TableChase Clubs

PUNSC Pre

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- North Atlantic GU12 · 10 teams · Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (all teams)

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1st
4-1-0 record · 5 played
2.60 points per game
+6 goal diff · 14–8
WWWWDlast 5
96% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.0
+0.16 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:15 AM

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PUNSC Pre
1st · 2.60 PPG
at
FC DELCO Pre
3rd · 2.00 PPG

Parkside Fields, Field 3 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.1 for, 2.3 against · 1.32 expected points)

Season so farPUNSC PreFC DELCO Pre
Position1st3rd
Record (W-D-L)4-1-04-2-1
Points per game2.602.00
Goals for / game2.83.0
Goals against / game1.61.9
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)D W W W WL W D W W
Biggest win3–1 vs Pipeline SC Pre5–1 vs PDA Blue Pre
Worst loss—1–4 at Maryland United FC Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.75+0.63
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.16-0.40

Common opponents: Pipeline SC Pre — we 3–1; they 3–3. Bethesda SC Pre — we 4–3; they 5–3. Maryland United FC Pre — we 2–1; they 1–4. Match Fit Surf Pre — we 4–2; they 3–1. Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre — we 1–1; they 1–1.

Game plan

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 38%; a draw (20%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:15 AM at Parkside Fields.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:15 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC DELCO Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (PUNSC Pre – FC DELCO Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 2.33 PPG
1st— holds 2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1
Win
2.67 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Draw
2.33 PPG
1st— holds 2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1
Loss
2.17 PPG
2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 1st even if every rival loses, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

45% finish 1st
96% top 4
5% below the top 4
2.0 average finish
  1. 1st 45%
  2. 2nd 27%
  3. 3rd 15%
  4. 4th 8%
  5. 5th 3%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th
  10. 10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

20 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link PUNSC Pre to FC DELCO Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

8 favour us
5 even
7 favour them
+0.7 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–1 1–1 4–2 1–3 4–3 3–5 3–1 3–3 2–1 4–1 3–0 0–3 3–1 1–5 2–3 3–0 3–4 6–4 3–2 PUNSC Pre 1st Penn Fusion Soccer … 6th Match Fit Surf Pre 4th Bethesda SC Pre 5th Pipeline SC Pre 7th Maryland United FC … 8th HEX FC Bucks Pre- G… 10th PDA Blue Pre 9th FC DELCO Pre 3rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 5th 10th Aug 29 Sep 12 Sep 20 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.18 · 10th hardest of 10

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:15 AM
FC DELCO Pre
3rd · 4-2-1 · GD +8
Away far trip
Parkside Fields
●●●●○ Tough
38%
2–2 1.32 2.39 Upside
Sat Oct 31
10:15 AM
HEX FC Bucks Pre- Gray
10th · 0-0-5 · GD -23
Away far trip
Council Rock South High School
●○○○○ Favorable
87%
3–0 2.69 2.43 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
12:15 PM
PDA Blue Pre
9th · 1-1-4 · GD -8
Home
Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
3–1 2.24 2.41 Bank it
Sat Nov 14
05:00 PM
PDA White Pre- Mon l
2nd · 3-2-0 · GD +10
Home
Ukrainian AMerican Sports Center
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
2–2 1.53 2.31 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
12:00 PM
Pipeline SC Pre
7th · 1-2-3 · GD -3
Away far trip
Baltimore Polytechnic Institute
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
2–2 1.78 2.26 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
TBD
PDA White Pre- Mon l
2nd · 3-2-0 · GD +10
Away
●●●●○ Tough
34%
2–2 1.18 2.16 Upside
Sun Apr 11
TBD
Maryland United FC Pre
8th · 1-0-3 · GD -1
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
2–1 1.97 2.14 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
TBD
Match Fit Surf Pre
4th · 3-1-2 · GD +7
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
2–2 1.66 2.11 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
TBD
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre
6th · 2-2-2 · GD +2
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%
2–1 1.52 2.07 Swing game
Sat May 1
TBD
FC DELCO Pre
3rd · 4-2-1 · GD +8
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
2–2 1.64 2.04 Swing game
Sun May 2
TBD
Bethesda SC Pre
5th · 3-1-2 · GD +2
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
2–2 1.60 2.01 Swing game
Sat May 8
TBD
HEX FC Bucks Pre- Gray
10th · 0-0-5 · GD -23
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
92%
4–0 2.81 2.06 Bank it
Sat May 15
10:30 AM
PDA Blue Pre
9th · 1-1-4 · GD -8
Away far trip
PDA Main Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
3–2 1.95 2.05 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 PUNSC Pre 5410 148+6 132.60 WWWWD +0.16 -0.18 96% 2.0
2 PDA White Pre- Mon l 5320 2212+10 112.20 DWWWD -0.56 +0.02 93% 2.3
3 FC DELCO Pre 7421 2113+8 142.00 WWDWL -0.40 +0.10 77% 3.4
4 Match Fit Surf Pre 6312 2114+7 101.67 WWLLW -0.13 -0.06 70% 3.8
5 Bethesda SC Pre 6312 1715+2 101.67 WLWWD -0.37 +0.13 28% 5.5
6 Penn Fusion Soccer Academy Pre 6222 1311+2 81.33 LLWDD -0.09 +0.01 23% 5.7
7 Pipeline SC Pre 6123 1518-3 50.83 WDLLD +0.32 -0.13 3% 7.5
8 Maryland United FC Pre 4103 910-1 30.75 LLLW +0.48 -0.14 10% 6.8
9 PDA Blue Pre 6114 1422-8 40.67 LLWLD +0.41 -0.12 1% 8.0
10 HEX FC Bucks Pre- Gray 5005 124-23 00.00 LLLLL +0.54 +0.18 0% 10.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.54 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.