Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Ohio Valley GU10 (2016-2017) · 7 teams · Northern Steel (all teams)

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6th

1-0-3 record · 4 played

0.75 points per game

-5 goal diff · 3–8

LWLLlast 4

1% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.9

-0.84 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 09:30 AM

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Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution
6th · 0.75 PPG

GTFC Impact Pre
1st · 2.25 PPG

Northern Steel Beacon Soccer Complex, Field 1 ↗

15% 16% 69%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.2 for, 2.7 against · 0.60 expected points)

Season so far	Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution	GTFC Impact Pre
Position	6th	1st
Record (W-D-L)	1-0-3	3-0-1
Points per game	0.75	2.25
Goals for / game	0.8	3.8
Goals against / game	2.0	1.5
Clean sheets	0	2
Held scoreless	2	0
Form (recent first)	L L W L	W W L W
Biggest win	2–1 at Ohio Premier Academy UA GU2016/17 Black	6–0 vs Ohio Premier Academy UA GU2016/17 Black
Worst loss	0–2 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre	2–5 at Cleveland Force Pre- Blue
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.83	+1.12
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.84	-0.46

Common opponents: Ohio Premier Academy UA GU2016/17 Black — we 2–1; they 5–1, 6–0.

Game plan

Respect their attack
GTFC Impact Pre score 3.8/game — well above the league's 2.3.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–2 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre, 0–2 at WNY Flash Pre.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 15%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Early kickoff
Game time 09:30 AM.
Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the GTFC Impact Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution – GTFC Impact Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 0.60 PPG	6th— holds	6th— holds	6th— holds
Win 1.20 PPG	6th— holds	5th▲ up 1	6th— holds
Draw 0.80 PPG	6th— holds	6th— holds	6th— holds
Loss 0.60 PPG	6th— holds	6th— holds	6th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 6th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

1% top 4

99% below the top 4

5.9 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd <1%
4th 1%
5th 9%
6th 90%
7th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 1.88 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	GTFC Impact Pre	2.25 (+1.50)	3rd (2.04)	15 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue	2.17 (+1.42)	1st (2.15)	15 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	Internationals SC Pre	2.14 (+1.39)	2nd (2.15)	15 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre	1.75 (+1.00)	4th (1.67)	11 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection
5	WNY Flash Pre	1.40 (+0.65)	5th (1.22)	9 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection

How the results connect

17 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution to GTFC Impact Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us

16 favour them

-5.3 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +1.01 · 1st hardest of 6

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Oct 25 09:30 AM	GTFC Impact Pre 1st · 3-0-1 · GD +9	Home Northern Steel Beacon Soccer Complex	●●●●● Very tough	15%	1–2	0.60	0.72	Upside
Sun Oct 25 12:00 PM	Internationals SC Pre 3rd · 5-0-2 · GD +11	Home Northern Steel Beacon Soccer Complex	●●●●● Very tough	16%	1–2	0.63	0.71	Upside
Sat Oct 31 10:15 AM	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre 4th · 2-1-1 · GD +0	Home Northern Steel Beacon Soccer Complex	●●●●○ Tough	27%	1–2	1.03	0.75	Upside
Sat Nov 7 11:30 AM	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue 2nd · 4-1-1 · GD +18	Away far trip Sportsplex · turf	●●●●● Very tough	6%	0–3	0.26	0.69	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

GTFC Impact Pre

2.25

WLWW

-0.46

+0.15

98%

2.5

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Internationals SC Pre (3rd)	2–0
W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Ohio Premier Academy UA GU2016/17 Black (7th)	6–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (2nd)	2–5
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Ohio Premier Academy UA GU2016/17 Black (7th)	5–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre · Sat Oct 24 at WNY Flash Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (4th)	2–2	56%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	WNY Flash Pre (5th)	2–1	63%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution (6th)	2–1	69%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (2nd)	2–2	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cleveland Force Pre- Blue

+18

2.17

WLWWW

-0.03

+0.14

100%

1.8

W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Ohio Premier Academy UA GU2016/17 Black (7th)	9–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	WNY Flash Pre (5th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	GTFC Impact Pre (1st)	5–2
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Internationals SC Pre (3rd)	2–3
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Internationals SC Pre (3rd)	5–2
D	Sat Aug 29	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (4th)	1–1

Next: Sun Nov 1 at GTFC Impact Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	GTFC Impact Pre (1st)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution (6th)	3–0	85%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Internationals SC Pre

+11

2.14

WWWLW

-0.17

-0.83

100%

2.1

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Ohio Premier Academy UA GU2016/17 Black (7th)	4–0
L	Sun Oct 18	at	GTFC Impact Pre (1st)	0–2
W	Sun Oct 4	at	WNY Flash Pre (5th)	4–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Ohio Premier Academy UA GU2016/17 Black (7th)	7–2
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (2nd)	3–2
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (2nd)	2–5
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (4th)	6–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution (6th)	2–1	68%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre

1.75

DLWW

-0.25

-0.15

80%

3.9

W	Sun Oct 4	at	Ohio Premier Academy UA GU2016/17 Black (7th)	4–3
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution (6th)	2–0
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Internationals SC Pre (3rd)	3–6
D	Sat Aug 29	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (2nd)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs WNY Flash Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs GTFC Impact Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs WNY Flash Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	WNY Flash Pre (5th)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	GTFC Impact Pre (1st)	2–2	27%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	WNY Flash Pre (5th)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution (6th)	2–1	52%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

WNY Flash Pre

-3

1.40

LDLWW

-0.26

+0.38

22%

4.8

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution (6th)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution (6th)	3–1
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Internationals SC Pre (3rd)	1–4
D	Sat Oct 3	at	Ohio Premier Academy UA GU2016/17 Black (7th)	2–2
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (2nd)	0–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs GTFC Impact Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (4th)	1–2	27%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	GTFC Impact Pre (1st)	1–2	20%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (4th)	1–2	27%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution

-5

0.75

LWLL

-0.84

+1.01

5.9

L	Sat Oct 17	at	WNY Flash Pre (5th)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 17	at	WNY Flash Pre (5th)	1–3
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Ohio Premier Academy UA GU2016/17 Black (7th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (4th)	0–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs GTFC Impact Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs Internationals SC Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	GTFC Impact Pre (1st)	1–2	15%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Internationals SC Pre (3rd)	1–2	16%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (4th)	1–2	27%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (2nd)	0–3	6%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Ohio Premier Academy UA GU2016/17 Black

-30

0.13

DLLLL

+0.61

—

7.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.33 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.