Real Colorado Pre- National
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Colorado GU12 · 7 teams · Real Colorado (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 1, 12:30 PM
Highland Heritage Regional Park, HHRP West Field 02 ↗
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.7 for, 1.2 against · 2.28 expected points)
| Season so far | Real Colorado Pre- National | Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-0-0 | 0-0-1 |
| Points per game | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 4.5 | 0.0 |
| Goals against / game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W W | L |
| Biggest win | 7–1 vs Colorado EDGE Pre- Select | — |
| Worst loss | — | 0–1 at Colorado Rush Pre- Blue |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.29 | -0.21 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.47 | +0.30 |
Game plan
-
They struggle to score
Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 1.9); blanked in 1 of 1.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 71% chance; likely score 2–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Real Colorado Pre- National – Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.33 PPG |
3rd▼ down 2 | 2nd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 2 |
| Loss 2.00 PPG |
3rd▼ down 2 | 2nd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 61%
- 2nd 25%
- 3rd 11%
- 4th 3%
- 5th <1%
- 6th
- 7th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
1 chain · 4 teams
Paths of results that link Real Colorado Pre- National to Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
2 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.10 · 7th hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 1 12:30 PM |
Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy 5th · 0-0-1 · GD -1 |
Home Highland Heritage Regional Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 71% |
2–1 | 2.28 | 2.76 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 15 10:30 AM |
Pride SC Pre- Predators 7th · 0-0-2 · GD -7 |
Home Highland Heritage Regional Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 89% |
4–1 | 2.73 | 2.75 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 22 10:30 AM |
Colorado Rush Pre- Blue 3rd · 2-0-0 · GD +2 |
Away Collegiate Academy of Colorado · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
1–1 | 1.68 | 2.54 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 21 10:30 AM |
Real Colorado Pre- Athletico 2nd · 1-0-0 · GD +4 |
Away Highland Heritage Regional Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
2–2 | 1.55 | 2.37 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Colorado Pre- National | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 6 | 3.00 | WW | -0.47 | -0.10 | 100% | 1.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy · Sun Nov 15 vs Pride SC Pre- Predators · Sun Nov 22 at Colorado Rush Pre- Blue See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Real Colorado Pre- Athletico | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 3 | 3.00 | W | -1.26 | +0.11 | 93% | 2.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Colorado Storm Pre- ELITE · Sun Nov 15 vs Colorado EDGE Pre- Select · Sun Nov 22 vs Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Colorado Rush Pre- Blue | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 6 | 3.00 | WW | -0.68 | +0.30 | 95% | 2.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Pride SC Pre- Predators · Sun Nov 22 vs Real Colorado Pre- National · Sat Mar 20 vs Real Colorado Pre- Athletico See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Colorado Storm Pre- ELITE | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 3 | 1.50 | LW | -0.09 | -0.09 | 82% | 3.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Real Colorado Pre- Athletico · Sun Nov 15 at Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy · Sun Mar 21 vs Colorado Rush Pre- Blue See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 0.00 | L | +0.30 | -0.00 | 25% | 5.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Real Colorado Pre- National · Sun Nov 15 vs Colorado Storm Pre- ELITE · Sun Nov 22 at Real Colorado Pre- Athletico See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Colorado EDGE Pre- Select | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 0 | 0.00 | LL | +0.84 | -0.08 | 3% | 6.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 15 at Real Colorado Pre- Athletico · Sun Nov 22 vs Pride SC Pre- Predators · Sun Mar 14 at Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Pride SC Pre- Predators | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 0 | 0.00 | LL | +0.57 | +0.04 | 2% | 6.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Colorado Rush Pre- Blue · Sun Nov 15 at Real Colorado Pre- National · Sun Nov 22 at Colorado EDGE Pre- Select See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.90 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.