Colorado Storm Pre- ELITE
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Colorado GU12 · 7 teams · Colorado Storm (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 1, 10:30 AM
Regis University, Match Pitch ↗
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.9 for, 1.9 against · 1.40 expected points)
| Season so far | Colorado Storm Pre- ELITE | Real Colorado Pre- Athletico |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-0-1 | 1-0-0 |
| Points per game | 1.50 | 3.00 |
| Goals for / game | 2.0 | 5.0 |
| Goals against / game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W L | W |
| Biggest win | 3–0 at Pride SC Pre- Predators | 5–1 vs Pride SC Pre- Predators |
| Worst loss | 1–2 vs Real Colorado Pre- National | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.41 | +0.76 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.09 | -1.26 |
Common opponents: Pride SC Pre- Predators — we 3–0; they 5–1.
Game plan
-
Respect their attack
Real Colorado Pre- Athletico score 5.0/game — well above the league's 1.9.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
-
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 39%; a draw (21%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Real Colorado Pre- Athletico game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Colorado Storm Pre- ELITE – Real Colorado Pre- Athletico) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.33 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 5th▼ down 1 |
| Win 2.00 PPG |
3rd▲ up 1 | 3rd▲ up 1 | 3rd▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.33 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 5th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.00 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 5th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 4th even if every rival loses, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 4%
- 2nd 16%
- 3rd 29%
- 4th 33%
- 5th 15%
- 6th 3%
- 7th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Colorado Pre- National | 3.00 (+1.50) | 1st (2.37) | 15 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection |
| 2 | Real Colorado Pre- Athletico | 3.00 (+1.50) | 3rd (1.95) | 15 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection |
| 3 | Colorado Rush Pre- Blue | 3.00 (+1.50) | 2nd (1.96) | 15 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection |
How the results connect
1 chain · 3 teams
Paths of results that link Colorado Storm Pre- ELITE to Real Colorado Pre- Athletico through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
2 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.09 · 6th hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 1 10:30 AM |
Real Colorado Pre- Athletico 2nd · 1-0-0 · GD +4 |
Home Regis University |
●●●●○ Tough | 39% |
1–1 | 1.40 | 1.47 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 12:00 PM |
Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy 5th · 0-0-1 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
Fort Collins Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
1–1 | 1.61 | 1.50 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 21 01:30 PM |
Colorado Rush Pre- Blue 3rd · 2-0-0 · GD +2 |
Home Regis University |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.53 | 1.51 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 10:30 AM |
Colorado EDGE Pre- Select 6th · 0-0-2 · GD -7 |
Away far trip
Long Lake Regional Park · turf |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
2–1 | 2.14 | 1.61 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Colorado Pre- National | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 6 | 3.00 | WW | -0.47 | -0.10 | 100% | 1.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy · Sun Nov 15 vs Pride SC Pre- Predators · Sun Nov 22 at Colorado Rush Pre- Blue See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Real Colorado Pre- Athletico | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 3 | 3.00 | W | -1.26 | +0.11 | 93% | 2.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Colorado Storm Pre- ELITE · Sun Nov 15 vs Colorado EDGE Pre- Select · Sun Nov 22 vs Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Colorado Rush Pre- Blue | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 6 | 3.00 | WW | -0.68 | +0.30 | 95% | 2.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Pride SC Pre- Predators · Sun Nov 22 vs Real Colorado Pre- National · Sat Mar 20 vs Real Colorado Pre- Athletico See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Colorado Storm Pre- ELITE | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 3 | 1.50 | LW | -0.09 | -0.09 | 82% | 3.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Real Colorado Pre- Athletico · Sun Nov 15 at Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy · Sun Mar 21 vs Colorado Rush Pre- Blue See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 0.00 | L | +0.30 | -0.00 | 25% | 5.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Real Colorado Pre- National · Sun Nov 15 vs Colorado Storm Pre- ELITE · Sun Nov 22 at Real Colorado Pre- Athletico See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Colorado EDGE Pre- Select | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 0 | 0.00 | LL | +0.84 | -0.08 | 3% | 6.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 15 at Real Colorado Pre- Athletico · Sun Nov 22 vs Pride SC Pre- Predators · Sun Mar 14 at Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Pride SC Pre- Predators | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 0 | 0.00 | LL | +0.57 | +0.04 | 2% | 6.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Colorado Rush Pre- Blue · Sun Nov 15 at Real Colorado Pre- National · Sun Nov 22 at Colorado EDGE Pre- Select See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.90 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.