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Internationals SC Pre

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Ohio Valley GU10 (2016-2017) · 7 teams · Internationals SC (all teams)

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3rd
5-0-2 record · 7 played
2.14 points per game
+11 goal diff · 26–15
WWWLWlast 5
100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.1
-0.17 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 12:00 PM

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Internationals SC Pre
3rd · 2.14 PPG
at

Northern Steel Beacon Soccer Complex, Field 1 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.9 for, 1.4 against · 2.21 expected points)

Season so farInternationals SC PreNorthern Steel Select Soccer Revolution
Position3rd6th
Record (W-D-L)5-0-21-0-3
Points per game2.140.75
Goals for / game3.70.8
Goals against / game2.12.0
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless12
Form (recent first)W L W W WL L W L
Biggest win7–2 vs Ohio Premier Academy UA GU2016/17 Black2–1 at Ohio Premier Academy UA GU2016/17 Black
Worst loss2–5 at Cleveland Force Pre- Blue0–2 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.05-0.83
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.17-0.84

Common opponents: Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre — we 6–3; they 0–2. Ohio Premier Academy UA GU2016/17 Black — we 7–2, 4–0; they 2–1. WNY Flash Pre — we 4–1; they 1–3, 0–2.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution average 0.8 goals/game (league avg 2.3); blanked in 2 of 4.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 at GTFC Impact Pre.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 68% / draw 16% / loss 16%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 12:00 PM at Northern Steel Beacon Soccer Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Cleveland Force Pre- Blue sit 2nd on 2.17 PPG; we are on 2.14.

    A point moves us above Cleveland Force Pre- Blue on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Internationals SC Pre – Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.25 PPG
1st▲ up 2 2nd▲ up 1 3rd— holds
Win
2.25 PPG
1st▲ up 2 2nd▲ up 1 3rd— holds
Draw
2.00 PPG
3rd— holds 3rd— holds 4th▼ down 1
Loss
1.88 PPG
3rd— holds 4th▼ down 1 5th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

23% finish 1st
100% top 4
0% below the top 4
2.1 average finish
  1. 1st 23%
  2. 2nd 51%
  3. 3rd 23%
  4. 4th 3%
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 1 remaining known games (max 2.25 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 GTFC Impact Pre 2.25 (+0.11) 3rd (2.04) Win next game
2 Cleveland Force Pre- Blue 2.17 (+0.03) 1st (2.15) A point next game

How the results connect

23 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Internationals SC Pre to Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

22 favour us
1 favour them
+4.5 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
4–0 1–2 7–2 4–1 3–1 2–0 6–3 2–0 0–2 5–1 2–5 1–1 2–2 6–0 3–2 4–3 4–0 Internationals SC P… 3rd Ohio Premier Academ… 7th WNY Flash Pre 5th Pittsburgh Riverhou… 4th GTFC Impact Pre 1st Cleveland Force Pre… 2nd Northern Steel Sele… 6th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

1st 4th 7th Aug 22 Aug 30 Sep 19 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.83 · 6th hardest of 6

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
12:00 PM
Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution
6th · 1-0-3 · GD -5
Away far trip
Northern Steel Beacon Soccer Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
68%
2–1 2.21 2.15 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 GTFC Impact Pre 4301 156+9 92.25 WLWW -0.46 +0.15 97% 2.5
2 Cleveland Force Pre- Blue 6411 268+18 132.17 WLWWW -0.03 +0.14 100% 1.8
3 Internationals SC Pre 7502 2615+11 152.14 WWWLW -0.17 -0.83 100% 2.1
4 Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre 4211 1010+0 71.75 DLWW -0.25 -0.15 82% 3.8
5 WNY Flash Pre 5212 811-3 71.40 LDLWW -0.26 +0.38 20% 4.8
6 Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution 4103 38-5 30.75 LWLL -0.84 +1.01 1% 5.9
7 Ohio Premier Academy UA GU2016/17 Black 8017 939-30 10.13 DLLLL +0.61 — 0% 7.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.33 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.