Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Ohio Valley GU10 (2016-2017) · 7 teams · Pittsburgh Riverhounds (all teams)

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4th

2-1-1 record · 4 played

1.75 points per game

+0 goal diff · 10–10

DLWWlast 4

83% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.8

-0.25 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:00 PM

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Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre
4th · 1.75 PPG

WNY Flash Pre
5th · 1.40 PPG

Montour Junction Sports Complex, Indoor 3 ↗

54% 19% 27%

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.5 for, 1.8 against · 1.81 expected points)

Season so far	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre	WNY Flash Pre
Position	4th	5th
Record (W-D-L)	2-1-1	2-1-2
Points per game	1.75	1.40
Goals for / game	2.5	1.6
Goals against / game	2.5	2.2
Clean sheets	1	1
Held scoreless	0	1
Form (recent first)	W W L D	W W L D L
Biggest win	2–0 vs Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution	3–1 vs Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution
Worst loss	3–6 at Internationals SC Pre	0–4 at Cleveland Force Pre- Blue
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.01	-0.44
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.25	-0.26

Common opponents: Cleveland Force Pre- Blue — we 1–1; they 0–4. Internationals SC Pre — we 3–6; they 1–4. Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution — we 2–0; they 3–1, 2–0. Ohio Premier Academy UA GU2016/17 Black — we 4–3; they 2–2.

Game plan

Swing game — small margins
Win 54% / draw 19% / loss 27%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the WNY Flash Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre – WNY Flash Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.00 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds
Win 2.00 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds
Draw 1.60 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds
Loss 1.40 PPG	5th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 1	6th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

3% finish 1st

83% top 4

17% below the top 4

3.8 average finish

1st 3%
2nd 6%
3rd 17%
4th 58%
5th 16%
6th 1%
7th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 2.38 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	GTFC Impact Pre	2.25 (+0.50)	3rd (2.04)	11 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection
2	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue	2.17 (+0.42)	1st (2.15)	11 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection
3	Internationals SC Pre	2.14 (+0.39)	2nd (2.15)	11 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection

How the results connect

18 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre to WNY Flash Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

9 favour us

4 even

5 favour them

+1.1 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.15 · 5th hardest of 6

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 02:00 PM	WNY Flash Pre 5th · 2-1-2 · GD -3	Home Montour Junction Sports Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	54%	2–1	1.81	1.76	Swing game
Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM	GTFC Impact Pre 1st · 3-0-1 · GD +9	Home Montour Junction Sports Complex	●●●●○ Tough	27%	2–2	0.98	1.63	Upside
Sun Oct 25 08:00 AM	WNY Flash Pre 5th · 2-1-2 · GD -3	Home Montour Junction Sports Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	54%	2–1	1.81	1.66	Swing game
Sat Oct 31 10:15 AM	Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution 6th · 1-0-3 · GD -5	Away far trip Northern Steel Beacon Soccer Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	52%	2–1	1.77	1.67	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

GTFC Impact Pre

2.25

WLWW

-0.46

+0.15

98%

2.5

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Internationals SC Pre (3rd)	2–0
W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Ohio Premier Academy UA GU2016/17 Black (7th)	6–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (2nd)	2–5
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Ohio Premier Academy UA GU2016/17 Black (7th)	5–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre · Sat Oct 24 at WNY Flash Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (4th)	2–2	56%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	WNY Flash Pre (5th)	2–1	63%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution (6th)	2–1	69%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (2nd)	2–2	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cleveland Force Pre- Blue

+18

2.17

WLWWW

-0.03

+0.14

100%

1.9

W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Ohio Premier Academy UA GU2016/17 Black (7th)	9–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	WNY Flash Pre (5th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	GTFC Impact Pre (1st)	5–2
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Internationals SC Pre (3rd)	2–3
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Internationals SC Pre (3rd)	5–2
D	Sat Aug 29	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (4th)	1–1

Next: Sun Nov 1 at GTFC Impact Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	GTFC Impact Pre (1st)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution (6th)	3–0	85%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Internationals SC Pre

+11

2.14

WWWLW

-0.17

-0.83

100%

2.0

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Ohio Premier Academy UA GU2016/17 Black (7th)	4–0
L	Sun Oct 18	at	GTFC Impact Pre (1st)	0–2
W	Sun Oct 4	at	WNY Flash Pre (5th)	4–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Ohio Premier Academy UA GU2016/17 Black (7th)	7–2
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (2nd)	3–2
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (2nd)	2–5
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (4th)	6–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution (6th)	2–1	68%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre

1.75

DLWW

-0.25

-0.15

83%

3.8

W	Sun Oct 4	at	Ohio Premier Academy UA GU2016/17 Black (7th)	4–3
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution (6th)	2–0
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Internationals SC Pre (3rd)	3–6
D	Sat Aug 29	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (2nd)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs WNY Flash Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs GTFC Impact Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs WNY Flash Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	WNY Flash Pre (5th)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	GTFC Impact Pre (1st)	2–2	27%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	WNY Flash Pre (5th)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution (6th)	2–1	52%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

WNY Flash Pre

-3

1.40

LDLWW

-0.26

+0.38

19%

4.9

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution (6th)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution (6th)	3–1
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Internationals SC Pre (3rd)	1–4
D	Sat Oct 3	at	Ohio Premier Academy UA GU2016/17 Black (7th)	2–2
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (2nd)	0–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs GTFC Impact Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (4th)	1–2	27%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	GTFC Impact Pre (1st)	1–2	20%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (4th)	1–2	27%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution

-5

0.75

LWLL

-0.84

+1.01

5.9

L	Sat Oct 17	at	WNY Flash Pre (5th)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 17	at	WNY Flash Pre (5th)	1–3
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Ohio Premier Academy UA GU2016/17 Black (7th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (4th)	0–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs GTFC Impact Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs Internationals SC Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	GTFC Impact Pre (1st)	1–2	15%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Internationals SC Pre (3rd)	1–2	16%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (4th)	1–2	27%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (2nd)	0–3	6%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Ohio Premier Academy UA GU2016/17 Black

-30

0.13

DLLLL

+0.61

—

7.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.33 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.