GTFC Impact Pre

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Ohio Valley GU10 (2016-2017) · 7 teams · GTFC Impact (all teams)

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1st

5-0-1 record · 6 played

2.50 points per game

+13 goal diff · 22–9

LWWWWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.7

-0.43 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 09:30 AM

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GTFC Impact Pre
1st · 2.50 PPG

Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution
6th · 0.75 PPG

Northern Steel Beacon Soccer Complex, Field 1 ↗ far trip

72% 15% 13%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.8 for, 1.1 against · 2.30 expected points)

Season so far	GTFC Impact Pre	Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution
Position	1st	6th
Record (W-D-L)	5-0-1	1-0-3
Points per game	2.50	0.75
Goals for / game	3.7	0.8
Goals against / game	1.5	2.0
Clean sheets	2	0
Held scoreless	0	2
Form (recent first)	W W W W L	L L W L
Biggest win	6–0 vs Ohio Premier Academy UA GU2016/17 Black	2–1 at Ohio Premier Academy UA GU2016/17 Black
Worst loss	2–5 at Cleveland Force Pre- Blue	0–2 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.31	-0.83
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.43	-0.98

Common opponents: Ohio Premier Academy UA GU2016/17 Black — we 5–1, 6–0; they 2–1. Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre — we 2–1; they 0–2. WNY Flash Pre — we 5–2; they 1–3, 0–2.

Game plan

They struggle to score
Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution average 0.8 goals/game (league avg 2.4); blanked in 2 of 4.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 72% chance; likely score 2–1.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Away game
Kickoff 09:30 AM at Northern Steel Beacon Soccer Complex.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
Early kickoff
Game time 09:30 AM.
Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (GTFC Impact Pre – Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.57 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 2.57 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.29 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Loss 2.14 PPG	2nd▼ down 1	3rd▼ down 2	3rd▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

53% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.7 average finish

1st 53%
2nd 23%
3rd 24%
4th 1%
5th
6th
7th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

22 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link GTFC Impact Pre to Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

21 favour us

1 favour them

+4.8 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.51 · 2nd hardest of 6

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Oct 25 09:30 AM	Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution 6th · 1-0-3 · GD -5	Away far trip Northern Steel Beacon Soccer Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	72%	2–1	2.30	2.47	Bank it
Sun Nov 1 10:00 AM	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue 2nd · 4-1-1 · GD +18	Home Rossford Soccer Center Dome · turf	●●●●○ Tough	38%	2–2	1.34	2.33	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

GTFC Impact Pre

+13

2.50

LWWWW

-0.43

+0.51

100%

1.7

W	Sat Oct 24	at	WNY Flash Pre (5th)	5–2
W	Sat Oct 24	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (4th)	2–1
W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Internationals SC Pre (3rd)	2–0
W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Ohio Premier Academy UA GU2016/17 Black (7th)	6–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (2nd)	2–5
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Ohio Premier Academy UA GU2016/17 Black (7th)	5–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution · Sun Nov 1 vs Cleveland Force Pre- Blue See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution (6th)	2–1	72%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (2nd)	2–2	38%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cleveland Force Pre- Blue

+18

2.17

WLWWW

-0.05

+0.24

100%

2.0

W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Ohio Premier Academy UA GU2016/17 Black (7th)	9–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	WNY Flash Pre (5th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	GTFC Impact Pre (1st)	5–2
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Internationals SC Pre (3rd)	2–3
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Internationals SC Pre (3rd)	5–2
D	Sat Aug 29	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (4th)	1–1

Next: Sun Nov 1 at GTFC Impact Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	GTFC Impact Pre (1st)	2–2	43%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution (6th)	3–0	85%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Internationals SC Pre

+11

2.14

WWWLW

-0.18

-0.83

100%

2.3

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Ohio Premier Academy UA GU2016/17 Black (7th)	4–0
L	Sun Oct 18	at	GTFC Impact Pre (1st)	0–2
W	Sun Oct 4	at	WNY Flash Pre (5th)	4–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Ohio Premier Academy UA GU2016/17 Black (7th)	7–2
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (2nd)	3–2
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (2nd)	2–5
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (4th)	6–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution (6th)	2–1	68%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre

-1

1.40

DLWWL

+0.13

-0.74

88%

4.1

L	Sat Oct 24	vs	GTFC Impact Pre (1st)	1–2
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Ohio Premier Academy UA GU2016/17 Black (7th)	4–3
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution (6th)	2–0
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Internationals SC Pre (3rd)	3–6
D	Sat Aug 29	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (2nd)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs WNY Flash Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs WNY Flash Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	WNY Flash Pre (5th)	2–1	57%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	WNY Flash Pre (5th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution (6th)	2–1	50%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

WNY Flash Pre

-6

1.17

DLWWL

+0.02

-0.06

12%

5.0

L	Sat Oct 24	vs	GTFC Impact Pre (1st)	2–5
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution (6th)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution (6th)	3–1
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Internationals SC Pre (3rd)	1–4
D	Sat Oct 3	at	Ohio Premier Academy UA GU2016/17 Black (7th)	2–2
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (2nd)	0–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (4th)	1–2	25%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (4th)	1–2	25%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Northern Steel Select Soccer Revolution

-5

0.75

LWLL

-0.98

+1.04

5.9

L	Sat Oct 17	at	WNY Flash Pre (5th)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 17	at	WNY Flash Pre (5th)	1–3
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Ohio Premier Academy UA GU2016/17 Black (7th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (4th)	0–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs GTFC Impact Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs Internationals SC Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	GTFC Impact Pre (1st)	1–2	13%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Internationals SC Pre (3rd)	1–2	16%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (4th)	1–2	28%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (2nd)	0–3	6%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Ohio Premier Academy UA GU2016/17 Black

-30

0.13

DLLLL

+0.61

—

7.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.36 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.