Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Utah GU11 · 8 teams · Utah Avalanche (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:30 AM
La Roca Park, Field 3 ↗ far trip
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 0–9 (expected goals 0.7 for, 9.0 against · 0.00 expected points)
| Season so far | Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I | La Roca FC Pre North T1 |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 8th | 1st |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-6 | 7-0-0 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.8 | 5.4 |
| Goals against / game | 6.2 | 0.6 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 4 |
| Held scoreless | 3 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L L L | W W W W W |
| Biggest win | — | 12–0 at Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I |
| Worst loss | 0–12 vs La Roca FC Pre North T1 | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -3.53 | +3.24 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.01 | -0.17 |
Already played this season: Thu Sep 17 0–12 vs La Roca FC Pre North T1 (L)
Common opponents: Utah Avalanche Pre- North — we 1–7; they 3–0, 3–1. Idaho Rush Pre- Blue — we 0–5; they 3–2. Boise Thorns Pre- One — we 3–7; they 8–0.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
La Roca FC Pre North T1 score 5.4/game — well above the league's 2.7.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Hard to break down
La Roca FC Pre North T1 concede only 0.6/game with 4 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–12 vs La Roca FC Pre North T1, 0–4 at La Roca FC Pre South, 0–5 vs Idaho Rush Pre- Blue.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 0%; a draw (0%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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They arrive in form
La Roca FC Pre North T1 have won 7 straight.Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
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Away game
Kickoff 11:30 AM at La Roca Park.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the La Roca FC Pre North T1 game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I – La Roca FC Pre North T1) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.00 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 8th— holds |
| Win 0.43 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 8th— holds |
| Draw 0.14 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 8th— holds |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 8th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–9 loss we stay 8th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th 1%
- 8th 99%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.05 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La Roca FC Pre North T1 | 3.00 (+3.00) | 1st (2.80) | 57 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 54 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Utah Avalanche Pre- South | 2.50 (+2.50) | 2nd (2.21) | 48 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Utah Avalanche Pre- North | 1.88 (+1.88) | 3rd (1.94) | 36 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection |
| 4 | Utah Surf PRE Blue | 1.88 (+1.88) | 4th (1.80) | 36 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection |
| 5 | La Roca FC Pre South | 1.29 (+1.29) | 6th (1.01) | 25 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 6 | Idaho Rush Pre- Blue | 0.86 (+0.86) | 5th (1.36) | 17 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection |
| 7 | Boise Thorns Pre- One | 0.43 (+0.43) | 7th (0.55) | 9 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection |
How the results connect
33 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I to La Roca FC Pre North T1 through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +1.03 · 1st hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Aug 29 TBD no score posted |
Utah Surf PRE Blue 4th · 5-0-3 · GD +4 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
1–4 | 0.19 | 0.03 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 24 11:30 AM |
La Roca FC Pre North T1 1st · 7-0-0 · GD +34 |
Away far trip
La Roca Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
0–9 | 0.00 | 0.02 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 TBD |
Utah Avalanche Pre- North 3rd · 5-0-3 · GD +15 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
1–5 | 0.10 | 0.03 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 21 TBD |
Utah Avalanche Pre- South 2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +12 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
1–5 | 0.09 | 0.04 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 10:30 AM |
Utah Avalanche Pre- South 2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +12 |
Away far trip
Rockwell Training Facility |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
0–6 | 0.05 | 0.04 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 04:30 PM |
La Roca FC Pre North T1 1st · 7-0-0 · GD +34 |
Away far trip
La Roca Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
0–9 | 0.00 | 0.04 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 12:00 PM |
Utah Avalanche Pre- North 3rd · 5-0-3 · GD +15 |
Away far trip
Rockwell Training Facility |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
1–6 | 0.05 | 0.04 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
Utah Avalanche Pre- South 2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +12 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
1–5 | 0.09 | 0.04 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Utah Surf PRE Blue 4th · 5-0-3 · GD +4 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
1–5 | 0.10 | 0.05 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Utah Surf PRE Blue 4th · 5-0-3 · GD +4 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
1–4 | 0.19 | 0.05 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 09:00 AM |
Idaho Rush Pre- Blue 6th · 2-0-5 · GD -3 |
Away far trip
Optimist Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 5% |
1–4 | 0.21 | 0.06 | Upside |
| Sat May 8 09:00 AM |
Idaho Rush Pre- Blue 6th · 2-0-5 · GD -3 |
Away far trip
Optimist Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 5% |
1–4 | 0.21 | 0.07 | Upside |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
La Roca FC Pre South 5th · 3-0-4 · GD -10 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 17% |
1–3 | 0.64 | 0.10 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | La Roca FC Pre North T1 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 38 | 4 | +34 | 21 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.17 | -0.74 | 100% | 1.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I · Sat Nov 7 vs Utah Surf PRE Blue · Sat Nov 21 at La Roca FC Pre South See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Utah Avalanche Pre- South | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 15 | 2.50 | WWLWW | +0.37 | -0.47 | 100% | 2.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 at Boise Thorns Pre- One · Sat Oct 24 at Utah Avalanche Pre- North · Sat Nov 7 at La Roca FC Pre South See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Utah Avalanche Pre- North | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 28 | 13 | +15 | 15 | 1.88 | WWLWL | -0.06 | -0.29 | 98% | 3.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Utah Avalanche Pre- South · Sat Oct 31 at Utah Surf PRE Blue · Sat Nov 7 at Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Utah Surf PRE Blue | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 18 | +4 | 15 | 1.88 | WWLWW | +0.33 | -0.41 | 92% | 3.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Aug 29 at Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I · Sat Oct 24 at Idaho Rush Pre- Blue · Sat Oct 24 at Boise Thorns Pre- One See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | La Roca FC Pre South | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 9 | 1.29 | LWLWL | -0.53 | +0.15 | 1% | 5.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 vs Idaho Rush Pre- Blue · Fri Oct 23 at Boise Thorns Pre- One · Sat Oct 24 at Boise Thorns Pre- One See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Idaho Rush Pre- Blue | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 6 | 0.86 | LWLWL | +0.16 | -0.86 | 10% | 5.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 at La Roca FC Pre South · Sat Oct 24 vs Utah Surf PRE Blue · Sat Oct 24 vs La Roca FC Pre South See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Boise Thorns Pre- One | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 34 | -20 | 3 | 0.43 | LLLWL | +0.10 | +0.66 | 0% | 6.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 vs Utah Avalanche Pre- South · Fri Oct 23 vs La Roca FC Pre South · Sat Oct 24 vs La Roca FC Pre South See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Utah Avalanche NUU Avalanche Pre- I | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 37 | -32 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | -0.01 | +1.03 | 0% | 8.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Aug 29 vs Utah Surf PRE Blue · Sat Oct 24 at La Roca FC Pre North T1 · Sat Nov 7 vs Utah Avalanche Pre- North See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.70 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.