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Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Colorado GU12 · 7 teams · Arsenal Colorado (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 15 hours ago.
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5th
0-0-1 record · 1 played
0.00 points per game
-1 goal diff · 0–1
Llast 1
25% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.0
+0.30 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, 12:30 PM

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Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy
5th · 0.00 PPG
at
Real Colorado Pre- National
1st · 3.00 PPG

Highland Heritage Regional Park, HHRP West Field 02 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.2 for, 2.7 against · 0.56 expected points)

Season so farArsenal Colorado Pre- AcademyReal Colorado Pre- National
Position5th1st
Record (W-D-L)0-0-12-0-0
Points per game0.003.00
Goals for / game0.04.5
Goals against / game1.01.0
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)LW W
Biggest win—7–1 vs Colorado EDGE Pre- Select
Worst loss0–1 at Colorado Rush Pre- Blue—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.21+1.29
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.30-0.47

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Real Colorado Pre- National score 4.5/game — well above the league's 1.9.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 14%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 12:30 PM at Highland Heritage Regional Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Colorado Storm Pre- ELITE sit 4th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 0.00.

    A win moves us above Colorado Storm Pre- ELITE on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Real Colorado Pre- National game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy – Real Colorado Pre- National) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.00 PPG		 5th— holds 5th— holds 6th▼ down 1
Win
1.50 PPG		 5th— holds 4th▲ up 1 5th— holds
Draw
0.50 PPG		 5th— holds 5th— holds 6th▼ down 1
Loss
0.00 PPG		 5th— holds 5th— holds 6th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 5th even if every rival loses, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
25% top 4
75% below the top 4
5.0 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 2%
  3. 3rd 6%
  4. 4th 17%
  5. 5th 45%
  6. 6th 21%
  7. 7th 9%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 5 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Real Colorado Pre- National 3.00 (+3.00) 1st (2.37) 18 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
2 Real Colorado Pre- Athletico 3.00 (+3.00) 3rd (1.95) 18 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection
3 Colorado Rush Pre- Blue 3.00 (+3.00) 2nd (1.96) 18 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection
4 Colorado Storm Pre- ELITE 1.50 (+1.50) 4th (1.61) Win next game

How the results connect

1 chain · 4 teams

Paths of results that link Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy to Real Colorado Pre- National through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
1 favour them
-6.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–1 2–1 1–7 Arsenal Colorado Pr… 5th Colorado Rush Pre- … 3rd Colorado EDGE Pre- … 6th Real Colorado Pre- … 1st

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

1 chains

Position over the season

2 game days

Not enough game days yet to draw a line.

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.00 · 4th hardest of 7

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Nov 1
12:30 PM		 Real Colorado Pre- National
1st · 2-0-0 · GD +7		 Away far trip
Highland Heritage Regional Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
14%		 1–2 0.56 0.28 Upside
Sun Nov 15
12:00 PM		 Colorado Storm Pre- ELITE
4th · 1-0-1 · GD +2		 Home
Fort Collins Soccer Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
30%		 1–1 1.14 0.57 Upside
Sun Nov 22
10:30 AM		 Real Colorado Pre- Athletico
2nd · 1-0-0 · GD +4		 Away far trip
Highland Heritage Regional Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
19%		 1–2 0.76 0.62 Upside
Sun Mar 14
TBD		 Colorado EDGE Pre- Select
6th · 0-0-2 · GD -7		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
60%		 2–1 1.99 0.89 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
11:00 AM		 Pride SC Pre- Predators
7th · 0-0-2 · GD -7		 Away far trip
Pride Soccer Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
52%		 1–1 1.78 1.04 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Real Colorado Pre- National 2200 92+7 63.00 WW -0.47 -0.10 100% 1.6
2 Real Colorado Pre- Athletico 1100 51+4 33.00 W -1.26 +0.11 93% 2.6
3 Colorado Rush Pre- Blue 2200 31+2 63.00 WW -0.68 +0.30 95% 2.8
4 Colorado Storm Pre- ELITE 2101 42+2 31.50 LW -0.09 -0.09 82% 3.5
5 Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy 1001 01-1 00.00 L +0.30 -0.00 25% 5.0
6 Colorado EDGE Pre- Select 2002 29-7 00.00 LL +0.84 -0.08 3% 6.2
7 Pride SC Pre- Predators 2002 18-7 00.00 LL +0.57 +0.04 2% 6.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.90 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.