre North T1 | Utah Avalanche Pre- North |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-0-0 | 5-0-2 |
| Points per game | 3.00 | 2.14 |
| Goals for / game | 5.4 | 3.9 |
| Goals against / game | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W W | W L W W W |
| Biggest win | 12–0 at Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I | 7–1 vs Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I |
| Worst loss | — | 0–3 vs La Roca FC Pre North T1 |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +2.93 | +1.44 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.08 | -0.62 |
Already played this season: Sat Aug 29 3–0 at Utah Avalanche Pre- North (W)
Common opponents: Utah Surf PRE Blue — we 7–0; they 2–3. Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I — we 12–0; they 7–1. Idaho Rush Pre- Blue — we 3–2; they 6–1.
Game plan
-
Hard to break down
Utah Avalanche Pre- North concede only 1.4/game with 1 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 68% / draw 15% / loss 17%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
If Friday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Utah Avalanche Pre- North game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (La Roca FC Pre North T1 – Utah Avalanche Pre- North) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 11 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.67 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Loss 2.50 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 2nd▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 95%
- 2nd 5%
- 3rd <1%
- 4th <1%
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
22 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link La Roca FC Pre North T1 to Utah Avalanche Pre- North through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.59 · 7th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 17 09:00 AM no score posted |
Boise Thorns Pre- One 7th · 1-0-4 · GD -11 |
Home La Roca Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 96% |
6–1 | 2.92 | 2.99 | Bank it |
| Fri Oct 23 07:45 PM |
Utah Avalanche Pre- North 3rd · 5-0-2 · GD +17 |
Home La Roca Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
3–1 | 2.19 | 2.87 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 24 11:30 AM |
Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I 8th · 0-0-6 · GD -32 |
Home La Roca Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 99% |
8–0 | 2.99 | 2.89 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 7 04:30 PM |
Utah Surf PRE Blue 4th · 3-0-3 · GD +2 |
Home La Roca Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 84% |
4–1 | 2.60 | 2.86 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 21 12:30 PM |
La Roca FC Pre South 5th · 3-0-4 · GD -10 |
Away far trip
La Roca FC Utah County Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 89% |
4–1 | 2.74 | 2.84 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 13 06:00 PM |
La Roca FC Pre South 5th · 3-0-4 · GD -10 |
Home La Roca Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 94% |
5–1 | 2.85 | 2.84 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 20 04:30 PM |
Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I 8th · 0-0-6 · GD -32 |
Home La Roca Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 99% |
8–0 | 2.99 | 2.86 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 3 01:30 PM |
Utah Avalanche Pre- South 2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +12 |
Away far trip
Rockwell Training Facility |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 55% |
2–1 | 1.85 | 2.78 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
Utah Surf PRE Blue 4th · 3-0-3 · GD +2 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 76% |
4–1 | 2.38 | 2.75 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Utah Avalanche Pre- South 2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +12 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
2–1 | 2.13 | 2.71 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 10:30 AM |
La Roca FC Pre South 5th · 3-0-4 · GD -10 |
Home Regional Athletic Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 94% |
5–1 | 2.85 | 2.72 | Bank it |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
Boise Thorns Pre- One 7th · 1-0-4 · GD -11 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 93% |
6–1 | 2.84 | 2.72 | Bank it |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
Boise Thorns Pre- One 7th · 1-0-4 · GD -11 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 93% |
6–1 | 2.84 | 2.73 | Bank it |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
Utah Avalanche Pre- North 3rd · 5-0-2 · GD +17 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
3–1 | 2.19 | 2.70 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La Roca FC Pre North T1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 3 | +24 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.08 | -0.59 | 100% | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Boise Thorns Pre- One · Fri Oct 23 vs Utah Avalanche Pre- North · Sat Oct 24 vs Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Utah Avalanche Pre- South | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 15 | 2.50 | WWLWW | +0.32 | -0.40 | 100% | 2.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 at Boise Thorns Pre- One · Sat Oct 24 at Utah Avalanche Pre- North · Sat Nov 7 at La Roca FC Pre South See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Utah Avalanche Pre- North | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 27 | 10 | +17 | 15 | 2.14 | WWWLW | -0.62 | -0.02 | 99% | 2.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Oct 23 at La Roca FC Pre North T1 · Sat Oct 24 vs Utah Avalanche Pre- South · Sat Oct 31 at Utah Surf PRE Blue See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Utah Surf PRE Blue | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 17 | +2 | 9 | 1.50 | LWWWL | +0.90 | -0.46 | 75% | 4.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Aug 29 at Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I · Fri Oct 23 at Idaho Rush Pre- Blue · Fri Oct 23 at Boise Thorns Pre- One See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | La Roca FC Pre South | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 9 | 1.29 | LWLWL | -0.44 | +0.21 | 1% | 6.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 vs Idaho Rush Pre- Blue · Fri Oct 23 at Boise Thorns Pre- One · Sat Oct 24 at Boise Thorns Pre- One See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Idaho Rush Pre- Blue | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 6 | 1.00 | LLWLW | +0.12 | -0.67 | 25% | 4.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 at La Roca FC Pre South · Fri Oct 23 vs Utah Surf PRE Blue · Sat Oct 24 vs Utah Surf PRE Blue See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Boise Thorns Pre- One | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 3 | 0.60 | LLLLW | -0.65 | +0.77 | 0% | 6.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 vs Utah Avalanche Pre- South · Sat Oct 17 at La Roca FC Pre North T1 · Fri Oct 23 vs Utah Surf PRE Blue See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 37 | -32 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.05 | +1.01 | 0% | 8.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Aug 29 vs Utah Surf PRE Blue · Sat Oct 24 at La Roca FC Pre North T1 · Sat Nov 7 vs Utah Avalanche Pre- North See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.89 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.